Daily Market Report – Oct 05, 2022

The power outages are now at 320k in Florida according to PowerOutage.us. The impacts of the storm are almost completely gone a week after making landfall. The Atlantic is surprisingly quite going at the moment, which puts this season at one of the least active on record. So far we have only hit letter “I”.

In other weather bits: For the next 15 days, we see HDDs starting to crawl in and they are projected to net near or slightly above normal. The coldest period is set to be the 1-5 day period, which features widespread below normal anomalies east of the Mississippi River. By the 6-10 day period some moderation is expected, while in the 11-15 day period the models feature a widespread ranging from the much cooler GEFS to the warmer ECE solution. The coolish weather in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast looks to be a result of Ian.

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 101.4 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.64 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.11 Bcf/d to the 7D average. After the strong show in production over the weekend, we see it starting to settle lower.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 74.4 Bcf today,  -3.15 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +1.18 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 32.7 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 11.9 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 10.5 Bcf today. The lower levels are a result of Cove Point starting its maintenance over the weekend, and an outage at Sabine Pass taking feedgas levels below 4 Bcf/d.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.9 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.9 Bcf today.

For week ending Sept 30^th, the S/D storage is pointing to a +122 Bcf, while our flow model is at +121 Bcf injection. Last year we injected +114 Bcf during the same week.

This is the results of our flow model estimate:

Below is the storage activity at the facilities that report at the weekly level:

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