Daily Market Report – Oct 06, 2022

For week ending Sept 30^th, the S/D storage is pointing to a +122 Bcf, while our flow model is at +121 Bcf injection.  LY we injected +114 Bcf during the same week. For our final estimate, we are going to line ourselves up with the +121 Bcf from the flow model

This is the results of our flow estimate.

The current Bloomberg survey is +122 and Bloomberg whisper is currently at +124 (the whisper is the average of the 17 top analysts).

Here are the current ICE storage future settles as of yesterday.

Week 1 is +110 [no OI]

Week 2 is +108 [no OI]

Week 3 is +66 [no OI]

There current end of Summer 2022 (Nov 10^th) is 3535. [Last week was 3523]
There current end of Winter 2022/23 (Apr 13^th) is 1475. [no OI]

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  101.2 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.42 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.24 Bcf/d to the 7D average.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 73 Bcf today,  -1.62 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.63 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 32.7 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 10.8 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 10.5 Bcf today. The lower levels are a result of Cove Point starting its maintenance over the weekend, and an outage at Sabine Pass taking feedgas levels below 4 Bcf/d.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.4 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.7 Bcf today.

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