Daily Market Report – Oct 07, 2021

For today’s storage report our final projection is +117 Bcf  (S/D @ +117, Scrape @ +79).

The current Bloomberg survey is +108 and Bloomberg whisper is currently at +113 (the whisper is the average of the 17 top analysts).

Here are the current ICE storage future settles as of yesterday.

Week 1 is +113 [today’s report]

Week 2 is +96

Week 3 is +98

There current end of Summer 2021 (Nov 12^th) is 3625. [Last week was 3645]
There current end of Winter 2021/22 (Apr 8^th) is 1400. [Last week was 1435]

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  93 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +0.87 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.1 Bcf/d to the 7D average.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 69.6 Bcf today,  -0.71 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.71 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 33.1 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 8.1 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 10 Bcf today.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.6 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4.8 Bcf today.

The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +117 Bcf today.

Here are some weather analogues to keep in mind. These are the top October’s on record over the last 30 years. This October’s pattern is forecasted to be very similar to this. The Nov map shows what the resulting Nov looked like. In all 5 years, the La Nina pattern was similar to this year.

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