Daily Market Report – Oct 13, 2022

For week ending Oct 7th, the S/D storage is pointing to a +132 Bcf, while our flow model is at +130 Bcf injection.  Last year we injected +86 Bcf during the same week.
For our final estimate, we are going to line ourselves up with the +130 Bcf from the flow model

This is the results of our flow estimate.

The current Bloomberg survey is +126 and Bloomberg whisper is currently at +130 (the whisper is the average of the 17 top analysts).

Here are the current ICE storage future settles as of yesterday.

Week 1 is +108 [no OI]

Week 2 is +66 [no OI]

Week 3 is +45 [no OI]

There current end of Summer 2022 (Nov 10^th) is 3550. [Last week was 3535, OI = 83]
There current end of Winter 2022/23 (Apr 13^th) is 1475. [OI = 5]

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  100.1 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -1.3 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -2.1 Bcf/d to the 7D average. The drop today comes mainly out of the Rockies and Midcon region. The drop is likely related to pipeline maintenance.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 76.6 Bcf today,  +3.19 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +1.86 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 32.4 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 14.2 Bcf. Wind generation has jumped considerably over the past couple of days which will help keep the gas burns lower.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11 Bcf today. Sabine continues to flirt with the 4.5 Bcf/d level.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.4 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.5 Bcf today.

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