This morning the front month contract hovers near $6 with bearish weather changes over the weekend lower overall gas consumption needs as we head into winter. Since Friday’s 12z, the GFS Ensemble saw the biggest change with over 22 HDDs shed. The Euro Ensemble also showed warming, but not to the same extent. Here are the changes from Friday.
This latest pattern takes the forecast well below normal TDD levels past this week. This looks to be the consensus view to start the month of November.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 101.6 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +0.39 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.55 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 77.8 Bcf today, +5.35 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +4.6 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 30.6 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 19.5 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.4 Bcf today. LNG deliveries were stronger on the back of Sabine Pass starting to pick up feedgas volumes this weekend.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4.8 Bcf today. The drop in Canadian imports looks to be incorrect. Alliance pipeline nomination started posted 0s this weekend. There is no known maintenance.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +111 Bcf today.
This email, any information contained herein and any files transmitted with it (collectively, the Material) are the sole property of OTC Global Holdings LP and its affiliates (OTCGH); are confidential, may be legally privileged and are intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. Unauthorized disclosure, copying or distribution of the Material, is strictly prohibited and the recipient shall not redistribute the Material in any form to a third party. Please notify the sender immediately by email if you have received this email by mistake, delete this email from your system and destroy any hard copies. OTCGH waives no privilege or confidentiality due to any mistaken transmission of this email.
NatGas-Daily-Report-Oct-17-2022.pdf