Daily Market Report – Oct 18, 2022

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  100.6 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -1.04 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.24 Bcf/d to the 7D average. The big drop in production today comes from multiple regions. South Central showed the largest drop today with early nominations suggesting lower production out of the West Texas. The Northeast also saw lower production with TCO receipts falling. We saw an episode of TCO receipts fall last Friday, but it was only a one day event.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 86.3 Bcf today,  +6.28 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +12.16 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 32.5 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 25.3 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 12.1 Bcf today. Total deliveries continue to increase as cooler weather sets in and the utilization factor at the LNG terminals increases. The jump over 12 Bcf/d is a significant milestone considering both Cove Point (0.77 Bcf/d) and Freeport (2.0 Bcf/d) are unavailable.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.2 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 6.4 Bcf today.

The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +109 Bcf today.

For week ending Oct 14^th, the S/D storage is pointing to a +109 Bcf, while our flow model is at +112 Bcf injection.  Last year we injected +91 Bcf during the same week.

This is the results of our flow model estimate:

Below is the storage activity at the facilities that report at the weekly level:

Note: these levels are very similar to last week

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