Daily Market Report – Oct 19, 2022

The natgas front month continues to slide this morning with the recent loose nature of the market and upcoming bearish weather trends. This past weekend the GFS Ensemble saw a big shirt warmer, specifically down the East coast that. It today’s 00z run, that was somewhat reversed. The GFS Ensemble added 10+ HDDs across the 6-10 and 11-15 day period. The Euro Ensemble was unchanged.

Here is the latest medium term outlook from the CPC:

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  100.4 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +0.07 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.09 Bcf/d to the 7D average. Production past the weekend remains low across Texas and the Midcontinent.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 87.3 Bcf today,  -0.09 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +10.79 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 31.8 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 26.5 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 12 Bcf today. Sabine Pass feedgas levels have now exceed 5 Bcf/d as cooler temps are allowing the facility to operate at a higher rate.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.5 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 6.3 Bcf today. Relative to last week, the big change in Canadian import levels has been coming from an increase in flows on Northwest pipeline. We presume maintenance on TSouth is complete.

For week ending Oct 14^th, the S/D storage is pointing to a +109 Bcf, while our flow model is at +112 Bcf injection.  Last year we injected +91 Bcf during the same week.

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