Daily Market Report – Oct 20, 2022

For week ending Oct 14^th, the S/D storage is pointing to a +109 Bcf, while our flow model is at +112 Bcf injection.  Last year we injected +91 Bcf during the same week.
For our final estimate, we are going to line ourselves up with the +109 Bcf from the S/D model

This is the results of our flow estimate.

The current Bloomberg survey is +107 and Bloomberg whisper is currently at +107 (the whisper is the average of the 17 top analysts).

Here are the current ICE storage future settles as of yesterday.

Week 1 is +95 [no OI]

Week 2 is +45 [no OI]

Week 3 is +20 [no OI]

There current end of Summer 2022 (Nov 10^th) is 3560, OI = 83. [Last week was 3550, OI = 83]
There current end of Winter 2022/23 (Apr 13^th) is 1680, OI = 56 [Last week was 3550, OI = 5]

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  100.2 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.39 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.34 Bcf/d to the 7D average. The lower production this week looks to be concentrated in Permian (NM & TX side), and other TX shale regions.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 82.2 Bcf today,  -6.01 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +3.56 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 30.9 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 22.3 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.9 Bcf today. Freeport timeline still looks to be mid to late November despite two tankers expected to arrive this month. The Prism Brillance was expected to arrive on Oct 17, but has not docked yet. The tanker is currently sitting off the coast near Freeport. The Prism Diversity is expected to arrive on Oct 27. The image below was pulled at 8:15am EST.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.4 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.9 Bcf today.

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