This morning the front month contract continues to hover below $5. There was not much change in the weather outlook over the weekend. Both major models are well aligned for the balance of October. For the start of Nov, the first few days are still projected to be much warmer than normal. Here are the changes from Friday.
This latest pattern projections takes the forecast well below normal TDD levels. This looks to be the consensus view going forward, which is the reason the market has pushed below $5.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 101.2 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.12 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.36 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 72.9 Bcf today, +1.5 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -6.64 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 28.6 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 13.2 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.3 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.1 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.3 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +59 Bcf today.
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NatGas-Daily-Report-Oct-24-2022.pdf