This morning’s 00z run showed lower TDDs than yesterday’s 12z run which looks to have taken some pressure off the market. The GFS Ensemble lost a total of 6.6 TDDs, while the Euro Ensemble lost 7.6 TDDs. The big move in price yesterday was related to a weather change over the weekend which shows the start of Nov coming in much more close to normal that expected. As seen in the chart below, we are expecting national temps very close to the 10Y normal in the 6-10 and 11-15 period.
Other than temp, we see that wind is expected to be quite strong this week which should help keep gas burns quite low. Here is a wind outlook from Maxar which shows wind hitting a near-term record at the national level. Tomorrow we are expecting a peak wind level of 75 GWh, after which we still remain above normal levels.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 93 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.86 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.58 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 74.6 Bcf today, +2.97 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +4.54 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 29.4 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 18.5 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 10.7 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 7.1 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.3 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +91 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Oct-26-2021.pdf