Daily Market Report – Oct 29, 2021

The EIA reported a +87 Bcf injection for week ending Oct 22, which was inline with the consensus. This is now the 6 week in a row where the injection exceeded both LY and the 5Yr average injection levels. For the reported week, the storage injections were highly influenced by a drop in both wind and nuclear generation relative to the week prior. The futures were already sharply lower ahead of the EIA report yesterday and kept trending lower.

For the next report the balances should be much looser with returning production and stronger wind generation. Here is a look at wind vs normal specifically. As can been seen this last report was somewhat of a normal wind week, but this next upcoming report will once again be a record wind week. On Oct 26^th, wind once again hit record level of 70 GWh as a 24 hour average.

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  94.4 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +0.07 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.87 Bcf/d to the 7D average.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 71.3 Bcf today,  -2.45 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -2.24 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 27.1 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 17.4 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.8 Bcf today.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.9 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.2 Bcf today.

The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +61 Bcf today.

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