Our storage estimate for this week is pointing to +29 Bcf, which comes from our S/D model. Both the storage/weather model and pipeline flow model do point to a higher injections this week; hence we are expecting risk to a higher number. The current Bloomberg survey sits at +37 Bcf.
Here is our regional break down from the pipeline flow model.
Salt showed a large withdrawal last week of 6 Bcf. This week the pipe scrape shows Salt levels essentially flat week on week. Here is a look at Pine Prairie which shows a 1 Bcf drop for week ending Oct 23.
On the short-term weather side, we are continuously seeing warming revisions to the back end of the forecast. This is point to November temps painting a bearish picture for price.
Today’s Fundamentals:
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 85.4 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +1.07 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -2.41 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 0 Bcf today, -83.34 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -81.85 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 04 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 0 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 9.7 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.1 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.4 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Oct-29-2020.pdf