The December contract, on the first day in the prompt-month position, dropped early to a $3.15 before coming back higher to settle at $3.301, after a tighter than expected storage injection. The EIA reported a +29 Bcf storage injection for the week ending Oct 23, which was considerably lower than the 35-37 Bcf most analyst were expecting. This is the 2nd tight number in a row released by the EIA.
In overnight runs the 00z were mixed. The GFS Ensemble showed more cool weather on the back end, while the Euro Ensemble showed warming across the 15D stretch. Over all the 15D shows temps considerably warmer than the 10Y normal past the 1-5D period.
Today’s Fundamentals:
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 87.1 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +1.24 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.14 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 85.7 Bcf today, +3.9 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +1.75 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 29.44 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 27.6 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 9.8 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.4 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.4 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Oct-30-2020.pdf