L48 production has dropped significantly over the past couple of days, and of course led by Hurricane Delta which is projected to travel right through the major offshore production zones. Hurricane Delta, the 25th named storm of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season.
Today’s pipeline nomination data shows total Gulf region production, which includes all onshore production in TX and LA, to fall by 2.5 Bcf/d. We do expect that to be restated higher by approximately 0.5 Bcf/d in later noms though. BSEE reported 29% of US production to be impacted yesterday, but that number is likely to increase in today’s report. Offshore producer companies were securing offshore production platforms and evacuating workers on Tuesday, some for the sixth time this year. So far we have heard from all the majors – Shell, BP, Chevron, Equinor – have shut production and evacuated their platforms.
The storm is also projected to slam right into LA again, which could disrupt LNG at Cameron and Sabine, just they start to get going. Cameron nomination have been rising this week (0.65 Bcf/d today), but we could expect some temporary disruption for the balance of the week.
Today’s Fundamentals:
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 82.9 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -1.85 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -3.05 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 66.5 Bcf today, -0.86 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -3.99 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 33.44 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 8.6 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 8.5 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.4 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4.4 Bcf today.
Bloomberg IM: Het Shah
enelyst DM: @het.co
Tel: 917-975-2960
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Oct-7-2020.pdf