Daily Market Report – Sep 02, 2022

The EIA reported a +61 Bcf injection for the week ending Aug 26th, which fell right between our SnD and flow model. This past week we took our estimate was +60 Bcf.

This storage report takes the total level to 2640 Bcf, which is 228 Bcf less than last year at this time and 338 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,978 Bcf.

Although this week’s reported storage build was quite close to the the previous week, but the fundamental make up was quite different. Here are the few factors that led this past week’s storage number:

1. Total supply grew by +1.5 Bcf/d (+1.2 production out of the Rockies, Midcon and West TX, and 0.3 Bcf/d more specifically through Northern Borders)
2. Power burns jumped by 0.8 Bcf/d to offset the increase in supply with +2.1F more CDDs and extremely low wind led. The increase in CDDs was a result of the Midwest and East coast heating up as seen in the map below.

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  99.8 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.15 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.06 Bcf/d to the 7D average.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 77.8 Bcf today,  -3.29 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -2.44 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 38.6 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 8.1 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.4 Bcf today.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.7 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.7 Bcf today.

The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +61 Bcf today. (yes, this would be the 3^rd consecutive report at the same injection level)

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