Daily Market Report – Sep 06, 2022

Today’s weather runs came in bearish relative to Friday’s 12z. Both models lost close to 10 CDD over the next week, but still current forecast remain above the 10Y normal.

The chart below compares today’s 00z run to Friday’s 12z.

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  99.6 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -1.07 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.54 Bcf/d to the 7D average. Production and net Canadian imports remain on the strong side leading to a strong overall supply picture as we head towards winter.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 75.8 Bcf today,  -2.94 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -3.57 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 37.1 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 7.7 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 10.9 Bcf today. Over the weekend, total deliveries reached 11.9 with all the major terminals starting to ramp up. The drop back down today is a result of Corpus Christie falling by 0.6 Bcf/d to 1.6 Bcf/d. Maintenance began on one of its inlet pipes today.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.7 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 6.2 Bcf today.

The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +61 Bcf today. (yes, this would be the 3^rd consecutive report at the same injection level)

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