Daily Market Report – Sep 09, 2022

The EIA reported a +54 Bcf injection for the week ending Sept 2nd, which fell below our estimate of +61, but close to the market consensus. This storage report takes the total level to 2694 Bcf, which is 222 Bcf less than last year at this time and 349 Bcf below the five-year average of 3,043 Bcf.

Here are the few factors that changed WoW that led to the slightly lower storage injection relative to the previous week:

1. Total supply grew by +1.2 Bcf/d (+1.1 production out of the Midcon and TX, and net 0.3 Bcf/d more from WestCan)
2. Power burns were off significantly as wind generation jumped from 23.6 aGWh in week ending Aug 26 to 36 aGWh in week ending Sept 2. This translates to PB dropping by 2+ Bcf/d assuming the additional wind pushed out a 7.8HR gas gen.
3. The weather was overall warmer for the week, so overall power demand was higher by 2.8%. This resulted in PB being higher just due to higher load.

Overall, this storage number was loose vs LY. Here is a quick table comparing this past week to the same week in 2021. As can be seen, the massive jump in production slight outpaced the rise in demand.

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  99.2 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.69 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.33 Bcf/d to the 7D average.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 76 Bcf today,  -2.86 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.5 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 38.2 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 7.8 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 10.9 Bcf today.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.5 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.6 Bcf today.

The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +82 Bcf today.

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