Today’s weather runs came in neutral overall relative to Friday’s 12z with a loss in CDDs in the first week and small rise in the second week. With the latest change, the GFS Ensemble continues to trend slightly warmer than the Euro Ensemble.
The chart below compares today’s 00z run to Friday’s 12z.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 100.4 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.54 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.04 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 75.1 Bcf today, -0.68 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -2.53 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 37 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 7.9 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.6 Bcf today. The strong deliveries are a result of volumes resuming at Corpus Christie after completion of maintenance on one the terminals feeder pipes and Calcasieu Pass steadily holding 1.6+ in deliveries. Freeport also continues to receive very small nomination each morning that are later revised to 0.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.3 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.5 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +81 Bcf today.
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NatGas-Daily-Report-Sept-12-2022.pdf