Daily Market Report – Sep 16, 2022

The EIA reported a +77 Bcf injection for the week ending Sept 9^th, which came in slightly higher than our estimate of +74. This storage report takes the total level to 2994 Bcf, which is 223 Bcf less than last year at this time and 354 Bcf below the five-year average of 3,125 Bcf.

Here are the few factors that changed WoW that led to the slightly higher storage injection relative to the previous week:

1. Total supply was higher by +0.8 Bcf/d (Northeast production finally jumped, while net imports from Canada were relatively flat)
2. The storage week covered the labor day long weekend; hence we estimate 6 Bcf of less demand for the holiday Monday relative to a typical Monday.
3. Power burns were off significantly even with wind generation not showing up for much of the reporting week. The main driver was the dropping temps which reduced overall power demand by 4.8% week-on-week.

Here is a quick table comparing this past week to the same week in 2021.

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  99.9 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.81 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.52 Bcf/d to the 7D average.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 74 Bcf today,  +0.12 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.45 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 35.5 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 8 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.7 Bcf today.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.9 Bcf today.

The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +100 Bcf today. (could be our 2^nd triple digit build of the year. The other one was week ending June 3^rd)

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