This mornings weather runs vs Friday’s 12z were quite bearish. The GFS Ensemble saw 11+ CDDs disappear, while the Euro Ensemble saw 8+ CDDs disappear. With the lower temps comes less power demand, which good timing for the maintenance season starting for Nuke, Coal and Gas gen. Also bearish this weekend was the rise in Wind gen. We saw wind rise above 50 aGWh for the first time since late-August lead to lower power burns. August is typically the lowest wind month, after which we see a rise in wind utilization up until January.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 99.9 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.49 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.38 Bcf/d to the 7D average. Production continues to remain at or above 100 Bcf/d, which seems correct with the loose storage numbers we have been observing.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 75.5 Bcf today, +1.11 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +1.79 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 35.6 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 7.8 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.5 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 6.1 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +100 Bcf today.
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NatGas-Daily-Report-Sept-19-2022.pdf