Daily Market Report – Sep 23, 2022

The EIA reported a +103 Bcf injection for the week ending Sept 16th, which came in much higher than our estimate of +95. This storage report takes the total level to 2874 Bcf, which is 197 Bcf less than last year at this time and 332 Bcf below the five-year average of 3,206 Bcf.

Here are the few factors that changed WoW that led to the triple-digit storage injection:

1. Total supply remained strong at over 100 Bcf/d, but this wasn’t the moving factor as it was in line with the previous week.
2. The main factor that pushed more gas into storage was the lower consumption week-on-week with the cooler temps. The L48 population wt. CDDs dropped by 4.6 F leading to most of the country dropping to normal or below normal temps. As can be seen in the weather maps below, the shift in temps was quite drastic.
3. Power burns were off significantly with wind generation mean-reverting back to normal levels.  wind generation averaged 37.4 GWh which is 10.1 GWh higher than the previous week. This rising wind output lowered 1.8 Bcf/d or 12 Bcf/week of power burns.

Here is a quick table comparing this past week to the same week in 2021.

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  99.1 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -1.08 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.02 Bcf/d to the 7D average.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 76.6 Bcf today,  -1.25 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.94 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 34.1 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 11.7 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.3 Bcf today.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.5 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 6.3 Bcf today.

The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +101 Bcf today. (We are looking at a string of low triple-digit burns going forward)

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