Daily Market Report – Sep 27, 2022

Hurricane Ian’s is expected to make landfall early on Thursday near Tampa as a Cat 3 storm, resulting in catastrophic impacts. Meanwhile, most of Florida will experience heavy rain and 40+ mph wind gusts. There are some offshore production facilities that have shut-in for precautionary reasons only, but the real impact will be natgas demand destruction with the strong winds and strong storm surge potentially impacting power infrastructure.

This is the latest note from NOAA:

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  99.8 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -1.24 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.72 Bcf/d to the 7D average.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 73.4 Bcf today,  +0.19 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.4 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 32.5 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 11.3 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 12.2 Bcf today. With the lower temps, we are seeing all facilities starting to increase their liquefaction capability. Sabine Pass is nearing 5 Bcf/d of feedgas.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.8 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 6.4 Bcf today.

For week ending Sept 23^rd, the S/D storage is pointing to a +102 Bcf, while our flow model is at +101 Bcf injection.  LY we injected +89 Bcf during the same week.

This is the results of our flow model estimate:

Below is the storage activity at the facilities that report at the weekly level:

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