Daily Market Report – Sep 28, 2022

Hurricane Ian has strengthened to a Cat 4 storm, and looks like it will be making landfall near its peak intensity. Landfall is expected to occur late in the day between Sarasota and Fort Myers. Here are the latest notes from NOAA (7am EST run)

Here is a view of the energy infrastructure in path:

This will largely be a storm that causes natgas demand destruction, but there is some production that has been shut-in. Here is the report from BSEE yesterday, that indicated approximately 0.184 Bcf/d of offshore gas production being offline.

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  100.8 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.03 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.12 Bcf/d to the 7D average.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 74.1 Bcf today,  -0.16 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +1.15 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 32.1 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 12.6 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 12.1 Bcf today.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.8 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 6.3 Bcf today.

For week ending Sept 23^rd, the S/D storage is pointing to a +102 Bcf, while our flow model is at +101 Bcf injection.  LY we injected +89 Bcf during the same week. Note: We have built in roughly 12 Bcf of demand destruction into our Week #2 estimates. This take the estimate to +124 Bcf

This is the results of our flow model estimate:

Below is the storage activity at the facilities that report at the weekly level:

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