Daily Market Report – Sept 08, 2022

For week ending Sept 2nd, the S/D storage and flow model are in the same ballpark of +61 Bcf injection. LY we injected +48 Bcf during the same week.

This is the results of our flow estimate.

The current Bloomberg survey is +55 and Bloomberg whisper is currently at +55 (the whisper is the average of the 17 top analysts).

Here are the current ICE storage future settles as of yesterday.

Week 1 is +82 [today’s report w/ no OI] {this is a really odd number for the next 3 weeks}

Week 2 is +81

Week 3 is +77

There current end of Summer 2022 (Nov 10^th) is 3490. [Last week was 3475]
There current end of Winter 2022/23 (Apr 13^th) is 1475. [no OI]

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  98.9 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -1.43 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.73 Bcf/d to the 7D average. Yesterday early morning modelled levels were in a similar range, which were then revised by 1.0-1.5 Bcf/d higher.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 76.3 Bcf today,  -2.76 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.2 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 39 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 8 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 10.7 Bcf today. The drop in flow today comes with Corpus Christie reducing flows by 0.4 Bcf with ongoing maintenance on one of its feeder pipes. Maintenance is expected to last until Sept 12^th.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.6 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.4 Bcf today.

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