Yesterday, the EIA reported a +52 Bcf storage injection for week ending Sept 3rd. This report was expected to a wild one with Hurricane Ida disrupting so many fundamental factors. The week-on-week change in production was not to hard to track with good visibility in the flow data, and the BSEE.gov reporting daily oil/gas shut-ins. The more difficult piece was understanding Ida’s impact on Gulf Coast industrial, and res/comm as Ida ripped up from New Orleans to New York City. The overall report was bearish relative to expectation but the market only blinked lower for a split second before rising higher above $5.
There is still a lot of uncertainty on when production will be restored, but on power is quickly being restored to most of Louisiana. 188k electric customers remain without power now with over 1.1 million customers have been restored so far. The 3 southern most parishes remain over 90% out. These are where are the key natgas processing facilities are. The BSEE reported 1.722 Bcf/d of gas still shut-in as of yesterday.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 89.6 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.52 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.5 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 68.6 Bcf today, -0.86 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.89 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 33.6 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 7.2 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.2 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.9 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +78 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Sep-10-2021.pdf