Daily Market Report – Sept 15, 2022

For week ending Sept 9^th, the S/D storage is pointing to a +82 Bcf, while our flow model is at +74 Bcf injection.  LY we injected +78 Bcf during the same week. For our final estimate, we are going to line ourselves up with the +74 Bcf from the flow model

This is the results of our flow estimate.

The current Bloomberg survey is +72 and Bloomberg whisper is currently at +71 (the whisper is the average of the 17 top analysts).

Here are the current ICE storage future settles as of yesterday.

Week 1 is +81 [no OI]

Week 2 is +77 [no OI]

Week 3 is +89

There current end of Summer 2022 (Nov 10^th) is 3475. [Last week was 3490]
There current end of Winter 2022/23 (Apr 13^th) is 1475. [no OI]

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  100 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.21 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.35 Bcf/d to the 7D average.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 71.8 Bcf today,  -0.95 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -2.54 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 35.8 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 7.9 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.8 Bcf today. Sabine continues to take 4.6+ in deliveries which is keeping overall LNG feedgas levels strong. The base level should continue to increase and temps cool.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.5 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.6 Bcf today.

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