Daily Market Report – Sept 16, 2021

For today’s storage report our final projection is +80 Bcf  (S/D @ +80, Scrape @ +83).

The current Bloomberg survey is +76 and Bloomberg whisper is currently at +80 (the whisper is the average of the 17 top analysts).

Here are the current ICE storage future settles as of yesterday.

Week Ending Sep 10  is +76

Week Ending Sep 17 is +76

Week Ending Sep 24  is +81

There current end of Summer 2021 (Nov 12^th) is 3525. [Last week was 3505]
There current end of Winter 2021/22 (Apr 8^th) is 1422. [Last week was 1445]

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  90.7 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.57 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.11 Bcf/d to the 7D average. BSEE shows only 0.878 Bcf/d of GoM now shut-in. The climb has been slow, but we are now only 40% shut-in from virtually 100% gone during Hurricane Ida.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 70.2 Bcf today,  -1.74 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.01 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 34.6 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 7.3 Bcf. Gulf coast industrial usage is expected to be lower this week after Hurricane Nicholas ripped through the energy corridor in Texas. Unfortunately we do not have much visibility in this area due to the only having access to interstate pipeline data.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 9.1 Bcf today. Freeport feedgas volumes remain at almost 0 after Hurricane Nicholas knocked out power to all three trains. Corpus Christie also had lower feedgas levels but this looks more related to short-term maintenance. In other LNG news from the FERC: Sabine Pass LNG has submitted a request to introduce feed gas into Train 6 on or before September 21, 2021.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.6 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4.6 Bcf today.

The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +80 Bcf today.

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