Daily Market Report – Sept 22, 2022

For week ending Sept 16th, the S/D storage is pointing to a +95 Bcf, while our flow model is at +93 Bcf injection.  LY we injected +77 Bcf during the same week. For our final estimate, we are going to line ourselves up with the +95 Bcf from the SnD model

This is the results of our flow estimate.

The current Bloomberg survey is +95 and Bloomberg whisper is currently at +99 (the whisper is the average of the 17 top analysts).

Here are the current ICE storage future settles as of yesterday.

Week 1 is +88 [no OI]

Week 2 is +89 [no OI]

Week 3 is +82

There current end of Summer 2022 (Nov 10^th) is 3475. [Last week was 3475]
There current end of Winter 2022/23 (Apr 13^th) is 1475. [no OI]

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  99 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.61 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.14 Bcf/d to the 7D average. One of the factor’s leading to the lower production is the TETCO forced majeure which has pushed App basin production to 33 Bcf/d. TETCO’s deliveries to NEXUS dropped to 0 as a result, and its anticipated the outage to last until the end of the month.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 74.7 Bcf today,  -2.75 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.1 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 36.1 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 8.9 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.4 Bcf today.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.6 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 6.2 Bcf today.

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