Yesterday the EIA reported a +76 Bcf storage injection for week ending Sept 17th. The bearish report once again came in a few Bcf higher than expectations, but the market shook it off and price started move higher for the balance of the day and into today. As with last week’s report, this report indicated loosening condition from the last few weeks of August. We estimate this report being 0.4 Bcf/d tight versus the average 3Yr wx-adjusted injection.
Today’s price looks to be moving with other global price benchmarks.
The weather picture of the rest of Sept and long-range forecast for Oct are also painting a bearish scenario with lower gas demand. Here is a look at the NOAA 8-14 day outlook which shows above normal temps across much of the L48
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 91.3 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -1.02 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.4 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 66.9 Bcf today, -2.77 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -2 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 29.1 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 8.7 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 10.5 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.7 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.6 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +90 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Sep-24-2021.pdf