Natgas price opened the week much higher yesterday with no real fundamentals backing it. The temps changes over the weekend were neutral to bearish from the two major models. In comparison to Friday’s 12Z, the Euro Ensemble gained 2.1 and the GFS Ensemble lost 3.5F. Both models are showing temps slight below the 10Y normal to close out Sept and start Oct.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 91.6 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -1.58 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.12 Bcf/d to the 7D average. We expect production to be restated to ~93 Bcf/d in the evening cycle. GoM production continued to come back this week, and overall production reached 93 Bcf/d over the weekend. This level is similar to pre-Ida levels.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 65.5 Bcf today, +0.64 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -2.24 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 29.2 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 7.3 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 10.6 Bcf today. Cameron resumed normal operations, and Sabine hit 4 Bcf/d.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.4 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.8 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +89 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Sep-27-2021.pdf