Daily Market Report – Sept 29, 2022

Hurricane Ian was downgraded to Tropical Storm Ian on Thursday morning but was still dumping record amounts of rain across Central Florida Peninsula thru Friday morning. According to PowerOutage.us there are currently 2.6M without power out of the 11M tracked, so that is roughly 24% of the population. The damage to power infrastructure is still being assessed, but this hurricane will likely cause lower natgas demand over the coming days/weeks.

As Florida deals with lower demand, Ian’s impact will be felt across the East through the 1st few days of October. The system is expected to draw colder air down from the north resulting in an increased demand for gas-weighted heating degree days. So there will likely be some offset in gas usage from other parts of the country.

For week ending Sept 23^rd, the S/D storage is pointing to a +103 Bcf, while our flow model is at +101 Bcf injection.  LY we injected +86 Bcf during the same week. For our final estimate, we are going to line ourselves up with the +101 Bcf from the flow model

This is the results of our flow estimate.

The current Bloomberg survey is +96 and Bloomberg whisper is currently at +101 (the whisper is the average of the 17 top analysts).

Here are the current ICE storage future settles as of yesterday.

Week 1 is +104 [no OI]

Week 2 is +110 [no OI]

Week 3 is +108

There current end of Summer 2022 (Nov 10^th) is 3523. [Last week was 3475]
There current end of Winter 2022/23 (Apr 13^th) is 1475. [no OI]

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  100.7 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.6 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.19 Bcf/d to the 7D average.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 72.3 Bcf today,  -2.04 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.15 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 31.2 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 12.2 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 12.2 Bcf today.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.4 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 6.2 Bcf today.

This email, any information contained herein and any files transmitted with it (collectively, the Material) are the sole property of OTC Global Holdings LP and its affiliates (OTCGH); are confidential, may be legally privileged and are intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. Unauthorized disclosure, copying or distribution of the Material, is strictly prohibited and the recipient shall not redistribute the Material in any form to a third party. Please notify the sender immediately by email if you have received this email by mistake, delete this email from your system and destroy any hard copies. OTCGH waives no privilege or confidentiality due to any mistaken transmission of this email.