The EIA released the monthly short term energy outlook (STEO) yesterday. The biggest changing piece was their production outlook compared to last month’s report. Th expectation is for production to decreased until February 2021, after which their will be a modest increase through the end of 2021. U.S. dry natgas production forecast was revised higher by +2.53 Bcf/d (on average) to 86.78 Bcf/d over the next 16 months (Sept. 2020 – Dec. 2021).
Today’s Fundamentals:
Today we are expecting a 71 Bcf injection which would take total storage to 3526 Bcf. With that injection level the storage surplus would be +529 vs LY and +410 vs. 5Yr.
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 87.5 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.61 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.44 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 73.4 Bcf today, -1.12 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +3.21 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 364 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 10.2 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 6.8 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.4 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4.4 Bcf today.
Bloomberg IM: Het Shah
enelyst DM: @het.co
Tel: 917-975-2960
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Sept-10-2020.pdf