Natural gas prices are up this morning with tropics looking quite active this morning. The biggest threat is the slow moving TS Sally which is expected to become a cat 1 hurricane by later today. Offshore operators are shutting facilities in the US Gulf of Mexico as tropical storm Sally appeared headed for landfall on the Louisiana-Mississippi coast.
Chevron started shut-in procedures and evacuated all personnel from its Blind Faith and Petronius platforms over the weekend. BP said it has secured offshore facilities and evacuated non-essential personnel from the Nakika and Thunderhorse platforms. Shell is securing drilling operations for some rigs in preparation for potentially severe weather but there are no impacts to Gulf of Mexico production and all personnel remain aboard Shell assets, the company said today.
Onshore, we read that Phillips 66 began shutting its 255,600 bpd Alliance refinery in LA.
The LNG facilities are more west of where the storm is headed, and therefore we have seen no impact to operations of the running facilities. Over the weekend the LNG facilities received ~7.4 Bcf/d of feed gas. Cameron is still not operational.
Today’s Fundamentals:
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 86.6 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.64 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.43 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 68.4 Bcf today, +1.94 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -2.59 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 34.14 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 7.7 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 7.4 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.2 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 3.9 Bcf today.
Bloomberg IM: Het Shah
enelyst DM: @het.co
Tel: 917-975-2960
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