According to the BSEE, Sally had shut in around 0.69 Bcf/d of gas in yesterday’s report. The overall impact is expecte to be about 1 Bcf/d today, and should not be as high as Hurricane Laura much it is passing on the East side of all the offshore facilities.
Here is the latest update from NHC.
There has been little change overall in Sally’s convective structure in both satellite and Doppler radar data. An eye has tried to close off several times this morning, but after less than 30 minutes the southern eyewall has eroded. Until just recently, the central pressure had been steady for the past several hours at 986 mb. However, the most recent Air Force Reserve reconnaissance pass through Sally’s center reported a dropsonde pressure of 984 mb and 13 kt winds, which equals a pressure of 983 mb. Maximum 700-mb flight-level winds observed have only been 63 kt and peak SFMR winds have been 58 kt. Also, reports from nearby oil rigs have dropped off significantly since yesterday are now in the 40-50 kt range. Based on these data, the initial intensity has been lowered to 75 kt.
It is still too early to determine where Sally’s center will move onshore given the uncertainty in the timing and location of Sally’s northward turn near the central Gulf Coast. Users should not focus on the details of the official forecast track, since NHC’s average forecast error at 36 hours is around 60 miles, and dangerous storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend well away from the center.
Today’s Fundamentals:
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 85.4 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -1.73 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -2.46 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 68.7 Bcf today, +0.04 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.34 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 344 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 8.4 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 7.2 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.4 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 3.6 Bcf today.
Bloomberg IM: Het Shah
enelyst DM: @het.co
Tel: 917-975-2960
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Sept-15-2020.pdf