For week ending September 25th, we are estimating a storage build of 83 Bcf. The range for this week was quite wide entering the weekend especially with the two past reports showing wide variation from analyst estimates. This storage build would take total storage levels to 3763 Bcf, or +478 vs. LY and +412 vs 5Yr average.
Our view of individual facility scrapes shows many of the facility getting near full. For week ending Sept 25, here are the weekly injections along with their current storage levels. As can be seen, most facilities are above 90% of peak recorded inventories already. There are two issues to note with that: 1) the obvious that there is limited space with 6-7 week’s of more injections left. 2) The majority of these facilities are not high deliverable facilities (typically reservoirs or aquifers) – hence the daily deliverability into storage is significantly reduced when you get to these high storage levels.
|
Storage Week Ending Sep 25, 2020 |
|
|
||
|
|
vs. Last Week |
vs. Last Year |
Current Storage Level |
% of Peak Recorded |
|
DTI |
+7 |
+5 |
270 |
91% |
|
Hardy |
0 |
+0.8 |
13.2 |
99% |
|
Columbia Gas |
+5.7 |
+3.9 |
232.2 |
91% |
|
Southern Star |
+0.1 |
+1.5 |
42.3 |
93% |
|
Storage Week Ending Sep 25, 2020 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
vs. Last Week |
vs. Last Year |
Current Storage Level |
% of Peak Recorded |
|
ANRPL STORAGE FACILITIES |
+3.7 |
+27.4 |
187 |
93% |
|
BLUE LAKE |
+1.1 |
+8.3 |
43 |
93% |
|
BLUEWATER STORAGE |
+0.4 |
+1.4 |
32 |
101% |
|
Golden Triangle Storage |
+0.1 |
+5.5 |
11 |
79% |
|
Honeoye Storage |
0 |
+0.1 |
2 |
75% |
|
MIST INVENTORY |
-15.6 |
-13.5 |
0 |
0% |
|
NFGSC – Top Gas Inventory |
+1.4 |
+2.5 |
65 |
95% |
|
TOTAL JP INVENTORY |
+0.6 |
-0.3 |
24 |
98% |
|
PG&E Total Gas in Storage |
+0.6 |
-1.3 |
79 |
79% |
|
PINE PRAIRIE STORAGE |
+1.5 |
+15.1 |
69 |
122% |
|
Clay Basin Storage Facility |
+0.7 |
+5.7 |
46 |
93% |
|
Ending Storage Balance |
+1 |
+6 |
79 |
63% |
|
CAVERNS |
+0.9 |
+9.7 |
26 |
83% |
|
Ryckman Creek Gas Storage |
+0.3 |
+9.8 |
25 |
98% |
|
EMINENCE EESS & ES |
+0.2 |
-0.3 |
5 |
54% |
|
WASHINGTON STORAGE |
+0.8 |
+5.4 |
66 |
94% |
|
WBI-AGGREGATE STORAGE |
+1.4 |
+5.9 |
32 |
82% |
Today’s Fundamentals:
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 86.2 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.91 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.41 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 69.1 Bcf today, -1.57 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +3.06 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 31.44 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 11 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 6.8 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.6 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 3.6 Bcf today.
Bloomberg IM: Het Shah
enelyst DM: @het.co
Tel: 917-975-2960
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Sept-30-2020.pdf