For the storage report for week ending Sept 4, our estimates are pointing to a 71 Bcf injection. The S/D balances is looser week -on-week, with both power gen and LNG deliveries being the main culprits. LNG during the storage week decreased by 0.8 Bcf/d to average 3.0 Bcf/d with Sabine and Cameron out, and power demand dropped by 4.4 Bcf/d with cooler temps.
Data from the DTI, TCO (Columbia Gas) and SSE (Southern Star) continue to show injection. DTI is 84% full, TCO is 83% full, and SSE is 89% full. As seen in the charts below, all storage facilities, with the exception of Hardy, are now within the 5Yr range.
Today’s Fundamentals:
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 86.7 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -1.59 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.01 Bcf/d to the 7D average. We expect the production to rebound to yesterday’s levels in intraday nomination cycles.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 73.3 Bcf today, -0.01 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +2.6 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 35.34 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 9.9 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 6.7 Bcf today. Sabine Pass has been ramping up deliveries with Cameron still unavailable today. This is the highest level of US LNG deliveries we have seen since May 11th.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.5 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 3.6 Bcf today.
Bloomberg IM: Het Shah
enelyst DM: @het.co
Tel: 917-975-2960
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Sept-9-2020.pdf