PDF attached
Calls:
Corn 1-5c higher
Wheat 3-7c higher
Soybeans 2-5c higher
Soybean meal $1.50-3.00 higher
Soybean oil 0.50 to 1.50 higher (JD provided that and agree)
Ukraine/Russia situation is not getting any better after heavy shelling occurred over the weekend. Egypt’s GASC seeks vegetable oils on Tuesday for January 10-31 shipment via 180-day letters of credit. They are also in for local vegetable oils. Cargo surveyor ITS reported November 1-20 palm oil shipments from Malaysia at 997,216 tons, up from 909,817 tons previous period month earlier, or up 9.6% increase. Both Reuters and Bloomberg are reporting that Argentina is closer to roll out a second “soybean dollar” sometime in December. Range was estimated between 215-225 pesos per USD. That would be up from 200 back in September when they last rolled it out. Argentine producers sold 72.2% of the 44 million tons soybean production for the 2021-22 crop (USDA 43.9MMT), down slightly from 74.2% during the same period year ago. 49.5 million tons is what USDA has penciled in for 2022-23, down from 51 million tons estimated back in September. We are hearing Argentina crush rates are not as good as they were when they rolled out the September bump, so more soybeans this round could end up exported rather than be crushed. Either way, look for March CBOT soybean oil and meal product premiums to come under pressure versus other contract months as Argentina could boost exportable product supply by as early as January 1.
CFTC Commitment of Traders
The funds sold a large amount of corn and soybean meal for the week ending Tuesday November 15. For corn, the traditional funds sold 52,000 futures and options (combined) contracts. For soybean meal they sold 17,000. The trade missed the net long position for traditional futures only funds position by a large 39,700 contracts. They were also well off on their net long position for soybeans by 19,000 contracts and soybean meal by 12,500 9all less long than expected). We could see some technical buying in light of the CFTC positions as some longs could bottom pick.
Reuters Table
SUPPLEMENTAL Non-Comm Indexes Comm
Net Chg Net Chg Net Chg
Corn 103,617 -49,624 361,352 780 -427,394 37,630
Soybeans 44,261 -11,502 125,467 5,315 -140,762 7,149
Soyoil 68,939 4,726 108,636 1,868 -192,536 -9,242
CBOT wheat -60,490 -2,009 107,057 -1,979 -40,428 4,677
KCBT wheat 3,665 -2,584 46,787 454 -49,972 1,811
FUTURES + OPTS Managed Swaps Producer
Net Chg Net Chg Net Chg
Corn 176,831 -60,831 238,170 4,727 -424,628 36,084
Soybeans 92,965 -10,943 82,069 5,306 -134,665 7,765
Soymeal 75,710 -19,710 85,396 3,655 -204,740 20,297
Soyoil 110,371 5,160 82,520 -1,487 -207,549 -7,749
CBOT wheat -46,780 -3,876 66,665 1,719 -33,596 3,847
KCBT wheat 21,281 -3,152 32,505 1,507 -50,065 556
MGEX wheat 158 -2,897 1,622 -288 -1,680 3,329
———- ———- ———- ———- ———- ———-
Total wheat -25,341 -9,925 100,792 2,938 -85,341 7,732
Live cattle 50,160 -12,021 53,326 253 -116,440 10,684
Feeder cattle -6,606 -613 3,235 -69 4,891 152
Lean hogs 55,800 1,287 46,280 487 -84,502 -1,676
Other NonReport Open
Net Chg Net Chg Interest Chg
Corn 47,202 8,805 -37,575 11,214 1,851,206 -68,872
Soybeans -11,404 -1,167 -28,966 -961 711,647 8,162
Soymeal 21,875 2,672 21,758 -6,915 440,919 -12,548
Soyoil -302 1,427 14,960 2,648 536,578 18,217
CBOT wheat 19,849 -998 -6,139 -690 448,452 4,749
KCBT wheat -3,241 770 -480 318 173,978 1,264
MGEX wheat 1,623 -418 -1,723 274 48,903 -3,460
———- ———- ———- ———- ———- ———-
Total wheat 18,231 -646 -8,342 -98 671,333 2,553
Live cattle 15,871 -657 -2,918 1,739 348,144 -3,691
Feeder cattle -2,457 -1,217 936 1,746 61,534 2,852
Lean hogs -6,093 -54 -11,485 -43 259,198 6,795
Terry Reilly
Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds
Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.
Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181
W: 312.604.1366
ICE IM: treilly1
Skype: fi.treilly
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CommitFI112022.pdf