Calls: Higher based on crop progress
Soybeans 20-30 higher
Meal $4-$7 higher
SBO 50-100 points higher
Corn 7-13 higher
Wheat 7-15 higher
EPA headlines not expected to trump USDA CP
Reuters covering US EPA mandates:
- US EPA PLANS TO FINALIZE 2023 BIOFUEL BLENDING VOLUMES AT 20.94 BLN GALLONS, VERSUS 20.82 BLN GALLONS IN PROPOSED RULE – SOURCES
- US EPA PLANS TO FINALIZE 2024 BIOFUEL BLENDING VOLUMES AT 21.54 BLN GALLONS, VERSUS 21.87 BLN GALLONS IN PROPOSED RULE – SOURCES
- US EPA PLANS TO FINALIZE 2025 BIOFUEL BLENDING VOLUMES AT 22.33 BLN GALLONS, VERSUS 22.68 BLN GALLONS IN PROPOSED RULE – SOURCES
- U.S. EPA PLANS TO FINALIZE ETHANOL BLENDING MANDATE AT 15.25 BILLION GALLONS FOR 2023 AND 15 BILLION GALLONS FOR 2024 AND 2025 – SOURCES
- US EPA TO SET ADVANCED BIOFUEL BLENDING MANDATE AT 5.94 BILLION GALLONS IN 2023, UP FROM A PROPOSED 5.82 BILLION – SOURCES
- US EPA TO SET BIOMASS-BASED DIESEL MANDATE AT 2.82 BILLION GALLONS IN 2023, UNCHANGED FROM PROPOSAL – SOURCES
- US EPA TO SET BIOMASS-BASED DIESEL MANDATE AT 3.04 BILLION GALLONS IN 2024, UP FROM PROPOSED 2.89 BILLION GALLONS – SOURCES
- US EPA TO SET CELLULOSIC BIOFUEL MANDATE AT 840 MILLION GALLONS IN 2023, UP FROM A PROPOSED 720 MILLION GALLONS – SOURCES
- US EPA TO SET BIOMASS-BASED DIESEL MANDATE AT 3.35 BLN GALLONS IN 2025, UP FROM PROPOSED 2.95 BLN GALLONS – SOURCES
Slight increase in overall mandates can be read both ways. We will make no changes to our US balance sheets for corn and soybean oil. Perhaps some that bought into soybean oil last week looking for a higher advanced mandate may claw back on positions.
US corn yields, what we heard, are around 177 to 179 and 50.5-51.5 for soybeans. Odd trade today as profit taking offset bull traders looking at US weather forecasts, which called for mix events for the US Midwest over the next week.
US WINTER WHEAT – 38 PCT CONDITION GOOD/EXCELLENT VS 38 PCT WK AGO (30 PCT YR AGO) -USDA
US SPRING WHEAT – 51 PCT CONDITION GOOD/EXCELLENT VS 60 PCT WK AGO (59 PCT YR AGO) -USDA
US RICE – 70 PCT CONDITION GOOD/EXCELLENT VS 67 PCT WK AGO (72 PCT YR AGO) -USDA
US CORN – 55 PCT CONDITION GOOD/EXCELLENT VS 61 PCT WK AGO (70 PCT YR AGO) -USDA
US COTTON – 47 PCT CONDITION GOOD/EXCELLENT VS 49 PCT WK AGO (40 PCT YR AGO) -USDA
US SOYBEAN – 54 PCT CONDITION GOOD/EXCELLENT VS 59 PCT WK AGO (68 PCT YR AGO) -USDA
US COTTON – 89 PCT PLANTED VS 81 PCT WK AGO (94 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA
US RICE – 99 PCT EMERGED VS 94 PCT WK AGO (97 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA
US SOYBEANS – 92 PCT EMERGED VS 86 PCT WK AGO (81 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA
US CORN – 96 PCT EMERGED VS 93 PCT WK AGO (94 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA
US SPRING WHEAT – 98 PCT EMERGED VS 90 PCT WK AGO (95 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA
US WINTER WHEAT – 94 PCT HEADED VS 89 PCT WK AGO (93 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA
US SPRING WHEAT – 10 PCT HEADED (2 PCT YR) (10 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA
US RICE – 6 PCT HEADED (5 PCT YR) (4 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA
US WINTER WHEAT – 15 PCT HARVESTED VS 8 PCT WK AGO (20 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA
US COTTON – 19 PCT SQUARING VS 11 PCT WK AGO (21 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA
US COTTON – 3 PCT SETTING BOLLS (5 PCT YR) (4 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA
US corn yields, what we heard, are around 177 to 179 and 50.5-51.5 for soybeans. Odd trade today as profit taking offset bull traders looking at US weather forecasts, which called for mixed rain events for the US Midwest over the next week.
Fund estimates as of June 20 (net in 000)
| Terry Reilly Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds |
| Futures International One Lincoln Center 18W140 Butterfield Rd. Suite 1450 Oakbrook terrace, Il. 60181 |
| Work: 312.604.1366 ICE IM: treilly1 Skype IM: fi.treilly |
| treilly@futures-int.com
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