FI Evening Grain Comments 01/24/22

PDF Attached

 

Private
exporters reported the following activity:

• 150,000
  metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2021/2022 marketing year
• 132,000
  metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China.  Of the total, 66,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2021/2022 marketing year and 66,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2022/2023 marketing year

 

Wather

7-day
US precipitation

 

 

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR JANUARY 24, 2022

• Topsoil
  conditions in Argentina are now saturated with moisture except in the far northeast where hot and dry conditions have prevailed and further harmed minor grain, oilseed and cotton crops.
  
• Subsoil
  moisture is still rated low, but it will be increasing this week as the topsoil moisture percolates downward in the soil.
  
• Additional
  showers are expected in Argentina early this week and then about seven days of drying and warming will occur followed by additional precipitation in the first weekend of February.
  
• Southwestern
  Brazil and Paraguay have been baking in a hot and dry weather pattern of lately and that pattern should break down late this week as a brief period of rain evolves; however, follow up rain will be desperately needed and it will not likely occur until late
  in the first week of February.
• A
  good mix of rain and sunshine should occur in the remainder of Brazil for the next couple of weeks.
  
• In
  the U.S., hard red winter wheat areas will get a little snow in the west during mid-week this week, but moisture totals will be limited.
  
• Other
  areas in the Plains, Midwest, Delta and southeastern states will experience restricted precipitation pattern this week and for a little while next week.
  
• A
  trend change during mid- to late-week next week will bring rain and snow back to the western United States and that may eventually bring a new storm system to the northern Plains and upper Midwest late in the week next week or more likely in the following
  weekend.
•  Cool
  weather in the eastern U.S. this week will shift back to western Canada and a few areas in the northern Plains and northwestern states while the east turns warmer.
  
• In
  the rest of the world, Spain, southern France and Portugal will remain dry biased.
  
• A
  few showers will occur in Morocco, but dryness will remain in place throughout northwestern Africa.
  
• Eastern
  Europe and the western CIS will continue to see waves of snow and some rain in the south.
  
• India’s
  weather will trend drier this week
• East-central
  and southeastern China will see waves of rain and a little snow.
• Eastern
  Australia will experience scattered showers and thunderstorms.
• Indonesia
  will be favorably and some net drying will occur in South Africa. 
• A
  tropical cyclone that moved across Madagascar during the weekend will move through Mozambique early this week producing flooding rain and some property and crop damage

Source:
World Weather, inc.

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Monday,
Jan. 24:

• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• Ivory
  Coast cocoa arrivals
• Brazil’s
  Unica to release cane crush, sugar output data during the week (tentative)
• U.S.
  cold storage data for pork, beef and poultry; poultry slaughter, 3pm
• USDA
  total milk production, 3pm

Tuesday,
Jan. 25:

• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Malaysia’s
  Jan. 1-25 palm oil exports
• Moscow
  Agros Expo conference, Jan. 25-27

Wednesday,
Jan. 26:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
• HOLIDAY:
  Australia, India

Thursday,
Jan. 27:

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Paris
  Grain Day conference, Jan. 27-28
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports

Friday,
Jan. 28:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, ~1:30pm
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• U.S.
  cattle on feed, 3pm

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

USDA
inspections versus Reuters trade range                                                    

Wheat                 
400,973                 versus   250000-450000  range

Corn                     
1,115,731             versus   900000-1600000                range

Soybeans           
1,297,802             versus   1200000-1900000             range

 

All
within range but China topped corn and soybeans as largest taker.

 

 

 

Macros

ICE
chat:

US
Oil Output Likely To Be North Of 12 Mln Bpd Into 2023, Unlikely To Reach Previous 13 Mln Bpd Peak – Occidental CEO Vicki Hollub

US
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Dec: -0.15 (Prev 0.37; PrevR 0.44)

 

Corn

·        
CBOT corn ended lower from quiet export developments over the weekend, sharply higher USD, lower WTI crude oil and a decline in soybeans.

·        
USDA US corn export inspections as of January 20, 2022 were 1,115,731 tons, within a range of trade expectations, below 1,237,248 tons previous week and compares to 1,403,063 tons year ago. Major countries included China for 347,449
tons, Japan for 340,530 tons, and Mexico for 305,448 tons.

·        
We lifted our 2021-22 US corn import projection to 35 million bushels, 10 million above USDA, based on strong demand from Canada.

https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/alberta-feedlot-operators-running-low-on-grain-for-cattle-1.5748405

·        
A week from today we will see monthly EIA US ethanol production and a week from Tuesday corn for ethanal use.

 

Export
developments.

·        
Under the 24-hour announcement system, private exporters sold 150,800
metric tons of corn to unknown destinations during the 2021-22 marketing year.

 

 

Updated
1/21/22

March
corn is seen in a $5.90 to $6.35

 

Soybeans

·        
CBOT soybeans ended up loser on Monday after Argentina saw very good rains over the weekend. The USD was higher but came off from earlier highs. Soybean oil was lower to start from weakness in palm oil and unwinding of oil/meal
spreading. WTI crude kept it lower until that market rebounded late. Look for a higher trade in SBO on Tuesday. 

·        
USDA announced 132,000 tons of soybeans were sold to China, of that 66,000 tons for this crop-year.  900,000 tons of soybeans were announced by USDA under the 24-hour system this month so far for the 2021-22 delivery (does not
include new-crop of 198,000). Year ago, USDA announced only 390,500 tons for current and new-crop combined for the month of January.

·        
USDA US soybean export inspections as of January 20, 2022 were 1,297,802 tons, within a range of trade expectations, below 1,726,719 tons previous week and compares to 2,103,465 tons year ago. Major countries included China for
640,876 tons, Italy for 140,872 tons, and Mexico for 101,039 tons.

·        
A week from today we will see monthly EIA US soybean oil and tallow/grease for biodiesel production and a week from Tuesday soybean crush.

 

Export
Developments

·        
Under the 24-hour announcement system, private exporters sold
132,000
metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China.  Of
the total, 66,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2021-22 marketing year and 66,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2022-23 marketing year.

·        
Turkey’s state grain board TMO seeks about 6,000 tons of crude sunflower oil on Jan. 28 for shipment between Feb. 8 and Feb. 25.

 

 

Updated
1/20/22

Soybeans
– March $13.25-$14.75

Soybean
meal – March $370-$435

Soybean
oil – March 59.00-64.50

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat futures were higher today led by KC from ongoing Russia/Ukraine tensions and persistent dryness across the US. The KC/Chicago spread is impressive.

·        
Producer selling across the Black Sea has not slowed according to a local source.

 

·        
USDA US all-wheat export inspections as of January 20, 2022 were 400,973 tons, within a range of trade expectations, above 384,291 tons previous week and compares to 571,677 tons year ago. Major countries included Philippines
for 123,098 tons, Nigeria for 50,254 tons, and Jamaica for 34,208 tons.

·        
The European Union said they are ready to impose “never-seen-before” economic sanctions on Russia if it attacks Ukraine, and EU foreign ministers said they would send a unified warning to Moscow. (Reuters)

·        
Russia wheat exports are running 21 percent below the same season year ago through January 20.

·        
Reuters confirmed that China on January 19 sold 468,738 tons of wheat out of reserves, or 94 percent of what was offered.

 

Below
Bloomberg story covering MARS EU winter grain crops…

(Bloomberg)
— Winter crops in Europe have had favorable conditions due to relatively mild temperatures and normal precipitation across most of the continent, the EU’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit said Monday in a report.  “These conditions allowed stands that
were lagging behind in development to partially catch up, and currently, winter crops are generally in fair to good (or very good) condition.”  No significant frost damage seen so far in winter-grain fields.  However, most areas have only built up a weak tolerance
to frost due to the mild weather, which is a risk in case of cold snaps.  That’s a particular concern in areas near the Black Sea where snow cover is limited.  There’s been a significant increase in rapeseed plantings versus last year, while grains hold stable

 

Export
Developments.

·        
The Philippines seeks 36,000 tons of Australian wheat on January 25 for April 1-30 shipment.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of feed barley on January 26 for July – August shipment. 

·        
Jordan retendered on wheat seeking 120,000 tons on February 1 for July – August shipment.

 

Rice/Other

·        
South Korea seeks 46,344 tons of rice from (mainly) China on Jan 27.

 

Updated
1/20/22

Chicago
March $7.50 to $8.30 range

KC
March $7.65 to $8.55 range

MN
March $8.75‐$10.00