PDF Attached
Soybeans
were up for the fourth consecutive day and March soybean oil made another new contract high. Soybean meal was higher on technical buying and South Korea interest. Corn rebounded. Wheat prices traded two-sided, ending higher. Today was the last day of trading
for many Asian markets ahead of the Lunar New Year/Spring Festival holiday. China will be off all next week (resumes February 7). Malaysian palm markets will be closed from January 31 through February 2 (trading resumes Feb. 3).
Private
exporters reported the following activity:
-264,000
metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2022-23 marketing year
-141,514
metric tons of soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 2021-22 marketing year
-251,500
metric tons of soybeans received in the reporting period for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2021-22 marketing year
Weather
World
Weather Inc.
WEATHER
EVENTS AND FEATURES TO WATCH
- Florida
citrus and some sugarcane areas will experience frost and freeze conditions Sunday morning with frost again Monday - The
impact on citrus and sugarcane should be low - Most
of the 2021 cane has been harvested, but a little late season fieldwork remains to be done - Sugarcane
will be burned back by frost and freezes, but the cold will not be serious enough to permanently harm crops - Citrus
trees will see low temperatures of 26 to 31 degrees Fahrenheit with frost possible throughout the production region - Freezes
should be most significant in the northern and western counties of central Florida’s primary production region - The
duration of cold is not likely to be long enough to permanently harm trees and citrus fruit should be protected by irrigation systems and other means to keep groves warm during the coldest night and morning - Unprotected
trees could experience leaf damage, but blossom buds for 2022-23 fruit should not be seriously harmed - Unharvested
fruit in unprotected groves could be slightly damaged in the coldest areas in northwestern counties - There
is some potential for a few extreme lows of 24-25, but such readings will be extremely rare - Monday
morning will also be cool with some frost again, but morning temperatures will mostly be in the 30s Fahrenheit
- U.S.
hard red winter wheat areas will have a good chance for snow and a little rain and freezing rain during mid-week next week - The
precipitation will help boost topsoil moisture, but the status of drought is unlikely to change - This
will not be a trend changer, but significant snowfall is expected followed by bitter cold temperatures - The
cold will not harm wheat as long as the snow falls as expected - Southwestern
portions of the Plains will not get significant amounts of moisture, but some snow will fall there, as well - California
and the far western U.S. will experience limited precipitation during the next ten days to two weeks.
- the
lack of moisture will maintain concern over drought, although there is still more time for improved rain and snowfall later in the year - Mountain
snowpack in the Sierra Nevada is still normal to slightly above normal for this time of year, but relative to the April 1 peak of the season snow water equivalency is only 55-60% of normal - Eastern
U.S. weather will become more active once again next week and there will potential for heavy to excessive precipitation in a part of the northern Delta, Tennessee River Basin and lower eastern Midwest in the middle to latter part of the week
- The
region will be closely monitored for possible flooding - Some
rain will also impact the southeastern states - Heavy
snowfall is expected in the Midwest - Atlantic
Coast storm today and Saturday will produce strong wind and some heavy rain and snow along the northern half of the U.S. Atlantic Coast and on into southeastern Canada - Coastal
areas of New England will be most impacted by blizzard conditions - Snow
accumulations of 5-12 inches will occur in eastern Massachusetts with local totals possibly more in coastal areas while 2 to 8 inches occurs farther to the south into Delaware - Snowfall
of 8 to 20 inches will occur in eastern Maine and southeastern Quebec may get 10 to 20 inches - Blizzard
conditions are expected especially in New England and Quebec as well as Nova Scotia, Canada - Eastern
U.S. Midwest and Atlantic Coast States will experience cold weather through weekend
- Another
round of positive and negative single digit lows will occur in the Midwest Saturday morning with similar conditions in the northeastern and middle Atlantic Coast states Sunday - Warming
is expected for a little while early to mid-week next week and then colder weather will come after another winter storm impacts the Midwest and northeastern U.S. as well as southeastern Canada during the second half of next week
- The
cold will continue into the following weekend - West
Texas is not expecting much precipitation for a while, although some snow and rain may occur briefly during mid- to late week next week - Resulting
moisture totals will not be great enough to seriously change soil conditions - Flooding
is expected in far northern Parana and Sao Paulo tonight through Monday as rainfall of 3.00 to more than 8.00 inches results - The
region was drier biased earlier in the growing season and the moisture will help improve deep soil moisture and water supply - Some
improvement in the water flow along the Parana River should be expected, but the river will not come back to “normal” levels - Flooding
could negatively impact soybeans readying for harvest and will certainly delay fieldwork through the coming week - Less
frequent and less significant rain should evolve later next week - Sugarcane
may be in standing water for a while which might not be best for the crop, but the region’s excess moisture should slowly drain away in the following week - Minor
coffee production areas impacted by the flooding rain should not be seriously impacted, but less rain might eventually be welcome - Excessive
heat in northeastern Argentina, Paraguay and southwestern Brazil has ended for a while - Temperatures
will be more seasonably warm over the next ten days - The
heat and dryness has crippled most crops in the region especially Paraguay especially after being accompanied by very dry conditions - Some
rain will fall in these areas during the second week of the forecast, Feb. 4-10, but it is still debatable how significant the relief will be - A
larger Safrinha crop of corn might be attempted in Paraguay if enough rain falls, but only temporary improvements in topsoil moisture are anticipated - Argentina
will experience net drying for a little while - The
bottom line for the bulk of corn, soybean, sorghum, sunseed and peanut production areas should be good during the next week to ten days with alternating periods of rain and sunshine - Subsoil
moisture is improving after recent rain has been percolating downward through the soil after the topsoil became saturated earlier in the past week - Southwestern
Argentina will get some rain during the coming week, but most other areas will be dry until the Feb. 4-10 period when showers and thunderstorms will occur once again in an erratic manner - Argentina
still has a good chance for seeing another high pressure ridge during the middle part of February, but its impact may not be as great on the nation as that of earlier this month - Southwestern
Canada’s Prairies and the northwestern U.S. Plains will get some snowfall in the next couple of weeks, but moisture totals will continue lighter than usual away from the Rocky Mountains - South
Africa weather will include increasing scattered showers and thunderstorms periodically during the next ten days favoring fieldwork and crop development - The
environment should help improve crop conditions in those areas that became too wet for a while earlier this month and last - Temperatures
will be near to above average - Australia’s
eastern agricultural areas will experience periods of rain and sunshine over the next two weeks with mostly seasonable temperatures - Queensland
cotton and sorghum areas will get most of their rain in the second week of the forecast and eastern cotton and sugarcane areas should become wettest - New
South Wales will see a better distribution in rainfall favoring improved dryland summer grain, cotton and livestock conditions - India’s
weather will be dry biased for a while except in the extreme north and east - Recent
rain has been ideal for winter crops moving into reproduction and the outlook is good for high yields this year especially if some timely rain falls in February and temperatures do not turn hot - The
outlook favors near to below-average temperatures and an opportunity for rain later in February
- Showers
in the coming two weeks will occur mostly in and near Nepal as well as in a few far northern crop areas - Eastern
China’s weather will be typical for this time of year over the next couple of weeks with waves of rain and a little snow occurring across the east-central and southeastern parts of the nation favoring the Yangtze River Basin - Rainfall
of 1.50 to 5.00 inches will occur from near the Yangtze River southward to the coast during the next ten days with a few greater amounts possible
- Some
significant snow may impact northern parts of the Yangtze River Basin as well - Sufficient
moisture is expected to maintain a very good outlook for rapeseed and winter wheat - Local
flooding is possible, but crop damage is not very likely - Limited
moisture in the north is not unusual for this time of year and the soil is favorably rated for the start of spring - There
are no areas of drought in eastern China - Concern
has been rising over the lack of precipitation in Xinjiang this winter and especially the mountains which may cut into spring runoff potential for irrigated summer crops - CIS
weather over the next two weeks will continue offering periods of snow and some rain in the south with temperatures frequently warmer than usual - The
bottom line is favorable for most winter crops which have not encountered much winterkill this year - Concern
remains over low groundwater in southern parts of Russia’s New Lands and northern Kazakhstan
- Similar
conditions are present in central and eastern Ukraine and Russia’s Volga Basin, but there is a deep accumulation of snow that should improve that situation in the spring snow melt season - Western
Europe will continue to experience less than usual precipitation during the next week while eastern Europe gets enough moisture to maintain favorable snow cover and soil moisture - A
boost in precipitation will soon be needed in Spain, Portugal and neighboring areas - Some
forecast model runs overnight suggested Spain, France and Portugal may get some rain in the second week of the outlook
- Eastern
Europe precipitation will continue periodically while temperatures are near to above normal in this coming week - Less
precipitation is expected next week - Middle
East snow cover is more widespread than usual reaching across most of Turkey and into western and northern Iran - Then
moisture will be good for winter crops when warming melts the snow - North
Africa is unlikely to see much precipitation for a while, although a few showers are expected infrequently
- Drought
remains most serious in southwestern Morocco, but dryness is also a concern in northwestern Algeria and in a few northeastern Morocco locations - Some
increase in precipitation is advertised for Feb. 4-10, but it will be light precipitation and confidence is a little low on its significance
- Ethiopia
has been seasonably dry recently while light showers occur in Uganda and southwestern Kenya - Tanzania
has been and will continue wettest which is normal for this time of year in east-central Africa
- Little
change is expected in these patterns through the next two weeks - West-central
Africa will continue seasonably dry with near normal temperatures for the next ten days - Indonesia,
Malaysia and Philippines rainfall should occur routinely over the next two weeks support most crop needs.
- No
excessive rainfall is expected - Northern
Vietnam’s weather is expected to trend a little drier, but some showers may still occur infrequently - Today’s
Southern Oscillation Index is +1.21 - The
index may move higher during the next seven days - New
Zealand rainfall will continue lighter than usual this week and then increase next week - The
nation has been drying out in recent weeks - Temperatures
will trend a little warmer than usual - Mexico
will experience slightly cooler than usual weather with a few showers in the east during the coming week - Northern
and western areas in the nation will be drier than usual - Central
America precipitation will be greatest along the Caribbean Coast , but including a fair amount of Panama and Costa Rica - Guatemala
will also get some showers periodically - Western
Colombia Ecuador and Peru rainfall may be greater than usual in the coming week
- Western
Venezuela will soon begin receiving rain once again after a bout of dryness - The
remainder of Venezuela will remain dry - A
tropical Cyclone moving through open water in the Indian Ocean may eventually bring a threat of rain and wind to Mauritius and Reunion Islands placing some sugarcane at risk of damage - There
is plenty of time for the storm to veer to the south and it will be closely monitored
Source:
World Weather Inc.
Bloomberg
Ag Calendar
Friday,
Jan. 28:
- ICE
Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, ~1:30pm - CFTC
commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm - U.S.
cattle on feed, 3pm
Monday,
Jan. 31:
- USDA
export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am - Malaysia’s
palm oil exports in January - U.S.
agricultural prices paid, received, 3pm - U.S.
cattle inventory, 3pm - Ivory
Coast cocoa arrivals - HOLIDAY:
China, South Korea, Vietnam
Tuesday,
Feb. 1:
- International
Cotton Advisory Committee releases market outlook report - EU
weekly grain, oilseed import and export data - U.S.
Purdue Agriculture Sentiment - USDA
soybean crush, DDGS output, corn for ethanol, 3pm - Honduras,
Costa Rica monthly coffee exports - Australia
commodity index - India’s
federal budget - New
Zealand global dairy trade auction - ProZerno
holds Mountain Grain Assembly in Sochi, Russia, Feb. 1-4 - HOLIDAY:
China, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Indonesia, South Korea, Singapore, Vietnam
Wednesday,
Feb. 2:
- EIA
weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production - HOLIDAY:
China, Hong Kong, Malaysia, South Korea, Singapore, Vietnam
Thursday,
Feb. 3:
- FAO
World Food Price Index and grains supply/demand outlook - USDA
weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am - New
Zealand Commodity Price - Port
of Rouen data on French grain exports - HOLIDAY:
China, Hong Kong, Vietnam
Friday,
Feb. 4:
- ICE
Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, ~1:30pm - CFTC
commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm - HOLIDAY:
China, Vietnam
Source:
Bloomberg and FI
CFTC
Commitment of Traders
After
a volatile week leading up to January 25, traditional funds were 18,000 contracts more long than expected in corn, and 21,100 contracts less long than expected for Chicago wheat.
Reuters
table
SUPPLEMENTAL
Non-Comm Indexes Comm
Net Chg Net Chg Net Chg
Corn
276,521 51,693 442,390 234 -681,756 -49,211
Soybeans
89,651 18,334 191,114 -14,149 -243,793 -5,938
Soyoil
27,538 15,582 119,470 468 -158,080 -17,648
CBOT
wheat -33,001 9,143 138,222 402 -97,077 -10,568
KCBT
wheat 15,775 3,951 56,055 1,104 -72,632 -2,796
=================================================================================
FUTURES
+ OPTS Managed Swaps Producer
Net Chg Net Chg Net Chg
Corn
365,605 39,082 291,383 -310 -678,313 -47,538
Soybeans
114,895 15,255 144,350 -15,711 -257,085 -7,581
Soymeal
64,334 -410 100,095 -26 -204,726 4,405
Soyoil
68,773 10,565 88,119 -815 -167,464 -20,169
CBOT
wheat -13,427 11,474 88,186 -4,203 -80,838 -7,957
KCBT
wheat 40,634 4,516 25,844 -316 -62,479 -2,724
MGEX
wheat 3,340 -516 1,949 -28 -13,326 -1,926
———- ———- ———- ———- ———- ———-
Total
wheat 30,547 15,474 115,979 -4,547 -156,643 -12,607
Live
cattle 49,321 -12,855 81,365 -915 -135,998 16,724
Feeder
cattle 184 -5,281 4,638 107 645 2,719
Lean
hogs 66,907 18,113 60,350 59 -116,933 -16,939
Other NonReport Open
Net Chg Net Chg Interest Chg
Corn
58,480 11,482 -37,155 -2,715 1,903,794 75,478
Soybeans
34,813 6,283 -36,972 1,752 883,842 42,369
Soymeal
11,911 -2,384 28,387 -1,585 451,424 -7,199
Soyoil
-498 8,821 11,071 1,598 455,930 21,131
CBOT
wheat 14,224 -336 -8,145 1,022 498,029 29,251
KCBT
wheat -4,800 784 803 -2,259 242,083 2,211
MGEX
wheat 3,813 774 4,224 1,697 72,609 682
———- ———- ———- ———- ———- ———-
Total
wheat 13,237 1,222 -3,118 460 812,721 32,144
Live
cattle 15,579 -3,087 -10,267 134 386,440 8,865
Feeder
cattle 1,100 313 -6,567 2,144 57,392 4,258
Lean
hogs 4,610 -2,556 -14,934 1,322 314,486 38,018
Macros
81
Counterparties Take $1.615 Tln At Fed Reverse Repo Op. (prev $1.584 Tln, 85 Bids)
Biden
Sanctions Plan Targets Russian Banks, Companies And Imports If Ukraine Is Attacked – WSJ
Traders
Now Said To See 100 Basis Points Of Fed Rate Increases By September Versus November Previously
NATO’s
Secretary General: Russia Is Deploying Thousands Of Combat-Ready Troops, S-400s Into Belarus
US
Personal Income Dec: 0.3% (est 0.5%; prev 0.4%; prevR 0.5%)
–
US Personal Spending Dec: -0.6% (est -0.6%; prev 0.6%; prevR 0.4%)
–
US Real Personal Spending Dec: -1.0% (est -1.1%; prev 0.0%; prevR -0.2%)
US
Univ. Of Michigan Sentiment Jan F: 67.2 (est 68.8; prev 68.8)
–
Current Conditions: 72.0 (est 73.2; prev 73.2)
–
Expectations: 64.1 (est 65.9; prev 65.9)
–
1-Year Inflation: 4.9% (est 4.9%; prev 4.9%)
–
5-10 Year Inflation: 3.1% (prev 3.1%)
IMF
Staff Statement on Argentina
https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2022/01/28/pr2218-argentina-imf-staff-statement-on-argentina
Corn
·
CBOT corn rebounded by 5.0-10.75 cents in old crop led by the March contract. New crop was up only 2.75 cents, a reversal for the old/new crop spreads from yesterday. Widespread commodity buying aided corn prices today, along
with sharply higher soybeans and wheat.
·
Baltic Dry Index increased 6.1% to 1,381 points.
·
Funds bought an estimated net 19,000 contracts.
·
The EPA finalized the proposed rule to extend refinery compliance deadlines for small refiners. This move to delay biofuel compliance may support RIN prices during first half 2022, but already might be factored in the market as
it was announced back in November. Ethanol 2022 RIN’s were around 1.15-1.17 this morning.
·
USDA Attaché: Argentina corn production 51 million tons, 3 million below USDA.
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Grain%20and%20Feed%20Update_Buenos%20Aires_Argentina_01-20-2022
·
Bloomberg: U.S. cattle herd as of Jan. 1 seen falling by over a million head to 92.5m, the lowest level in six years, according to the avg in a Bloomberg survey of four analysts.
Export
developments.
·
None reported
Updated
1/28/222
March
corn is seen in a $6.10 to $6.55 (up 20 cents both ends)
December
corn is seen in a wide $5.25-$7.00 range
·
CBOT soybeans, meal and oil were higher on follow through buying initially led by strength in soybean oil. Crush rallied again today but closed well off session highs for the March position. March soybeans hit an absolute contract
high of $14.79. We would not rule out $15.00-$15.10/bu sometime next month if commodities in general continue to rally and soybean demand shifts from South America to the US.
·
Funds bought an estimated net 13,000 soybeans, bought 4,000 soybean meal and bought 6,000 soybean oil.
·
USDA this morning reported a combined 657,014 tons of old and new-crop soybeans sold by private exporters under the 24-hour announcement system.
·
Buenos Aires grains exchange lowered their estimate of the Argentina soybean planted area by 100,000 hectares to 16.3 million. They are currently at 44 million tons for soybean production. USDA official is at 49.5MMT and USDA
Attaché at 46.5MMT.
·
South Korea bought another 60,000 tons of soybean meal overnight and that might be supporting CBOT meal futures.
·
CBOT soybean oil was higher from strength in other global vegetable oil prices. There are concerns Ukraine sunflower oil shipments could be disrupted. March soybean oil broke above a trend channel of 65.72 going back to June 2021
but closed below that level at 65.27. Stops were triggered 1300x running it to highs at 8:56 a.m.
·
Palm futures went out on a strong note before their holiday. April Malaysian palm futures traded higher by 184 ringgit to 5,528, a new record, and the futures market was up 6 consecutive weeks. Malaysian cash CPO was up $38.50/ton
to $1,400.00.
·
Much of the rally in palm oil late this week was related to higher Black Sea sunflower oil cash prices, slow global crush rates despite amble supply of oilseeds, and Indonesia curbing palm exports over the medium term. This has
also supported CBOT soybean oil.
·
Indonesia was in the news again with a focus on policy changes announced this month for commodities. The latest included that all cooking oil producers will be required to sell 20% of their planned export to the domestic market.
This comes after they banned coal exports and were looking into an export tax on nickel pig iron. Indonesia’s GAPKI sees palm oil exports during 2022 down 3 percent to 33.21 million tons from 34.23 million tons for 2021, even though they look for 2022 production
to expand 4.5% to 49 million tons for CPO (palm kernel seen at 4.8MMT) from 46.89 million tons. Remember 2021 both Indonesia and Malaysia saw production problems. For the month of February, Indonesia will leave its export tax and levy for CPO unchanged at
the highest brackets of $200 per ton and $175 per ton, respectively. The CPO reference price for February is at $1,314.78 per ton, up from January’s 1,307.76 per ton.
·
Third month palm oil futures…
·
Under the 24-hour reporting system, private exporters reported:
-264,000
tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2022-23 marketing year
-141,514
tons of soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 2021-22 marketing year
-251,500
tons of soybeans received in the reporting period for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2021-22 marketing year
-
South
Korea’s FLC and FBG bought a combined 60,000 tons of soybean meal from South America at an estimated $544.99 a ton c&f for arrival in South Korea around May 17. Yesterday NOFI bought 60,000 tons of soybean meal.
-
Iran’s
SLAL bought 60,000 tons of feed barley and 60,000 tons of soybean meal for Feb-Mar shipment. It’s not known if they bought 60,000 tons of corn. The feed barley was expected to be sourced from Germany.
-
Turkey’s
state grain board TMO bought about 6,000 tons of crude sunflower oil at an estimated $1,410.90 a ton c&f. Shipment was sought between Feb. 8 and Feb. 25.
Updated
1/28/22
Soybeans
– March $14.25-$15.25 (up 50 cents, up 25)
Soybeans
– November is seen in a wide $12.00-$15.75 range
Soybean
meal – March $390-$440 (up $15, up $5)
Soybean
oil – March 61.50-69.00
(up 200, up 400)
·
US wheat futures traded two-sided, ending higher led by the MN type contracts. Ukraine/Russia tensions remain in focus. Egypt bought 420,000 tons of wheat and did not include French origin.
·
Funds bought an estimated net 6,000 Chicago wheat contracts.
·
U.S. hard red winter wheat production areas will get some welcome snow and a little rain during the middle to latter part of next week.
·
Russia set their February wheat export tax to $93.90/ton for the February 2-8 period, down from $95.80/ton from the January 26-February 1 period. Barley increases to $74.60/ton from $74.40/ton and corn decreases to $49.20/ton
from $50.60/ton
·
March Euronext futures settled 1.50 euros, or 0.5%, higher at 278.75 euros ($310.97) a ton.
-
Egypt’s
GASC bought 420,000 tons of wheat for March 5-15 and March 16-26 shipment. There was no French wheat origin. The purchase comprised 60,000 tons of Ukrainian wheat, 60,000 tons of Russian wheat, and 60,000 tons of Romanian wheat for shipment March 5-15, and
120,000 tons of Ukrainian wheat, 60,000 tons of Romanian wheat and 60,000 tons of Russian wheat for shipment March 16-26. Reuters provided the following:
Shipment
between March 5-15:
-Ukrainian
$326.00 FOB plus $20.89 = $346.89 c&f
-Russian
$329.65 FOB plus $20.35 = $350 c&f
-Romanian
$329.65 FOB plus $19.75 = $349.40
Shipment
between March 16-26:
-Ukrainian
$326.00 FOB plus $20.89 = $346.89 c&f
-Romanian
$329.65 FOB plus $19.75 = $349.40 c&f
-Ukrainian
$328.77 FOB plus $21.23 = $350 c&f
-Russian
$329.20 FOB plus $20.35 = $349.55 c&f
-
Japan’s
AgMin bought 22,410 tons of food wheat from Australia. Yesterday they bought 25,431 tons. Original details as follows.
-
The
Philippines bought around 50,000 tons of feed wheat from Australia at about $338 to $340 a ton c&f for June shipment.
-
Three
groups from the Philippines are seeking feed wheat for April-May, April-October and/or May-July shipment.
·
Results awaited: Iran’s SLAL seeks 60,000 tons of barley, 60,000 tons of corn and 60,000 tons of soybean meal for Feb/Mar shipment.
·
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of wheat on February 1 for July – August shipment.
-
Jordan
seeks 120,000 tons of feed barley on February 2.
Rice/Other
·
Results awaited: South Korea seeks 46,344 tons of rice from (mainly) China on Jan 27.
Updated
1/20/22
Chicago
March $7.50 to $8.30 range
KC
March $7.65 to $8.55 range
MN
March $8.75‐$10.00
Terry Reilly
Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds
Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.
Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181
W: 312.604.1366
ICE IM:
treilly1
Skype: fi.treilly
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