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Weather
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WEATHER
EVENTS AND FEATURES TO WATCH
- Bitter
cold temperatures occurred in the southern U.S. Plains this morning
- Temperature
extremes in West Texas fell into the upper single digits as far south as Midland, Texas - Lows
were in the teens and 20s in central Texas - Cloudiness
protected fruit and vegetable crops in southern Texas from much damage
- Another
cold night is expected in Texas tonight
- Frost
and freezes will reach into the fruit and vegetable areas of southern Texas with a little damage possible - Extreme
lows in the central Texas will be in the teens with a few single digit readings - Strong
heating fuel demand will continue through Saturday in the southern Plains
- Cold
temperatures will impact most of the U.S. Midwest, Delta and interior southeastern states Saturday and Sunday mornings
- No
crop damaging cold will impact areas from southern Georgia to Florida
- U.S.
weather will improve after today
- Impressive
winter storm is abating today - Total
snow accumulations reached 15 inches in northern Indiana - Significant
ice and snow fell from central Texas to the Ohio River Valley and of course the central Plains and lower Missouri River Valley was also impacted on Wednesday - Significant
rain fell in the Delta and Tennessee River Basin causing some flooding - Power
outages were widespread Thursday from then southern Plains to the Ohio River Valley - Snow,
freezing rain and rain will continue this morning in the northeastern U.S. - The
storm will abate this afternoon - Rain
will fall in Florida this weekend again early next week
- U.S.
weather will be more tranquil for the next ten days
- Weak
weather systems will bring shots of cooler air periodically from the northern Plains into the Midwest and eastern states, but no major winter storm systems are likely
- The
next larger storm will impact the lower Midwest and southeastern Plains as well as the Delta after Feb. 14 - Greater
cooling should resume in the north-central U.S. during the week of Nov. 14 as well - Warming
is likely this weekend and next week with temperatures above normal from the central Plains into western Canada’s Prairies and in a part of the western U.S.
- No
significant snow cover was on the ground the past two days in South Dakota, Nebraska, Montana and north-central Kansas may have led to a little crop damage because of bitter cold temperatures, but losses should be very light relative to the nation’s total
crop - West
Texas has received some snow earlier this week, but moisture totals were not enough to seriously change soil conditions
- Snow
will linger today and bitter cold will occur into Saturday morning
- Livestock
stress will ease this weekend with warming temperatures and melting snow
- Argentina’s
rain Thursday and this morning was greatest in Cordoba and northwestern Buenos Aires
- The
moisture maintained very good soil moisture in the region which is going to carry normal crop development through the drier week that lies ahead after today
- Central
Argentina is not expecting much rain for the next ten days and crop areas will dry out enough to become more stressful for plant development
- The
area includes central and northern Santa Fe, northeastern Cordoba, Santiago del Estero, southern Chaco and portions of Entre Rios and southern Corrientes
- Northeastern
Argentina, Paraguay and neighboring areas of southern Brazil will get some much needed rainfall this weekend that will bring relief to persistent heat and dryness
- The
moisture will improve topsoil conditions with some locations getting 1.00 to 3.00 inches and possibly a little more - Dry
weather will resume in all of these areas during the following full week and possibly for ten days returning some dryness in time - Soybeans
are too badly damaged in some areas of Paraguay and Rio Grande do Sul to recover much from the expected rain - Second
season and late full season crops will benefit most from the moisture - Crops
in Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul will benefit from the moisture - Safrinha
planting in Paraguay and southern Brazil will increase after this weekend’s rain passes
- Too
much rain will continue to fall across portions of center west and center south Brazil during the coming week raising concern over crop quality and over delays in harvest progress
- Mato
Grosso to Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais are already saturated with moisture and frequent rainfall will maintain those conditions through all of next week
- Heavier
rainfall for a while during early to mid-week will result in flooding especially in Minas Gerais, but perhaps in a few Goias, Sao Paulo and Mato Grosso locations as well
- Less
intensive rain will be impacting Brazil’s center west and center south crop areas during the second week of the forecast, but the those areas will not be dry.
- Southwestern
Europe and northwestern Africa will continue to receive a limited amount of rain for the next ten days leaving parts of Morocco and northwestern Algeria too dry
- Spain
is also a little dry, but as long as these areas get improved precipitation later in this month and in March wheat and barley performance should go relatively well - Some
rain is expected in northeastern Algeria and Tunisia during the second week of the forecast
- Eastern
Europe and the western CIS will continue to receive frequent snow and some rain through the next ten days maintaining moisture abundance and snow cover will remain widespread
- There
is no threatening cold for the next two weeks in any of these areas
- South
Africa has been and will continue to receive alternating periods of rain and thunderstorms through the next two weeks
- Sufficient
rain will fall to maintain good soil moisture for all summer crops over the next two weeks - Temperatures
will be seasonable with a few locations a little cooler biased this week and then a little warmer again next week
- Rain
fell in Queensland, Australia Wednesday and Thursday improving topsoil moisture, but will now turn drier again - Tropical
Cyclone Batsirai was located 213 miles northwest of St. Denis Reunion Island at 1200 GMT today
- The
storm was moving west southwesterly at 7 mph while producing maximum sustained wind speeds to 126 mph
- Hurricane
force wind was occurring out 50 miles from the center of the storm
- Batsirai
will move west southwesterly and will make landfall over Madagascar by 1500 GMT Saturday
- Flooding
and some damaging wind are expected - The
storm may produce some serious crop and property damager
- India’s
latest rain event in the north and extreme east will linger through the weekend
- Sufficient
moisture will occur to support reproducing winter crops, but the area impacted will be limited to the far north, areas near Nepal and from Bihar and Jharkhand and West Bengal through Bangladesh to India’s far Eastern states - Net
drying is expected elsewhere
- Eastern
China’s weather will be typical for this time of year over the next couple of weeks with waves of rain and a little snow occurring across the east-central and southeastern parts of the nation favoring the Yangtze River Basin
- Rainfall
of 1.00 to 4.00 inches will occur from near the Yangtze River southward to the coast during the next ten days with a few greater amounts possible
- Some
significant snow may impact northern parts of the Yangtze River Basin as well - Local
moisture totals may reach up over 5.00 inches in the interior southeast
- Sufficient
moisture is expected to maintain a very good outlook for rapeseed and winter wheat
- Local
flooding is possible, but crop damage is not very likely
- Limited
moisture in the north is not unusual for this time of year and the soil is favorably rated for the start of spring - There
are no areas of drought in eastern China - Concern
has been rising over the lack of precipitation in Xinjiang this winter and especially the mountains which may cut into spring runoff potential for irrigated summer crops
- Middle
East snow cover is more widespread than usual reaching across most of Turkey and into western and northern Iran
- Some
snow melt is expected - The
moisture will be good for winter crops when warming melts the snow
- Ethiopia
has been seasonably dry recently while light showers occur in Uganda and southwestern Kenya
- Tanzania
has been and will continue wettest which is normal for this time of year in east-central Africa
- Little
change is expected in these patterns through the next two weeks
- West-central
Africa will continue seasonably dry with near normal temperatures for the next ten days - Indonesia,
Malaysia and Philippines rainfall should occur routinely over the next two weeks support most crop needs.
- No
excessive rainfall is expected
- Mainland
Southeast Asia’s weather is expected be a little unsettled for a while with sporadic light showers periodically, but no general soaking rain is expected
- Vietnam’s
Central Highlands may get rain next week, but confidence is low
- Today’s
Southern Oscillation Index is +4.46
- The
index will move higher during the next seven days
- New
Zealand will receive some welcome rain today through the weekend easing a long period of below average precipitation
- Follow
up precipitation is possible next week - The
moisture will be welcome and help to raise topsoil moisture - Temperatures
will trend a little warmer than usual
- Mexico
will experience slightly cooler than usual weather with a few showers in the east during the coming week
- The
remainder of the nation will be dry
- Central
America precipitation will be greatest along the Caribbean Coast , but including a fair amount of Panama and Costa Rica
- Guatemala
will also get some showers periodically
- Western
Colombia, Ecuador and Peru rainfall may be greater than usual in the coming week
- Western
Venezuela will soon begin receiving rain once again after a bout of dryness
- The
remainder of Venezuela will remain dry
Source:
World Weather Inc.
Bloomberg
Ag Calendar
Friday,
Feb. 4:
- ICE
Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, ~1:30pm - CFTC
commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm - HOLIDAY:
China, Vietnam
Monday,
Feb. 7:
- USDA
export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am - Ivory
Coast cocoa arrivals - HOLIDAY:
New Zealand
Tuesday,
Feb. 8:
- Canada’s
StatCan releases wheat, durum, canola, soybeans and barley stockpile data, 8:30am - EU
weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
Wednesday,
Feb. 9:
- EIA
weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production - USDA’s
monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) report, 12pm
Thursday,
Feb. 10:
- USDA
weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am - Malaysian
Palm Oil Board’s data on palm oil reserves, output and exports - French
agriculture ministry releases 2022 winter grain and rapeseed planting estimates - Brazil’s
Conab report on yield, area and output of corn and soybeans - Brazil’s
Unica releases sugar output and cane crush data (tentative) - IKAR
grain conference in Moscow - Vietnam’s
customs department to publish data on coffee, rice and rubber exports in January - Malaysia’s
Feb. 1-10 palm oil exports
Friday,
Feb. 11:
- ICE
Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, ~1:30pm - CFTC
commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm - March
ICE white sugar contract expiry - HOLIDAY:
Japan
Source:
Bloomberg and FI
SUPPLEMENTAL
Non-Comm Indexes Comm
Net Chg Net Chg Net Chg
Corn
289,313 12,792 435,629 -6,761 -688,807 -7,051
Soybeans
132,483 42,832 191,922 807 -284,565 -40,772
Soyoil
38,111 10,573 118,982 -488 -170,359 -12,280
CBOT
wheat -46,462 -13,462 139,667 1,445 -88,798 8,279
KCBT
wheat 14,424 -1,352 55,535 -520 -71,784 849
=================================================================================
FUTURES
+ OPTS Managed Swaps Producer
Net Chg Net Chg Net Chg
Corn
372,551 6,946 276,197 -15,185 -685,597 -7,284
Soybeans
154,488 39,594 134,702 -9,648 -290,658 -33,572
Soymeal
76,743 12,409 94,979 -5,116 -222,225 -17,498
Soyoil
80,476 11,704 86,427 -1,692 -177,504 -10,041
CBOT
wheat -26,452 -13,025 89,444 1,259 -72,282 8,556
KCBT
wheat 37,799 -2,835 25,491 -352 -61,419 1,061
MGEX
wheat 3,960 619 2,416 467 -13,764 -438
———- ———- ———- ———- ———- ———-
Total
wheat 15,307 -15,241 117,351 1,374 -147,465 9,179
Live
cattle 69,272 19,951 80,727 -637 -155,912 -19,913
Feeder
cattle -2,019 -2,202 5,828 1,190 673 29
Lean
hogs 69,968 3,060 60,189 -162 -120,739 -3,806
Other NonReport Open
Net Chg Net Chg Interest Chg
Corn
72,983 14,504 -36,135 1,021 1,979,521 75,727
Soybeans
41,308 6,494 -39,839 -2,867 1,006,519 122,677
Soymeal
18,592 6,681 31,910 3,523 478,164 26,740
Soyoil
-2,665 -2,166 13,266 2,195 496,168 40,238
CBOT
wheat 13,697 -527 -4,407 3,738 492,052 -5,978
KCBT
wheat -3,696 1,104 1,825 1,023 246,168 4,085
MGEX
wheat 3,648 -165 3,741 -483 71,980 -629
———- ———- ———- ———- ———- ———-
Total
wheat 13,649 412 1,159 4,278 810,200 -2,522
Live
cattle 18,759 3,180 -12,847 -2,580 387,842 1,402
Feeder
cattle 2,404 1,304 -6,887 -320 55,921 -1,470
Lean
hogs 4,794 184 -14,211 724 329,074 14,588
=================================================================================
Corn
·
Corn futures settled higher on Friday but for the week posted a weekly loss on slowing demand and ample Black Sea supplies that have prompted China to cancel US corn commitments.
·
Funds bought an estimated net 2,000 corn contracts.
USDA
Attaché on Brazil corn
“Post
revised down its 2021/22 forecast corn harvest to 113 million metric tons (MMT) on the account of disappointing first-crop corn volumes. Consequently, the corn export forecast is also lowered to 42 MMT. Meanwhile, imports will remain above average levels,
though they will continue to be sourced mostly from the Mercosur trade bloc. Post forecasts wheat production at 7.7 MMT for the 2021/22 season, an increase of over 1.45 MMT from the current season thanks to forecast expansion in the planted area. Wheat imports
are projected to rebound after the low volumes registered over the last two seasons. Wheat exports will remain high, thanks to a diverse buyers’ base.”
Export
developments.
·
South Korea’s KFA bought 65,000 tons of animal feed corn at an estimated $340.99 a ton c&f for arrival in South Korea around May 25.
Updated
2/2/222
March
corn is seen in a $5.95 to $6.55
December
corn is seen in a wide $5.25-$7.00 range
·
CBOT soybeans rallied on ongoing SA crop concerns. March settled 9.25 cents higher at $15.5350. Contract high stands at $15.64. CBOT March soymeal ended up $6.80 at $443.90 per short ton, while March soyoil BOH2 fell 0.39 cent
to finish at 65.36 cents per pound.
·
Argentina could see erratic rain over the next week, keeping some people to wonder if the late planted beans will be able to thrive through the first half of this month.
·
News was light. USDA announced sales to unknown.
·
Funds bought an estimated net 5,000 soybeans, bought 4,000 soybean meal and sold 1,000 soybean oil.
·
India imposed limits on oilseeds and edible oils stocks to combat hording and high prices. For edible oils, the limit would be three tons for retailers and 50 tons for wholesaler and it would be applicable until June 30, it said.
Oilseed processors could hold stocks up to 90 days of their daily production capacity. (Reuters)
BA
Grains Exchange: 42 million tons
https://lt.mydplr.com/275bd5063df7d293c1ece06aae2559bf-1f70cd5c99e2034347bb73393d563dce
·
Iran’s SLAL bought 180,000 tons of soybean meal from South America for shipment in February and March.
·
Private exporters reported sales of 295,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations. Of the total, 252,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2021/2022 marketing year and 43,000 metric tons is for delivery
during the 2022/2023 marketing year.
Updated
2/1/22
Soybeans
– March $14.50-$15.75
Soybeans
– November is seen in a wide $12.00-$15.75 range
Soybean
meal – March $400-$460
Soybean
oil – March 62.50-69.00
·
US wheat futures firmed on Friday despite slowing global demand and ample moisture that fell across parts of the US hard red winter producing region and soft red winter growing areas.
·
March wheat on Paris-based Euronext settled up 4.25 euros, or 1.6%, at 265.50 euros ($304.16) a ton.
·
China lifted restrictions on Russian imports of wheat and barley, allowing imports from all regions.
·
Funds bought an estimated net 6,000 Chicago wheat contracts.
·
(Bloomberg) — Russian Wheat-Export Tax to Edge Lower to $93.20/Ton Next Week. Russia’s wheat export customs duty will fall to $93.20/ton next week, from $93.90, according to the Agriculture Ministry’s website.
·
South Korea’s MFG bought 110,000 tons of feed wheat for April/March shipment. 55,000 tons was bought at $328.50 a ton c&f. Another 55,000 tons at $331.90 a ton c&f.
·
The Philippines seek feed wheat from Australia and soybean meal from Argentina on February 11. Amounts are unknown.
·
Jordan saw three offers for 120,000 tons of barley.
-
Results
awaited: Iran’s SLAL seeks 60,000 tons of barley (combo with soybean meal) on Wednesday for February and March shipment. They bought meal and barley last week.
·
Rice/Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons of wheat set to close February 14.
Other
·
None reported
Updated
2/2/22
Chicago
March $7.25 to $8.30 range
KC
March $7.45 to $8.55 range
MN
March $8.75‐$10.00
Terry Reilly
Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds
Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.
Suite 1450
Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181
W: 312.604.1366
ICE IM:
treilly1
Skype: fi.treilly
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