PDF Attached
Europe
changes their clocks Sunday. Private exporters reported sales of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2021/2022 marketing year. CFTC COT showed index funds and managed money extended long positions in agriculture, on a combined
basis. CBOT grain and soybean complex ended the week on a higher note, in part from a rebound in WTI crude oil.
WEATHER
EVENTS AND FEATURES TO WATCH
- Too
much rain has fallen in southern Brazil and southern Paraguay this this week - Drying
is needed and should evolve in time to support most crop needs - Too
much moisture and flooding has disrupted farming activity and raised some concern over unharvested soybean and other crop quality.
- Drying
will occur in time to prevent any lasting negative impact - Moisture
abundance in Brazil will ensure Safrinha crops have abundant moisture to carry on crop development after the monsoonal rains end - Monsoonal
precipitation is expected to linger longer than usual this year because of La Nina and that should translate into a good environment for reproducing Safrinha crops when that time comes around in late April and May - Bahia
and northern Minas Gerais soil moisture is running very short resulting in some crop stress for late season crops - The
production region is host to a minor amount of corn and soybeans, sugarcane and coffee, but the dryness is not likely to have a huge impact on production - Some
sugarcane could be stunted with rising sucrose levels - Coffee
should mature quickly with a slight negative impact on quality for these minor production areas - Cotton,
corn and soybeans produced in western Bahia have not been significant impacted by the drier bias in central Bahia - Argentina’s
rain in the south this week bolstered soil moisture substantially in Buenos Aires and will see it that late double cropped soybeans and late season corn have plenty of moisture to development with well into April without additional moisture - Temperatures
in Argentina will be mild enough to conserve soil moisture during the coming period of drier biased weather - Western
Argentina will experience the least amount of rain for a while and the ground is expected to firm up, but no serious impact on production is expected due to mild temperatures and lingering subsoil moisture - U.S.
central Plains precipitation so far this month has been great enough to improve crop conditions during the warmer days that lie ahead - Another
storm system due into the region during mid-week next week will maintain the favorable crop development potential, but drying is still expected to resume later in April and May to threaten some production of wheat and possibly summer grain and oilseed crops - U.S.
Midwest soil conditions are wet and flood conditions have been reported recently in several areas - Drying
in the coming five days will be welcome, but more rain during the middle to latter part of next week is expected to return wet field conditions possibly delaying the start of spring fieldwork.
- U.S.
Delta and Tennessee River Basin remains too wet and unlikely to see ideal planting weather in the next couple of weeks - Some
planting will occur after several days of drying, but additional rain expected during the middle to latter part of next week will saturate the soil again inducing some new planting delays - West
and South Texas are dry and expected to remain that way through most of the next two weeks - Some
rain may fall in the Rolling Plains, but the high Plains and South Texas will continue too dry.
- Rain
will fall in the Blacklands and upper Texas Coast next week maintaining favorable soil and field conditions in those areas - A
mix of rain and sunshine will impact the southeastern U.S. during the next two weeks supporting spring fieldwork and early season crop development - California
will receive rain and mountain snow briefly Sunday into Monday - The
storm is not the beginning of a trend change, but the moisture will be welcome - Any
precipitation is better than none, but this event will be too light and brief to have much impact on drought conditions or water supply
- U.S.
northwestern Plains and southwestern Canada’s Prairies will continue drier than usual resulting in ongoing concern over spring planting conditions - Some
moisture is possible in the next few weeks, but April is expected to be drier and warmer than usual once again - Europe
rainfall through the weekend is expected mostly in Spain and Portugal while any showers that occur elsewhere (and there will be some) are expected to be too light and brief to have much impact on soil moisture which should slowly decline - Greater
rainfall is expected in central and eastern Europe starting during the middle to latter part of next week and continuing through the first full week in April - The
moisture will be good in improving spring planting and early winter crop development potentials over time - Temperatures
will be near to above normal this week and probably next week as well - Much
of Russia, northern Kazakhstan and the Baltic States were dry again Thursday while a little rain fell in north-central Ukraine and eastern Belarus
- Temperatures
have been warming sufficiently to melt snow in western Russia where recent highest temperatures were in the 40s and 50s Fahrenheit.
- Some
60-degree highs occurred in Ukraine the past few days - Some
increase in precipitation is expected in the western CIS this weekend and next week as waves of snow and rain evolve across the region - Temperatures
will be seasonable, although trending cooler this weekend into next week - The
precipitation may perpetuate some flood potential since there is so much snow to melt this year and significant runoff has already occurred - India
weather will continue mostly dry and seasonably warm to hot through the next ten days
- There
is some risk of showers and thunderstorms in Kerala and immediate neighboring areas of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu as well as in the far Eastern States and extreme northern most parts of the nation - China’s
rain Thursday was widespread in the Yangtze River Basin and areas south to the southern coastal provinces while snow and rain fell in northeastern parts of the nation.
- Drying
is needed in east-central and southeastern China were too much rain has fallen this month - Flooding
could be threatening to some rapeseed and a few other crops in the Yangtze River Basin.
- China’s
will see a better mix of rain and sunshine during the next week to ten days - Improving
crop and field working conditions are expected - Australia
rainfall Thursday and that expected into early next week will be great enough to bring some increase in soil moisture to southeastern Queensland and northeastern New South Wales - The
precipitation may raise a little concern over cotton fiber quality since most bolls are open or opening - Some
temporary discoloring of cotton fiber is possible - South
Africa weather will include mild to warm temperatures over the next week ten days while rainfall is sporadic and light.
- The
environment should be good for late season crop development, early crop maturation and harvest progress - Indonesia
and Malaysia rainfall will be abundant during the next ten days with rain falling every day in portions of the region
- Some
local flooding will be possible - Philippines
rainfall is expected to be periodic and mostly beneficial during the next ten days; wettest in the south and east over the next ten days
- Mainland
areas of Southeast Asia will also experience a near-daily occurrence of showers and thunderstorms during the next ten days - The
environment will be very good for crop development and helpful in raising topsoil moisture for corn and rice planting - A
tropical disturbance may impact the Vietnam coast during the second half of next week, although confidence is low
- Colombia,
Ecuador, western Venezuela and parts of Peru will remain plenty wet during the next ten days - Frequent
rain is expected - The
moisture will be great for coffee and cocoa flowering and well as support of all crops - Ghana
and Ivory Coast will receive erratic rainfall over the next week - The
precipitation may be a little more erratic than desired outside of Ivory Coast and Ghana in the remainder of west-central Africa.
- Greater
rain is still be needed in interior Nigeria and interior Cameroon as well as some Benin locations, despite a little rain this week - The
greatest and most widespread precipitation is expected over the next few days - East-central
Africa precipitation has been most significant in Tanzania - Ethiopia
has been dry biased along with much of Kenya - Some
rain will develop in Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda over the next few days easing some dryness, but more will be needed - The
moisture boost will be welcome. - Today’s
Southern Oscillation Index is +13.11 - The
index will slowly slip lower over the coming week - Mexico
will experience seasonable temperatures and a limited amount of rainfall during the coming week; southeastern areas will be wettest - Central
America precipitation will be greatest along the Caribbean Coast during the next seven to ten days and in both Panama and Costa Rica - Guatemala
will also get some showers periodically
Source:
World Weather Inc.
- USDA
export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am - Ivory
Coast cocoa arrivals
Tuesday,
March 29:
- EU
weekly grain, oilseed import and export data - Vietnam’s
General Statistics Department releases March export data for coffee, rice and rubber
Wednesday,
March 30:
- EIA
weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am - USDA
hogs and pigs inventory, 3pm
Thursday,
March 31:
- U.S.
annual acreage prospective planting data for various farm commodities, including wheat, barley, corn, cotton, soybeans and sunflower, noon - USDA
quarterly stockpile data for wheat, barley, corn, oats, soybeans and sorghum, noon - USDA
weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am - U.S.
agricultural prices paid, 3pm - Malaysia’s
March palm oil export data
Friday,
April 1:
- ICE
Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report - CFTC
commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm - Australia
Commodity Index - USDA
soybean crush, DDGS output, corn for ethanol, 3pm - FranceAgriMer
weekly update on crop conditions
Source:
Bloomberg and FI
Combined
soybeans, soybean oil, soybean meal, corn, soft wheat and KC wheat net long managed money position was again a record at 808,835 contracts. As true for the combined soybeans, soybean oil, soybean meal, corn, soft wheat and KC wheat net long index fund position
at a record 1,171,253 contracts. Open
interest for the week ending 3/22 was up sharply for corn.
Reuters
Table via CFTC
SUPPLEMENTAL
Non-Comm Indexes Comm
Net Chg Net Chg Net Chg
Corn
304,695 8,651 474,754 7,722 -743,092 -7,291
Soybeans
112,072 6,028 217,249 9,224 -302,760 -14,468
Soyoil
53,412 -5,849 117,878 -995 -189,426 3,333
CBOT
wheat -41,255 -3,782 165,037 -412 -120,684 829
KCBT
wheat 16,289 731 64,996 -317 -80,695 506
=================================================================================
FUTURES
+ OPTS Managed Swaps Producer
Net Chg Net Chg Net Chg
Corn
384,101 11,192 282,310 6,910 -737,088 -10,770
Soybeans
174,192 3,502 124,835 -4,166 -298,311 -2,769
Soymeal
101,164 -1,995 92,830 426 -245,261 2,372
Soyoil
84,078 -5,093 88,244 41 -194,523 2,962
CBOT
wheat 19,511 -3,434 79,089 -2,186 -95,401 1,741
KCBT
wheat 45,789 1,553 23,138 -1,540 -71,045 1,288
MGEX
wheat 14,222 -165 602 -179 -27,004 339
———- ———- ———- ———- ———- ———-
Total
wheat 79,522 -2,046 102,829 -3,905 -193,450 3,368
Live
cattle 41,878 1,734 76,583 -1,030 -125,848 73
Feeder
cattle -1,382 1,682 6,562 -349 1,267 -929
Lean
hogs 62,434 -910 58,954 475 -114,381 2,093
Other NonReport Open
Net Chg Net Chg Interest Chg
Corn
107,034 1,749 -36,358 -9,082 2,149,285 66,274
Soybeans
25,846 4,218 -26,562 -786 1,016,326 17,229
Soymeal
19,100 -1 32,166 -802 457,776 10,279
Soyoil
4,064 -1,421 18,137 3,512 415,464 1,447
CBOT
wheat -100 515 -3,098 3,364 518,617 5,021
KCBT
wheat 2,707 -379 -589 -921 208,907 -785
MGEX
wheat 6,920 -655 5,261 661 68,469 554
———- ———- ———- ———- ———- ———-
Total
wheat 9,527 -519 1,574 3,104 795,993 4,790
Live
cattle 22,021 -148 -14,634 -630 366,192 -2,904
Feeder
cattle 859 -502 -7,306 98 58,366 -1,316
Lean
hogs 3,134 -1,271 -10,142 -388 315,861 -6,763
=================================================================================
86
Counterparties Take $1.677 Tln At Fed Reverse Repo Op (prev $1.708 Tln, 88 Bids)
US
Pending Home Sales (M/M) Feb: -4.1% (est 1.0%; prev -5.7%; prevR -5.8%)
US
Pending Home Sales NSA (Y/Y) Feb: -5.4% (est -2.2%; prev -9.1%; prevR -9.2%)
US
University Of Michigan Sentiment Mar F: 59.4 (est 59.7; prev 59.7)
US
University Of Michigan Current Conditions Mar F: 67.2 (est 67.6; prev 67.8)
US
University Of Michigan Expectations Mar F: 54.3 (est 54.4; prev 54.4)
·
US corn futures ended higher at the electronic close on weaker WTI crude and higher wheat. News was thin.
May
CBOT corn
traded at $7.50 for the 17th consecutive session, settling at $7.54, up 5.75 cents.
·
For the week corn was up 1.7%.
·
SA corn is cheaper than US for May/June positions by 20-30 cents.
·
US crude oil settled at $113.90/Bbl, up $1.56 or 1.39%.
·
Ukraine lifted the requirement for export licenses for corn and sunflower oil for 2021-22 season. Export restrictions remain in place for other staple crops to ensure domestic supplies.
(Bloomberg)
— March 1 hog inventory seen falling to 73.05m head vs 73.93m head in the same period last year, according to the avg in a Bloomberg survey of eight analysts. That would be the sixth straight quarter of y/y declines. Breeding inventory seen down 0.1% y/y,
and market hogs seen falling 1.3% y/y. The pig crop seen rising 1.3% y/y. Dec.-Feb. farrowing seen up slightly (+0.4%) y/y, while farrowing intentions for March-May seen down slightly (-0.3%). Report is due out on March 30.
Export
developments.
- South
Korea’s NOFI group bought 137,000 tons of SA origin corn at $403.90/ton and $404.89 for June 25-July 1 arrival. They also bought feed wheat from India.
- Turkey
bought 175,000 tons of corn from domestic warehouses at $389.75/ton for April 8 through May 5 delivery.
- Results
awaited in Turkey seeking 325,000 tons of corn. Optional origin for April 8 and May 5 shipment. They also seek 175 tons of local corn.
China
hog producers
are seeing profits further erode from higher feedgrain costs and weaker pig prices. China soybean meal futures are up about 35% while live hog futures recently fell to their lowest since the contract launched in early 2021. China May corn futures are up about
7.5 percent on a nearby rolling basis.
Source:
Reuters and FI
Updated
3/23/22
May
corn is seen in a $6.75 and $8.10 range
December
corn is seen in a wide $5.50-$7.50 range
·
CBOT May
soybeans and soybean oil started lower but a reversal in WTI and other outside commodity markets turned prices higher. Soybean meal was higher for the majority of the day session. US SBM basis remains firm. May soybeans finished 9.50 cents higher at $17.1025,
May meal up $2 at $487.90, and May SBO up 46 at 74.75 cents.
·
For the week, soybeans were up 2.5%, soymeal up 2.3% and soyoil was up 3.4%.
·
USDA announced 132,000 tons of current crop year soybeans were sold to China.
·
Ukraine lifted the requirement for export licenses for corn and sunflower oil for 2021-22 season due to ample supplies. Export restrictions remain in place for other staple crops to ensure domestic supplies.
·
We are hearing some sunflower oil is trying to make its way out of Ukraine through rail.
·
AmSpec reported Malaysian March 1-25 palm exports at 1.009 million tons, down nearly 5 percent from the same period month ago. ITS shows a 4.9% decrease.
·
Malaysian palm oil gained 7 percent this week.
- Under
the 24-hour reporting system, private exporters reported sales of 132,000 tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2021-22 marketing year. - Qatar
seeks to buy 960k cartons of corn oil in a tender closing April 4.
Seasonal
November Soybean / December Corn ratio – new crop soybean look cheap relative to corn
Source:
Reuters and FI
Updated
3/14/22
Soybeans
– May $16.00-$18.00
Soybeans
– November is seen in a wide $12.50-$16.00 range
Soybean
meal – May $430-$520
·
US wheat futures were higher on ongoing Black Sea shipping concerns and drought conditions across the southern Great Plains. Texas and surrounding states are still abnormally dry.
More
than half of Kansas was classified as under severe drought or worse as of March 8.
·
May Chicago wheat was up 16.50 to $11.0225, May KC up 15.75 to $11.1075, and May MN up 26 cents to $11.0875.
·
For the week Chicago was 3.6% higher, KC up 3.5% and MN up 4.0%.
·
Prices did grind lower earlier on talk of slowing global import tender development. Since the Ukraine/Russia situation started, major importers dependent on Black Sea supplies are switching to alternative origins, but some traders
may think the transition is slower than expected.
·
Emerging alternative markets are increasing commitments, such as India, and this is seen as potential loss in US market share.
·
Canadian wheat exports as of March 20 were about 155,000 tons, down 35 percent from the previous week and crop-year to date exports are off 40 percent from a year earlier at 7.35 million tons.
·
Ukraine planted 150,000 hectares of spring grains so far this season.
·
Russia’s wheat export duty as of March 30 increases to $87 from $86.40 per ton. Barley decreases $75.80 from $79.60 per ton and corn will rise to $58.30 from $53.20 per ton.
·
Iran plans to send wheat to Lebanon where stocks are very thin.
·
French soft wheat conditions were rated 92 percent G/E as of March 21, unchanged from the previous week and up from 87 percent year earlier. Winter barley and durum wheat are both 88%.
·
May Paris milling wheat settled up 4.75 euros, or 1.3%, at 381.25 euros ($418.80) a ton.
·
Qatar seeks 105,000 tons of optional origin animal feed barley on March 27 shipment in April, May and June.
·
South Korea’s NOFI group bought 65,000 tons of Indian feed wheat at $379.86/ton for July arrival.
·
Bangladesh is in for 50,000 tons of wheat with a deadline of April 4.
Rice/Other
·
US cotton futures were up limit on US drought concerns, this trade, and USDA export sales hitting a marketing year high last week. More than half of Kansas was classified as under severe drought or worse as of March 8.
·
(Bloomberg) — Qatar is seeking to buy 1.2m bags of rice in a tender that closes April 4, according to the Ministry of Commerce and Industry’s website. Qatar also seeks to buy 960k cartons of corn oil in a tender closing April
4
Updated
3/14/22
Chicago
May $9.35 to $12.50 range
KC
May $9.25 to $12.50 range
MN
May $10.00‐$13.00
Terry Reilly
Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds
Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.
Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181
W: 312.604.1366
ICE IM:
treilly1
Skype: fi.treilly
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