FI Evening Grain Comments 04/18/22

PDF Attached

 

Look
for a higher trade inn wheat on Tuesday after a decline in US winter wheat ratings. Black Sea concerns drove agriculture futures higher Monday. Corn and soybean oil nearby futures contracts hit contract highs.

 

 

Winter
wheat conditions declining was a surprise after the precipitation

 

Weather

 

World
Weather Inc.

WEATHER
EVENTS AND FEATURES TO WATCH

• West
  Texas rain potentials may slowly improve over the next ten days to two weeks.
  
• Multiple
  frontal passages are expected and some of them will be over the region long enough to stimulate a few showers and a couple of thunderstorms eventually
• Initial
  rainfall cannot be very great because of low humidity and dry air, but over time the potential for rain might improve
• No
  general soaking is presently anticipated
• South
  Texas rainfall will be restricted as well, but 0.20 to 0.75 inch of moisture will be possible in the coming ten days which is not enough to adequately moisten the soil in dryland areas
• U.S.
  High Plains region from Nebraska to Western Texas will not be absolutely dry during the next ten days, but resulting rainfall is unlikely to counter evaporation and net drying is still expected
• The
  showers that are anticipated will briefly moisten the topsoil during mid-week this week, during the weekend and again during mid-week next week
• Each
  of these weather systems will be closely monitored for possible change, but as of today the greatest rainfall from each of these systems will be in eastern hard red winter wheat areas where crop conditions are expected to be more favorably rated than those
  in the high Plains
• U.S.
  far northern Plains received additional snow during the weekend from northeastern Montana into northern Minnesota, southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba
• Another
  12 inches of snow accumulated at Minot, N.D. after 30 inches fell last week
• Snowfall
  of 2 to 7 inches were common in other areas
• U.S.
  Northern Plains and eastern Canada’s Prairies will be facing additional storm systems maintaining a wet bias and further raising the potential for planting delays
• Snow
  and rain will return briefly Tuesday night and Wednesday in the eastern Dakotas to Minnesota as well as in Manitoba, Canada
• Moisture
  totals will vary from 0.05 to 0.35 inch with local amounts over 0.60 inch in Minnesota and Manitoba
• Several
  inches of snow will fall in Manitoba
• Other
  areas in Canada’s Prairies will get precipitation tonight into Wednesday favoring the central and northern areas with accumulations of 3 to 10 inches
• A
  much larger storm system is expected in the northern Plains and eastern parts of the Canadian Prairies April 21-23 producing 0.20 to 0.75 inch with local totals of 1.00 to 1.50 inches
  
• Interior
  eastern South Dakota will be an exception with less than 0.20 inch of moisture likely
• Some
  very heavy snow is expected in North Dakota and Manitoba once again with accumulations of 5 to 15 inches possible
• There
  is plenty of time for change on this event and it will be closely monitored
• More
  rain than snow may result
• There
  may be one more storm system in the northern Plains at the end of this month
• If
  all of these disturbances occur in the northern Plains and southeastern Canada’s Prairies will result in some serious delays to farming activity. The flood potential for North Dakota, northern Minnesota and Manitoba Canada will be high as well. A drier and
  warmer weather pattern must develop soon. The Red River in Manitoba is already in flood.
  
• U.S.
  Midwest drying conditions will be poor between storm systems through mid-week this week because of mild to cool temperatures; however, rainfall from most systems is expected to be light
• Some
  field progress is expected, but warmer weather is needed to induce the best possible field progress
• Some
  warming is expected in the U.S. Midwest during the second half of this week
• Temperatures
  will rise into the upper 60s and 70s Fahrenheit Thursday and Friday
• Some
  extreme highs near and above 80 will be possible in the south Friday
• Highs
  in the 70s and lower 80s may occur Saturday and Sunday with the eastern Midwest warmest Sunday
• The
  best planting conditions in the U.S. Midwest will likely occur in the latter part of this week into the weekend before rain evolves again early to md-week next week
  
• U.S.
  Midwest weather late next week will be a little wetter and cooler once again
• U.S.
  Delta and southeastern states will experience some improved weather this week and next week with less frequent precipitation and warmer temperatures
  
• Planting
  progress is expected to slowly improve
• Southwestern
  U.S. weather will remain dry biased through the next two weeks
• Texas
  Blacklands precipitation will vary from 0.75 to 2.00 inches and locally more during the next ten days
• Southwestern
  Canada’s Prairies will not receive much “significant” precipitation during the next ten days, but a few bouts of very light moisture will occur
• Ontario
  and Quebec, Canada will see alternating periods of rain and sunshine over the next two weeks supporting abundant soil moisture.
• Net
  drying is advertised in much of Mato Grosso, northern Mato Grosso do Sul and areas east to southern Bahia, Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo
• Topsoil
  moisture is already rated short in Mato Grosso and central Bahia wile short to very short in northern Minas Gerais.
  
• Subsoil
  moisture is rated marginally adequate in Mato Grosso and short to very short from northeastern Goias to southern Bahia and northern Minas Gerais
• Ten
  days of drying will result in crop moisture stress for Mato Grosso and a few neighboring areas and that could harm production potentials for Safrinha corn and cotton
• Some
  negative impact is also possible for minor grain and oilseed production areas in Bahia and northern Minas Gerais
• Rain
  must develop soon to prevent dryness during reproduction from cutting into yield potentials.
  
• Southern
  Brazil will get periods of rain from late this week through the first half of next week
• Resulting
  precipitation will be sufficient to maintain moisture abundance in the region which may slow some farming activity at times
• Argentina
  experienced net drying during the weekend and similar conditions are expected through Tuesday
• Argentina
  will get rain Wednesday into Saturday of this week, but its significance has been reduced from that advertised Friday
  
• Alternating
  periods of rain and sunshine are expected next week and that should provide a relatively good environment for late season crops and for future planting moisture for winter wheat
• Western
  most crop areas will be driest
• Frequent
  rain will fall from the Amazon River Basin through Ecuador, Colombia and western Venezuela maintaining moisture abundance in those areas
• Some
  heavy rain and flooding will be possible
• Central
  and southern Europe will experience wetter than usual conditions over the next ten days and temperatures may be a little cooler than usual as well
• The
  environment may slow some spring fieldwork, but some progress is expected
• Early
  season winter and spring crop development will advance, albeit slowly due to milder than usual conditions
• Waves
  of rain and some snow in the western CIS will maintain moist field conditions in most of the crop areas west of the Ural Mountains and for some areas to the east as well
• Spring
  fieldwork will be slower advancing than usual because of the precipitation, wet fields and milder than usual temperatures in many areas
• China
  rainfall was widespread in the middle and upper Yangtze River Basin during the weekend with some heavy rain in the Yangtze Basin
  
• Rainfall
  of 3.00 to more than 7.00 inches occurred in a part of the Yangtze Basin while lighter amounts occurred elsewhere.
  
• Temperatures
  were mild in the south and warm in the north
• China’s
  Yangtze River Basin will take a break from precipitation early this week
• Rain
  will develop again during the second half of this week and continuing frequently into next week maintaining favorable moisture
• Net
  drying is expected in China’s Yellow River Basin and North China Plain
• Xinjiang,
  China precipitation is expected to continue mostly in the mountains, but the precipitation will improve spring runoff potentials in support of better irrigation water supply
• India’s
  rainfall will be greatest in the far Eastern States this week, although some pre-monsoonal showers and thunderstorms are expected briefly in the south
• Good
  harvest weather will continue in winter crop areas
• Temperatures
  will remain warm
• Turkey,
  Iran and Afghanistan will be the wettest Middle East countries over the next ten days
• Rain
  is still needed in Syria, Iraq and neighboring areas to the south
• Southeast
  Asia rainfall is expected to be abundant in Indonesia, Malaysia and Philippines while a little erratic in the mainland crop areas
• Overall,
  crop conditions will remain favorable
• Southern
  New South Wales cotton and sorghum areas will be bothered by some early-week rainfall this week; otherwise good crop maturation and harvest weather is expected in summer crop areas
• Next
  week’s weather may trend wetter in a larger part of southeastern Australia
• South
  Africa continues in need of drier weather to protect summer crop conditions and to promote faster crop maturation and harvest progress
• The
  moisture will be good for winter crop planting
• Central
  Africa showers and thunderstorms will occur periodically during the next two weeks to support fieldwork and crop development
• North
  Africa precipitation over the next two weeks will be a little more sporadic and light leading to some net drying
• Crop
  conditions have remained favorable and are not likely to change much in the next ten days, despite some drying
• Mexico’s
  winter dryness and drought have been expanding due to poor precipitation resulting from persistent La Nina
• Northern
  parts of the nation will continue lacking precipitation for an extended period of time
• Eastern
  and southern Mexico will experience some periodic rainfall over the next two weeks and some soil moisture boosting is expected in eastern parts of the nation
• Central
  America precipitation will slowly expand northward in the next few weeks
• the
  moisture will be good for most crops
• Today’s
  Southern Oscillation Index was +14.40 and it should drift a little higher early this week before leveling off
  

Source:
World Weather Inc.

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Tuesday,
April 19:

• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• New
  Zealand global dairy trade auction
• HOLIDAY:
  Malaysia

Wednesday,
April 20:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• China’s
  third batch of March trade data, including soy, corn and pork imports by country
• China
  Agricultural Outlook Conference, Beijing
• USDA
  monthly milk production, 3pm
• Malaysia’s
  April 1-20 palm oil export data

Thursday,
April 21:

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• International
  Grains Council monthly report
• USDA
  red meat production, 3pm
• HOLIDAY:
  Brazil

Friday,
April 22:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• First
  quarter cocoa grinding data from Cocoa Association of Asia
• Brazil’s
  Unica may release cane crush and sugar output data (tentative)
• U.S.
  cattle on feed; cold storage data for pork, beef and poultry, 3pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

USDA
inspections versus Reuters trade range

Wheat                 
432,253                 versus   300000-500000  range    within

Corn                     
1,139,206             versus   1050000-1800000             range    within

Soybeans           
972,509                 versus   500000-1150000                range    within

 

 

 

GRAINS
INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT

                 
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING APR 14, 2022

                           
— METRIC TONS —

————————————————————————–

                             
                     CURRENT     PREVIOUS 

             ———–
WEEK ENDING ———-  MARKET YEAR  MARKET YEAR

 
GRAIN      04/14/2022  04/07/2022  04/15/2021    TO DATE     TO DATE  

 

BARLEY             
0           0           0       10,010       32,620 

CORN       
1,139,206   1,474,156   1,559,267   33,191,718   39,454,930 

FLAXSEED           
0           0           0          324          509 

MIXED              
0           0           0            0            0 

OATS             
100           0       1,099          600        6,514 

RYE                
0           0           0            0            0 

SORGHUM      
316,467     143,839     314,699    4,912,896    5,202,257 

SOYBEANS     
972,509     818,689     222,065   45,964,092   55,213,057 

SUNFLOWER        
336         528           0        1,588            0 

WHEAT        
432,253     419,185     629,065   18,067,567   22,074,810 

Total      
2,860,871   2,856,397   2,726,195  102,148,795  121,984,697 

—————————————————————————-

CROP
MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND

FLAXSEED; 
SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.

INCLUDES
WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

 

Corn

·        
May corn
was higher (well above $8.00) on higher wheat amid Black Sea concerns. WTI crude gained today, adding support. Higher energy prices, including natural gas, are sending thoughts to traders that they will not see acreage increase in June from March intentions.

·        
Ongoing Black Sea shipping concerns should underpin corn this week. The slow start to US plantings and cold US weather could also be supportive.

·        
USDA US corn export inspections as of April 14, 2022 were 1,139,206 tons, within a range of trade expectations, below 1,474,156 tons previous week and compares to 1,559,267 tons year ago. Major countries included China for 402,803
tons, Mexico for 247,082 tons, and Japan for 152,090 tons.

·        
China imported 2.41 million tons of corn last month, a 25 percent increase from a year ago.

·        
Ukraine’s AgMin updated their 2022 summer grain planting intentions to 14 million hectares, up from previous 13.4 million, and well down from 16.9 million planted in 2021.  This estimate is well above private forecasts.  The AgMin
said producers have planted 146,400 hectares of spring wheat, 742,900 hectares of spring barley, 100,500 hectares of peas, 122,600 hectares of corn, 433,700 hectares of sunflower, 110,300 hectares of sugar beet and some other crops. (Rueters)

·        
APK-Inform estimates Ukraine could harvest 38.9 million tons of grain in 2022, almost 55% less than in 2021.

·        
FranceAgriMer reported 8% of the corn crop had been planted, compared with 4% a week earlier and 16% year ago.

·        
Bulgaria reported an outbreak of bird flu at an industrial farm in the village of Bogdanitsa, southern part of the country.

 

Export
developments.

·        
None reported

 

Cost
to Produce Corn and Soybeans in Illinois—2021

Zwilling,
B. “Cost to Produce Corn and Soybeans in Illinois—2021.” farmdoc daily (12):52, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, April 15, 2022.

https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2022/04/cost-to-produce-corn-and-soybeans-in-illinois-2021.html

 

 

Updated
4/18/22

May
corn is seen in a $7.75 and $8.55 range

December
corn is seen in a wide $5.50-$8.00 range

 

Soybeans

·        
Soybeans were higher from strength in outside markets, USDA sales reported on Friday and higher soybean oil. Soybean oil and meal ended higher.

·        
USDA US soybean export inspections as of April 14, 2022 were 972,509 tons, within a range of trade expectations, above 818,689 tons previous week and compares to 222,065 tons year ago. Major countries included China for 301,008
tons, Egypt for 160,015 tons, and Indonesia for 93,196 tons.

·        
Argentina truck drivers’ strike ended Thursday night.  It started Monday.  Truckers are likely to see a 20 percent increase in pay.

·        
NOPA reported a 181.8-million-bushel US March soybean crush, 0.2 million below expectations. Soybean oil stocks fell 164 million pounds below expectations at 1.908 billion pounds. Daily adjusted, the crush rate fell to 5.86 million
bu/day from 5.89 million/day during February. The lower than anticipated stocks reflected a steep monthly drop in the soybean oil yield to 11.83 pounds per bushel versus 11.93 pounds reported for the month of February.  Soybean oil stocks at the end of March
for all the major regions are up from end of March 2021, with exceptions of the far northwestern Corn Belt/upper Great Plains (MN, ND, SD, MT). The March soybean meal yield was 47.24, up from 46.99 previous month. Soybean meal production during March was the
fifth largest, for any month, in our recorded history.

·        
Europe was on holiday today.

·        
Cargo surveyor SGS reported month to date April 15 Malaysian palm exports at 495,096 tons, 79,797 tons below the same period a month ago or down 13.9%, and 88,779 tons below the same period a year ago or down 15.2%.

·        
AmSpec reported Malaysian April 1-15 palm oil exports at 436,548 tons, down 23 percent from 567,637 tons during the March 1-15 period. ITS reported 472,181 tons from 585,277 tons, down 19.3 percent.

·        
Russia’s sunflower oil export duty for the month of May will increase 19% or $58.90/ton to a maximum of $372.20/ton, highest since September 2021. 

 

Export
Developments

·        
Reported Friday: USDA under the 24-hour reporting system reported 838,000 tons of soybeans sold to China and unknown.

-389,000
metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China. Of the total, 121,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2021/2022 marketing year and 268,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2022/2023 marketing year.

-272,000
metric tons of soybeans received during the reporting period for delivery to China during the 2022/2023 marketing year.

-177,000
metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2021/2022 marketing year.

 

 

Updated
4/13/22

Soybeans
– May $16.00-$17.75

Soybeans
– November is seen in a wide $12.75-$15.50 range

Soybean
meal – May $440-$490

Soybean
oil – May 77-82

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat was higher on ongoing Black Sea concerns and dry weather for parts of US winter wheat country.

·        
USDA US all-wheat export inspections as of April 14, 2022 were 432,253 tons, within a range of trade expectations, above 419,185 tons previous week and compares to 629,065 tons year ago. Major countries included Taiwan for 57,075
tons, Mexico for 52,591 tons, and El Salvador for 49,623 tons.

·        
Kazakhstan decided to go ahead with restricting flour and wheat exports until June 2022. 1 million tons of wheat and 300,000 tons of wheat flour will be allowed to be exported during that time period.

·        
China sold 531,469 tons of wheat from reserves at an average price of 2,841 yuan per ton. That represents 96.43 percent of what was offered. 

·        
FranceAgriMer reported 92% of French soft wheat crop was in good or excellent condition for the week ending April 11, unchanged from the previous week and above 86 percent year ago. 

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of feed barley on April 19.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of feed wheat on April 20.

·        
Japan seeks 70,000 tons of feed wheat and 40,000 tons of feed barley on April 20 for arrival by September 29.

·        
Taiwan seeks 47,120 tons of US wheat on April 21 for June 2 through June 21 if shipped off the PNW.

 

Rice/Other

·        
None reported

 

Updated
4/13/22

Chicago May $9.75 to $12.00 range, December $8.50-$12.00

KC May $10.50 to $12.00 range, December $8.75-$13.50

MN May $10.75‐$12.00, December $9.00-$14.00