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Outside
commodity influence sent most contracts lower for soybeans, corn and wheat. Bear spreading was a feature for soybeans while new crop corn saw selling after USDA reported a good increase in US corn plantings as of Sunday. US wheat traded two-sided and were
mostly lower for the day after USDA reported the combined G/E categories up two points to 28 percent from the previous week. US corn plantings were 26 percent, one point below expectations. With a quarter of the corn crop in the ground, look for the trade
to focus more on germination and development over the next couple of weeks. Soybean plantings were 19 percent, 2 points above expectations.
New-crop
soybean/corn ratio
Fund
estimates as of May 2
-
Drought
in Alberta and western Saskatchewan is unlikely to abate during the next two weeks, despite a few showers possible
-
Unusual
warmth occurred in central Alberta Monday with an extreme high of 86 Fahrenheit; many temperatures were in the 70s and lower 80s
-
The
heat will continue into the latter part of this week and then a more seasonably warm temperature regime is expected -
Drought
will continue in Spain, Portugal and northwestern Africa through the coming week and perhaps longer -
Northern
Kazakhstan and southern parts of Russia’s eastern New Lands will continue dry and warm for another week, but some relief may come along in the May 10-16 period.
-
Dryness
has been supporting aggressive spring planting and does not (yet) pose much of a threat to long term crop development unless than pattern resumes later this month or this summer -
U.S.
Midwest excessive wind, cold and showery weather that occurred over the past two days will subside today and should not return again for a while -
Some
structural damage has occurred because of the wind, but the impact on agriculture has been low outside of some delay to farming activity -
West
Texas cotton, corn and sorghum areas will begin receiving some showers and thunderstorms tonight and the precipitation will occur periodically over the next couple of weeks -
A
general soaking of rain is not likely, but these frequent scattering of showers and thunderstorms will bring moisture to the atmosphere which is absolutely necessary if there is ever going to be a greater rain event
-
Texas
Blacklands, Coastal Bend and to a lesser degree South Texas will have opportunity for generalized rain during the coming ten days favoring long term crop development -
Some
of this rain will reach into Louisiana favoring sugarcane and rice areas for rain as well -
Red
River Basin of the North moisture profile will remain abundant to excessive for a little while longer due to rain expected Friday into early next week when 0.30 to 1.00 inch of moisture is expected with local totals to 1.50 inches falls over the already moist
topsoil -
River
flooding continues along the upper half of the Mississippi and in the Red River Basin of the North and this process will continue through much of this month -
Prevent
plant is a possibility for a part of these region’s and in Manitoba Canada, but much will be determined by rainfall that occurs later this month and in June -
A
significant break from rain is needed along with warm temperatures to get fields in better shape for planting -
U.S.
Delta will be plenty moist over the next ten days keeping some farming activity a little slow -
U.S.
southeastern states will see alternating periods of rain and sunshine through the next two weeks maintaining good crop development conditions, but slowing fieldwork at times -
Argentina’s
drier bias will continue over the next ten days maintaining a good summer crop maturation and harvest outlook, but a big boost in soil moisture is needed for winter wheat planting -
Wheat
planting does not usually begin until late this month and June is the most important month for getting crops planted on time -
Center
south and center west Brazil is drying down, but that is normal for this time of year -
Concern
remains over long term soil moisture for the late planted corn -
Rain
will be needed in late May and early June to support the very latest planted crops through reproduction and filling -
Coffee,
citrus and sugarcane in Brazil are maturing favorably with some early harvesting already under way -
Coffee
and citrus production should be high this year while sugarcane yields may be off a little bit because of too much rain at times in the heart of the production region and late season dryness in the minor areas of the north -
Cold
weather will continue to impact northeastern Europe over the next week with the next coldest period of time coming up late this week into early next week
-
No
crop damage is likely except possibly to flowering fruit trees -
Europe
and the western CIS will receive frequent bouts of rain during the next ten days resulting in favorable soil moisture -
This
does not include the Iberian Peninsula or the eastern CIS New Lands where dryness is an ongoing concern -
India’s
weather will continue unsettled over the next ten days and additional waves of rain will impact variously parts of the nation, but big soakings of rain like that of this past weekend is not expected to occur again.
-
The
far north and extreme south will be wettest, though, at least for a while -
Field
working delays have occurred and some of the wettest areas have been suffering from quality declines -
Western
Australia has a very good opportunity for rain this weekend and again next week -
The
two moisture events should bolster topsoil moisture for improved wheat, barley and canola planting, emergence and establishment -
Other
areas in Australia will continue to experience favorable weather for summer crop harvesting and winter crop planting -
All
of eastern China’s agricultural areas will receive rain at one time or another during the next two weeks. -
East-central
and southeastern parts of the nation will be wettest, but the rain will be spread out enough to limit the incidence of flooding -
Crop
conditions should stay mostly favorable, although a little less rain is needed in rapeseed areas to protect crop quality -
Xinjiang,
China continues to battle periods of cool weather and needs to warm up and be consistently warm to support cotton, corn and other crop development.
-
Some
warming is expected this weekend into next week -
Mainland
areas of Southeast Asia are getting more routinely occurring showers and thunderstorms, but resulting rainfall has continued to be lighter than usual
-
Monsoonal
precipitation usually begins in the south late this month -
Indonesia
and Malaysia will continue to experience frequent bouts of rain over the next ten days – no area is expected to become too dry or excessively wet -
Philippines
rainfall will be timely, but there is need for greater rain in the north -
Middle
East soil moisture is greatest in Turkey, but there is need for more moisture in areas to the south and east -
The
environment is not critical, but cotton and rice would benefit from greater rain and improved soil moisture -
Wheat
production was mostly good this year -
South
Africa rainfall will be infrequent and light enough over the next ten days to support most late season crop needs while allowing some harvest progress to continue -
Cotton
areas from southern Mali to Burkina Faso need significant rain to support cotton planting and establishment in unirrigated areas -
Some
showers are possible during the second week of the forecast -
Drought
continues in central and western Mexico while recent rain in the east has improved crop and field conditions -
East-central
Africa precipitation will be sufficient to support favorable coffee, cocoa and, rice and sugarcane development as well as other crops -
Central
Asia cotton and other crop planting is under way and advancing relatively well with adequate irrigation water and some timely rainfall expected -
Today’s
Southern Oscillation Index was 0.49 and it should move erratically higher over the next several days
Source:
World Weather, INC.
Tuesday,
May 2:
- US
Purdue Agriculture Sentiment - Malaysia’s
April 1-30 palm oil exports - New
Zealand global dairy trade auction - HOLIDAY:
China,
Vietnam
Wednesday,
May 3:
- EIA
weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am - HOLIDAY:
China,
Japan, Vietnam
Thursday,
May 4:
- USDA
weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am - Port
of Rouen data on French grain exports - New
Zealand Commodity Price - HOLIDAY:
Japan, Malaysia, Thailand, Bangladesh
Friday,
May 5:
- FAO
World Food Price Index - Malaysia’s
May 1-5 palm oil export data - ICE
Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report - CFTC
commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm - FranceAgriMer’s
weekly crop condition report - HOLIDAY:
Japan, South Korea, Thailand
Source:
Bloomberg and FI
Soybean
and Corn Advisory
2022/23
Brazil Soybean Estimate Unchanged at 153.0 Million Tons
2022/23
Brazil Corn Estimate Unchanged at 123.0 Million Tons
2022/23
Argentina Soybean Estimate Unchanged at 23.0 Million Tons
2022/23
Argentina Corn Estimate Unchanged at 36.0 Million Tons
Selected
Brazil export data for the month of April.
Commodity
April 2023 April 2022
CRUDE
OIL (TNS) 5,259,390 4,446,938
IRON
ORE (TNS) 25,203,986 24,728,715
SOYBEANS
(TNS) 14,341,164 11,472,577
CORN
(TNS) 470,805 690,295
GREEN
COFFEE(TNS) 138,018 165,744
SUGAR
(TNS) 971,592 1,316,827
BEEF
(TNS) 110,339 157,360
POULTRY
(TNS) 408,278 386,510
PULP
(TNS) 1,577,720 1,709,151
Source:
Reuters per AgMin
Macros
US
Factory Orders (M/M) Mar: 0.9% (est 1.3%; prev -0.7%)
–
Factory Orders Ex-Trans (M/M): -0.7% (prev -0.3%)
US
Durable Goods Orders (M/M) Mar F: 3.2% (est 3.2%; prev 3.2%)
–
Durable Ex-Transportation (M/M): 0.2% (est 0.3%; prev -0.3%)
–
Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (M/M): -0.6% (est -0.4%; prev -0.4%)
–
Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (M/M): -0.5% (prev -0.4%)
US
JOLTS Job Openings Mar: 9.590M (est 9.736M; prev R 9.974M)
Crude-oil
production from OPEC members declined by 310,000 barrels per day in April, according to the latest Bloomberg survey of producers, oil companies and industry analysts.
102
Counterparties Take $2.267 Tln At Fed Reverse Repo Op. (prev $2.240 Tln, 103 Bids)
Brazil
Trade Balance Surplus April: $8.225 Bln (est $8.6 Bln)
U.S.
crude oil futures settle at $71.66/bbl,(dn) $4.00, 5.29 pct
·
Outside commodity markets such as WTI crude oil weighted on CBOT
corn futures. The back months lost ground against July as US corn planting progress advances and traders buying new-crop soybeans over new-crop corn.
·
US corn shipments to China are starting to slow per USDA export inspections. Don’t discount additional corn cancelations this week.
·
US weather looks good over the next week for fieldwork progress.
·
IA was 29 percent complete for corn plantings and IL 40 percent.
·
Some traders continue to point out the increase in global weather events for this summer as El Nino strengthens. There was talk about an increase in May through July Midwestern storms (high winds) and uncertainty over Black Sea
grain development.
·
Brazil see rain over the next week, benefiting second corn crop development.
·
Brazil 2022/2023 total corn crop seen at 131.59 million tons versus 131.34 million tons in previous forecast. Brazil 2022/2023 second corn crop seen at 100.8 million tons versus 100.54 million tons in previous forecast.
Export
developments.
·
None reported
Updated
05/02/23
July
corn $5.00-$6.50
December
corn $4.75-$6.50
·
Soybeans, meal and oil were attempted to trade higher earlier but most contracts ended lower on widespread commodity selling. Soybean oil traded higher throughout much of the session but a large decline in US energy prices eroded
gains. Palm oil snapped a 6 session losing streak by trading about 2 percent higher. earlier that spilled over into CBOT soybean oil.
·
The US Midwest will gain see cooler than normal temperatures this week but it shouldn’t have a large impact on early crop development. Look for US soybean planting progress to accelerate this week. IL is already 39 percent done
and IA 16 percent.
·
Argentina grain and oilseed exports during the month of April amounted to 2.4 billion USD, down 23 percent compared to year earlier.
·
Conab reported Brazil soybean harvest progress as of April 29 at 93.7%, up 4.7 points from the previous week. Year ago, it stood at 94 percent. 64% of the summer corn harvest is complete, down from 68 percent year ago.
·
StoneX: Brazil 2022/2023 soybean crop seen at 157.7 million tons versus 157.7 million tons in previous forecast.
·
European Union 2022-23 season soybean imports reached 10.29 million tons as of April 30, down 12% from the 11.76 million in the same period of the previous season. Rapeseed imports so far reached 6.54 million tons, up 46% from
the 4.48 million tons year ago. Soymeal imports totaled 13.05 million tons, down 4% from 13.65 million tons from the prior season.
·
China returns from holiday on Thursday.
·
Malaysian palm oil shipments:
-
ITS:
1,176,432 (-261,642 or down 18.19%) vs 1,438,074 previous month -
AmSpec:
1,104,726 (-297,416 or down 21.21%) vs 1,402,142 previous month
University
of Illinois: Renewable Diesel and Biodiesel Feedstock Trends over 2011–2022
Gerveni,
M., T. Hubbs and S. Irwin. “Renewable Diesel and Biodiesel Feedstock Trends over 2011–2022.”
farmdoc daily (13):80, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, May 1, 2023.
Export
Developments
-
Result
awaited: USDA seeks 860 tons of vegetable oil in 4 liter cans for use in export programs. Shipment was scheduled for Jun 1-30 (June 16 to July 15 for plants located at ports).
Updated
04/27/23
Soybeans
– July $13.50-$14.75, November $12.00-$15.00
Soybean
meal – July $375-$500, December $325-$500
Soybean
oil – July 48.50-54.00,
December 48-58
·
US wheat futures traded lower led by high protein wheat in part to improving North American weather. Multi month lows in Chicago limited losses. Chicago wheat hit its lowest level since April 2021. KC wheat fell to its lowest
level since October 2021.
·
Look for Black Sea headlines to possibly move grain market prices this week as the expiration of the grain export deal is a about a week away.
·
September Paris milling wheat officially closed down 6.75 euros, or 2.9%, at 230.00 euros a ton (about $252.90/ton).
·
April Ukraine grain exports totaled 3.62 million tons compared with 923,000 tons year earlier. 2022/23 season stood at 41.6 million tons as of May 1, including about 14.4 million tons of wheat, 24.4 million tons of corn and about
2.5 million tons of barley.
·
SovEcon sees 2022-23 Russian wheat exports at 44.4 million tons, 100,000 tons below previous.
·
Russia continues to threaten to pull out of the Black Sea grain deal, but the trade might be ignoring the threats as it seems to become a daily routine. May 18 is the deadline for the deal to expire.
·
As of late last week, Russian 12.5 percent protein wheat was quoted around 265/ton fob, about steady from the previous week.
·
StoneX sees large Russian wheat exports for 2023-24 despite a dip in production. Russia should have ample ending stocks for 2022-23.
·
EU soft wheat exports as of April 30 were 25.67 million tons, up 9% compared with 23.46 million a year earlier.
·
The European Commission officially set restrictions ibn Ukraine grain imports until June 5 for five countries (Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia).
·
USDA’s May S&D reports will be released a week from Friday. Below is our US wheat by class estimates for the upcoming report. Note USDA will be releasing initial projections for the 2023-24 crop years.
Export
Developments.
·
Jordan bought 60,000 tons of wheat at $288.50/ton c&f for FH October shipment. On April 18 they paid $303 / ton for 50,000 tons of wheat for LH October shipment.
·
Egypt’s lowest offer for wheat was $260/ton fob, Russian origin.
·
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of feed barley May 3 for October through FH November shipment.
Rice/Other
·
Rice registrations fell 10 lots.
·
(Reuters) – Vietnam’s rice exports in the January-April period are estimated to have risen about 43.6% from a year earlier to 2.96 million tons, government data showed on Saturday. Revenue from rice exports in the period is seen
up 54.5% at $1.6 billion. April rice exports from Vietnam, one of the world’s leading shippers of the grain, were estimated at 1.1 million tons, worth $574 million.
·
Sugar fell for the second day on talk of a good Brazil production.
·
(Reuters) – The global sugar market is heading to a smaller supply surplus of 1.1 million tons in 2022/23 (Oct-Sept) from a March estimate of 2.5 million tons surplus, after frustration with crops in areas such as India, Mexico
and the European Union. According to projections released on Tuesday by broker and analyst StoneX in a presentation that is part of the New York Sugar Week, the situation is expected to improve only slightly in the new season (2023/24) to a global supply surplus
of 1.3 million tons. The broker’s sugar production projection for India, the world’s second largest producer, was cut to 32.8 million tons in the current season that ends in September from 34.1 million tons seen in March. India’s new crop (2023/24) was seen
basically stable at 32.5 million tons. StoneX does not see a recovery in India next season because planted area is expected to fall 4% and the country is seen increasing the diversion of sugarcane from sugar to ethanol production.
Updated
05/02/23
KC
– July $7.00-8.25
MN
– July
$7.00-8.50
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Evecom-FI050223.pdf