PDF Attached
Another
impressive upside run in CBOT agriculture markets, with exception of oats declining on the day. When will this market peak? We think it still has some upside early next week up through the USDA May 12 S&D report, at least. Statistics Canada released March
31 stocks and the data was a little friendly.
Private
exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture the follow activity:
Export
sales of 1,360,000 metric tons of corn
for delivery to China during the 2021/2022 marketing year; and
Export
sales of 188,468 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destination. Of the total, 86,868 metric tons is for delivery during the 2020/2021 marketing year and 101,600 metric tons is for delivery during the 2021/2022 marketing year.
Next
7 days
World
Weather, Inc.
WEATHER
TO WATCH THIS WEEKEND
-
Rain
and snow will develop in northwestern U.S. Plains and western Canada’s Prairies -
Significant
moisture will impact central and southwestern Alberta with light to locally moderate precipitation from southern Alberta and far southwestern Saskatchewan into central and western South Dakota, including the southwest one-third to one half of North Dakota
and Montana -
Moisture
totals of 0.20 to 0.80 inch with local totals to 1.25 inches is expected except in west-central and southwestern Alberta where some 1.00 to 2.00-inch amounts of moisture is possible -
Some
significant snow will accumulate, but only briefly -
The
moisture will be extremely welcome and helpful to spring planting, seed germination and plant establishment as warming evolves
-
The
remainder of Saskatchewan, Manitoba, the northeast half of North Dakota, Minnesota, northern Iowa, Wisconsin and parts of Michigan will be dry for the next week to 8 or 9 days -
Totally
dry weather is not likely, but resulting precipitation will not be very great -
Improved
rain chances in these areas should begin late in the second weekend of the two week outlook
-
Temperatures
will be cool in these areas for much of the coming five days with some warming late next week and into the following weekend -
Frequent
frost and freezes are expected with Tuesday morning of next week coldest in the northern Midwest
-
West
and South Texas rain potentials may improve as time moves along during the next week to ten days -
The
GFS model is too wet, but the trend toward more instability in the atmosphere is good and “some” moisture intrusion from eastern Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico is possible as time moves along -
No
general soaking, but at least some potential for more frequent showers and thunderstorms especially in South Texas and the Texas Coastal Bend -
West
Texas rainfall will be sporadic and too light for serious change in soil moisture through mid-week next week, but there may be a few greater thunderstorms in the following weekend – confidence is low, though -
Lower
U.S. Midwest, Delta and Tennessee River Basin may be a little too wet for ideal field working conditions and more sunshine and warming would be welcome -
A
better mix of rain and sun will impact the U.S. southeastern states over the next two weeks -
Drought
remains a concern for the western United States -
Soil
moisture is already restricted in unirrigated areas of the Pacific Northwest where some winter crop production is threatened -
Water
supply for irrigation remains good, though -
Mexico
drought remains quite serious, but there is some rain and thunderstorms advertised for eastern parts of the nation during the next two weeks -
The
precipitation will begin erratically and then increase over time -
Brazil’s
Safrinha crops will continue to dry down over the next two weeks -
The
pattern is normal for this time of year, but what is not normal was the early demise of soil moisture in April that has left late planted crops without sufficient moisture to support good yields – production cuts are inevitable
-
A
few showers are suggested for late next week and the following weekend in the interior south including some southern Safrinha crop areas, but the precipitation will be too brief and light to counter evaporation -
Temperatures
will be warm enough to add more stress during the coming week with highs in the 80s and lower 90s in southern Safrinha corn areas and more in the lower the middle 90s in the north -
Some
cooling is expected in the second week, but the change will be slight -
Argentina
weather will be favorably mixed over the next two weeks with brief bouts of precipitation and more significant periods of dry weather -
Crop
maturation and harvest progress should advance well -
Europe
will receive waves of rain for the next ten days bolstering soil moisture for many areas including France and the U.K. which have been driest -
Temperatures
will be near to below average for a while -
Temperatures
will trend warmer in eastern Europe next week -
Some
heavy rain is possible in southeastern France, parts of southern Germany and the Alps during the next couple of days -
Several
waves of rain will impact western Russia, Belarus, the Baltic States and in a few areas of northern Ukraine during the coming week maintaining wet field conditions
-
Farming
activity will remain restricted in these areas with rising concern over delayed spring planting in Russia -
Less
frequent and less significant rain is expected late next week through May 20, although it will not be completely dry -
Good
field progress will occur farther to the south where much less precipitation is expected and temperatures will be more seasonable; including southern and central Ukraine and Russia’s Southern Region -
Temperatures
will be cooler than usual in the wetter areas of the northwest this week and then a little more seasonable May 14-20 -
Eastern
Russia New Lands will experience a dry and warm bias through the next ten days -
The
environment will eventually be great for spring planting -
North
China Plain weather will be limited on precipitation for the next week and temperatures will be warming -
A
steady decline in soil moisture is expected with temperatures trending warmer
-
A
rising need for rain is expected later this month -
Excellent
planting progress is anticipated for a while until dryness becomes more of an issue -
Northeastern
China will experience frequent rain and mild to cool weather over the next week resulting in farming delays, but soil moisture will be bolstered for use later this spring -
Warming
and less rain is expected in the following week, May 14-20 -
Southern
China rain will fall abundantly and frequently over the next couple of weeks limiting some farming activity and keeping the region saturated or nearly saturated -
Some
local flooding will be possible at times -
Australia
precipitation over the next two weeks will be sporadic and mostly light. -
The
moisture will support some early season wheat, barley and canola planting, but follow up moisture will be needed -
A
few sporadic showers may occur in other areas, but resulting rainfall will not likely be very great except in the Great Dividing Range of the east
-
Temperatures
will be near to above average -
South
Africa will receive some late season showers again today and Saturday -
Next
week will trend drier once again -
Most
of the showers will not be significant rain producers -
The
environment will be good for harvesting and late season crop maturation -
Production
this year has been very good for nearly all crops -
Winter
wheat and barley planting should benefit from the moisture, although rain will soon be needed in the west -
India
weather will remain good for winter crop maturation and harvest progress, although showers will continue periodically in some areas -
Portions
of far southern India will be wetter than usual over the next couple of weeks and rain will also fall frequently from Bangladesh into the far Eastern States -
Delays
to harvest progress will be greatest in the south -
Showers
in northern India will not be great enough to be much of a factor to crop maturation or harvesting -
No
tropical cyclones are present in the world today -
Southern
Oscillation Index is mostly neutral at +2.60 and the index is expected to move a little higher over the next few days -
Xinjiang
China’s cotton areas experienced seasonable temperatures and dry conditions Thursday with mostly warm weather expected through the weekend -
Cooling
is expected next week with a few showers likely in the northeast -
Crop
development and additional planting are occurring favorably -
North
Africa rainfall will receive erratic rainfall over the next two weeks with net drying expected -
Temperatures
are trending warmer than usual -
West-central
Africa will see a mix of rain and sunshine during the next ten days -
Crop
conditions will stay good -
East-central
Africa rainfall has been erratic in recent weeks and a boost in rainfall is coming to Kenya, Ethiopia and northern Tanzania during the coming week -
Southeast
Asia rainfall will be favorably distributed in Indonesia, Malaysia and most of the mainland areas during the next two weeks -
Greater
rain is needed in the northern and western Philippines and in southern parts of central Vietnam and other mainland crop areas -
Sulawesi
also needs a boost in rainfall -
New
Zealand precipitation for the next two weeks will be increasing across North Island while staying wet in western portions of South Island
-
Temperatures
will trend cooler with the increasing rainfall
Source:
World Weather, Inc.
Friday,
May 7:
- China
customs publishes trade data, including imports of soy, edible oils, meat and rubber - ICE
Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London) - CFTC
commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm - CNGOIC
monthly report on Chinese grains & oilseeds - Canada’s
StatsCan to issue wheat, canola, barley and durum stockpile data - FranceAgriMer
weekly update on crop conditions
Monday,
May 10:
- Malaysian
Palm Oil Board data on April stockpiles, output, exports, 12:30pm local - Malaysia
May 1-10 palm oil export data - EU
weekly grain, oilseed import and export data - Ivory
Coast cocoa arrivals - USDA
export inspections – corn, soy and wheat, 11am - U.S.
crop plantings – corn, wheat, cotton; winter wheat condition, 4pm - HOLIDAY:
Russia
Tuesday,
May 11:
- Agrana
full-year earnings - France
agriculture ministry monthly crops outlook
Wednesday,
May 12:
- China
farm ministry’s CASDE outlook report - FranceAgriMer
monthly grains report - USDA’s
monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) report, 12pm - EIA
weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production - Conab’s
data on yield, area and output of corn and soybeans in Brazil - Brazil’s
Unica data on cane crush and sugar output (tentative)
Thursday,
May 13:
- New
Zealand April food prices, 10:45am local - Port
of Rouen data on French grain exports - USDA
net-export sales for corn, soy, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am - HOLIDAY:
Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, India, Dubai, France, Germany
Friday,
May 14:
- ICE
Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 6:30pm London - FranceAgriMer
weekly update on crop conditions - CFTC
commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm - HOLIDAY:
Indonesia, Malaysia, Dubai
Source:
Bloomberg and FI
StatsCan
released March 31 stocks
and some of the main commodity inventories fell slightly below expectations.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3210000701
No
records as of Tuesday and it looks like there is room for more longs to enter the market by the investment funds. We are pleased the net positions came in near expectations as over the past two weeks the estimated fund position for corn was well from what
was reported by CFTC. Estimates were less long in corn and soybean oil, but that can be overlooked after three solid days of higher prices. Current position estimates below.
SUPPLEMENTAL
Non-Comm Indexes Comm
Net Chg Net Chg Net Chg
Corn
354,564 18,933 415,765 1,934 -747,827 -14,166
Soybeans
126,299 -7,612 186,986 3,932 -311,142 9,127
Soyoil
49,670 -7,637 124,621 3,826 -193,385 3,642
CBOT
wheat -19,723 -1,214 159,157 -1,174 -130,895 425
KCBT
wheat 14,929 1,401 68,750 85 -81,668 -517
=================================================================================
FUTURES
+ OPTS Managed Swaps Producer
Net Chg Net Chg Net Chg
Corn
372,548 -6,115 239,526 -247 -722,640 -12,043
Soybeans
174,799 -5,215 82,482 11,336 -283,920 -296
Soymeal
54,150 63 77,788 3,131 -187,651 899
Soyoil
87,505 -5,082 106,969 1,212 -211,095 7,736
CBOT
wheat 10,723 -2,675 79,382 -1,442 -103,412 2,516
KCBT
wheat 34,000 3,961 43,111 -2,293 -75,020 -300
MGEX
wheat 15,906 1,826 3,871 391 -30,864 -2,429
———- ———- ———- ———- ———- ———-
Total
wheat 60,629 3,112 126,364 -3,344 -209,296 -213
Live
cattle 48,865 -6,031 86,685 1,142 -151,608 6,389
Feeder
cattle -913 -1,592 6,808 -955 -1,072 1,502
Lean
hogs 71,577 460 60,900 1,764 -140,802 -4,349
Other NonReport Open
Net Chg Net Chg Interest Chg
Corn
133,068 25,105 -22,502 -6,699 2,438,342 39,113
Soybeans
28,783 -377 -2,145 -5,448 1,139,988 -27,115
Soymeal
26,589 165 29,125 -4,258 457,234 -2,061
Soyoil
-2,472 -4,035 19,094 169 585,496 13,306
CBOT
wheat 21,847 -362 -8,540 1,963 544,240 -4,126
KCBT
wheat -78 -399 -2,013 -969 241,762 4,547
MGEX
wheat 2,900 -402 8,187 613 82,141 -2,346
———- ———- ———- ———- ———- ———-
Total
wheat 24,669 -1,163 -2,366 1,607 868,143 -1,925
Live
cattle 23,800 -763 -7,741 -737 375,020 -2,075
Feeder
cattle 3,822 -111 -8,646 1,156 55,296 -258
Lean
hogs 14,130 285 -5,804 1,841 358,691 15,043
Macro
US
Change In Nonfarm Payrolls Apr: 266K (est 1000K; prevR 770K; prev 916K)
US
Unemployment Rate Apr: 6.1% (est 5.8%; prev 6.0%)
US
Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) Apr: 0.7% (est 0.0%; prevR -0.1%; prev -0.1%)
US
Average Hourly Earnings (Y/Y) Apr: 0.3% (est -0.4%; prev 4.2%)
US
Change In Private Payrolls Apr: 218K (est 933K; prevR 708K; prev 780K)
US
Change In Manufacturing Payrolls Apr: -18K (est 54K; prevR 54K; prev 53K)
US
Average Weekly Hours All Employees Apr: 35.0 (est 34.9; prev 34.9)
US
Labour Force Participation Rate Apr: 61.7% (est 61.6%; prev 61.5%)
US
Underemployment Rate Apr: 10.4% (prev 10.7%)
Canadian
Net Change In Employment Apr: -207.1K (est -150.0K; prev 303.1K)
Canadian
Unemployment Rate Apr: 8.1% (est 8.0%; prev 7.5%)
Canadian
Participation Rate Apr: 64.9% (est 65.2%; prev 65.2%)
Canadian
Part Time Employment Change Apr: -77.8K (prev 127.8K)
Canadian
Full Time Employment Change Apr: -129.4K (prev 175.4K)
Canadian
Hourly Wage Rate Permanent Employees (Y/Y) Apr: -1.6% (est -1.1%; prev 2.0%)
- A
sharply lower USD, China new-crop corn buying, and ongoing bullish sentiment including rising inflation lifted corn futures higher. The USD was down 66 points by 1 pm CT.
The
US jobs report came in well below expectations. Strong US cash prices and good meat imports by China for the month of April added to the positive undertone. China imported 922,000 tons of meat during April, up nearly 7 percent from year ago and slightly below
the record 1.02 million tons during March. USDA is due out on Wednesday.
- CBOT
July corn settled up 13.50 cents at $7.3225/bu, at an 8-1/2 year high. July was up 8.8% this week. - December
was up 11 cents to $6.3625. - Call
option volume was very good with a lot of players rolling up call positions.
- Dips
today in corn were welcomed by long traders looking to add onto their positions.
- China
kicked off buying new-crop US corn by committing to 1.360 million tons for 2021-22 delivery as announced under the 24-hour system. Prior to this, 2021-22 US corn commitments have been mostly for unknown and Mexico destinations. As of April 29, new crop corn
commitments were running at nearly 3 million tons, just above this time year ago.
- China
National Grain & Oils Information Center (CNGOIC) estimated 2020 China corn production up 4.3% to 272 million tons and soybean production at 18.4 million tons, a 6.1% decrease from 2020.
- FranceAgriMer
reported conditions of the French winter barley edged down to 76% from 77%, and corn plantings were 89% of the expected area, up from 74% the previous week and 76% a year ago. - Buenos
Aires Grains Exchange – Argentina corn collected +3 points to 23%.
April
2021 Agricultural Options Update
Export
developments.
- Under
the 24-hour announcement system, private exporters reported 1,360,000 tons of corn for delivery to China during the 2021-22 marketing year, 188,468 tons of corn for delivery to unknown destination (86,868 tons 2020-21 and 101,600 tons for 2021-22).
New
crop corn commitment season is starting to ramp up. (as of late April)
US
2021-22 corn commitments for China, including 1.360 million tons sold this morning
2021
China + Unknown Corn Sales
Updated
5/7/21
July
is seen in a $6.00 and $7.75 range
December
corn is seen in a $4.75-$7.00 range. (up 75, up 50)
The
US needs to see a massive crop to pull new-crop futures below $4.00, which could happen for 2022 contracts if the export campaign for Q1 (SON) does not end up a record . Keep an eye on new-crop corn commitments this summer.
- The
CBOT soybean complex traded higher again with demand and stocks in focus. US crush margins are good enough to keep demand for soybeans at a strong level. StatsCan reported March 31 Canadian canola stocks down 38 percent from the same period a year ago.
Additional details over China April import data were viewed bullish. China imported 922,000 tons of meat during April, up nearly 7 percent from year ago and slightly below the record 1.02 million tons during March. China soybean imports were 7.45 million
tons during April, up 11 percent year ago, with most originating from Brazil. Jan-Apr China soybean imports were 28.63 million tons, up 17% from same period during 2020.
- CBOT
July soybeans were up 20.50 cents at $15.8975, a price not seen since October 2012. For the week July increased 3.6%. November soybeans climbed 24.50 cents to $14.3350 (hit a contract high today). July soybean meal surged $14.50/short ton. That market has
been overshadowed by the rise in soybean oil and it was only a matter of time to see it pop. July meal remarkably ended the week 3.7% higher while July soybean oil was up 3.3%.
- $16.50
soybeans is not out of reach. - In
a Reuters poll, US 2021-22 soybean ending stocks were seen at 138 million bushels, and 2020-21 stocks at 117 million bushels from 120 million last month.
- Brazilian
soybean export premiums slid this week with the rally in Chicago and stronger real against the USD.
- Malaysian
palm oil futures closed at a 13-year high, up 212 MRY and cash was up 4.2% or 45.00$/ton to $1,112.50. For the week palm futures are up 14.4%. There is still concern India vegetable oil imports will decline sharply during the May through June period because
of Covid-19 concerns. Daily cases continue to climb and three times this week topped 400,000. But remember that number represents people with access to tests.
- July
ICE canola futures rose its daily limit yesterday and today it was nearly 45 higher. It was last at $1,005.90, above the $1,000 mark for the first time. Canadian canola stocks were reported slightly below expectations and we would not be surprised stocks
at the end of the season reach near a decade low. Attached is our balance sheet. March 31 stocks were 6.6 million tons vs. a trade average of 6.7 million tons, and down from 10.6 million a year earlier. - ICE
raised their canola futures initial margin for July to 1,120 CAD. - Meanwhile
we are hearing the EU rapeseed crop may fall short of expectations. We will know more as harvest advances.
- China
cash crush margins on our analysis were 214 cents (215 previous) vs. 178 cents late last week and compares to 132 cents year earlier.
- Buenos
Aires Grains Exchange – Argentina soybeans collected +20 points to 53%. - Ciara
– Argentina to crush 40.5 MMT of soybeans this year, up from 36 MMT last year. That leaves about 10 percent left for export.
ICE
July Canola Futures
- None
reported
MPOB
SND poll April – Reuters Poll
April
stocks seen down 0.27% m/m at 1.44 mln T
Output
seen up 8.9% at 1.55 mln T – survey
Exports
seen up 10% at 1.3 mln T – survey
Updated
4/26/21
July
soybeans are seen in a $14.75-$16.50; November $12.75-$15.00
Soybean
meal – July $400-$460; December $380-$460
Soybean
oil – July 56-70; December 48-60 cent range
- Higher
trade in US wheat futures despite Thailand passing on wheat and barley. A sharply lower USD underpinned prices along with crop concerns for the dry areas of the Great Plains (HRW wheat) and northern spring growing areas. Decline in French wheat ratings was
also bullish. Selected Black Sea and European cash wheat prices appreciated this week.
- CBOT
July wheat finished at $7.6175, up 8.50 cents and for the week was up 3.7%. July KC was up 10.00 cents and for the week up 4.7%. MN July was up 7.00 cents and up 4.4% for the week.
- A
Reuters poll looks for the 2021-22 US all-wheat carryout to end up near 730 million bushels and 2020-21 stocks at 846 million bushels from 852 million in April.
- FranceAgriMer
reported a 2-point decline in French soft wheat conditions to 79% for the week ending May 3. - IKAR
lowered their 2021 Russian wheat production forecast to 79 million tons from 79.5 million tons.
- September
milling wheat settled up 1.75 euros, or 0.8%, at 232.00 euros ($281.97) a ton. The contract rose 5.8% this week.
Export
Developments.
- Thailand
passed on 455,000 tons of animal feed wheat and 420,000 tons of feed barley for shipment between June and December. The barley was to be sourced from Australia only for shipments between June and December. - Taiwan
Flour Millers’ Association seeks 89,425 tons US milling wheat on May 13. One consignment of 42,505 tons is sought for shipment between July 2 and July 16. A second consignment of 46,920 tons is sought for shipment between July 19 and Aug. 2.
Rice/Other
·
South Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp seeks 134,994 tons of rice from Vietnam, China, the United States and Australia, on May 13, for arrival between September 2021 and January 2022.
Updated
5/07/21
July
Chicago wheat is seen in a $6.75-$8.00 range
July
KC wheat is seen in a $6.60-$7.50
July
MN wheat is seen in a $7.50-$8.25
(up 35, up 25)
Terry Reilly
Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds
Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.
Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181
W: 312.604.1366
ICE IM:
treilly1
Skype: fi.treilly
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Evecom-FI050721.pdf