FI Evening Grain Comments 05/30/22 + calls

PDF Attached

 

Calls:

• Soybeans
  6-11 lower
• Soybean
  oil 15-25 points lower
• Soybean
  meal $0.50-1.00 lower
• Corn
  3-6 lower
• Chicago
  wheat 4-8 lower
• KC
  wheat 5-10 lower
• MN
  wheat 1-4 lower (two sided)

 

·        
The weather forecast on Monday improved for the US Midwest, South America and Europe. Showers this week is wetter bias southern Midwest and may cause some disruptions to planting progress. Other
areas of the Midwest will see light showers benefiting germination / early growth.  USDA NASS is expected to report a good advancement to US plantings when updated Tuesday.

·        
ICE canola futures were down $1.60 at $1,186.20 per ton. Euronext rapeseed was down 12.25 euros to 816 or 1.5%.

·        
Offshore values are suggesting a higher lead for soybean meal and soybean oil. Palm oil did trade lower Monday by 121 points or 1.9%. China futures were mixed with soybeans up 0.2%, meal up 0.4%,
soybean oil up slightly and palm down 1.2%. Rotterdam vegetable oils were mixed and Rotterdam meal up 2.00 to 6.50 euros.

·        
The Indonesian government resumed palm oil export permits to exporters. Up to 1.0 million tons will be allowed for export over an unspecified period.

·        
Ukraine crop year to date sunflower oil exports are 3.53 million tons, 20 percent below the same period year ago of Sep-May, according to AgriCensus.

·        
Coceral look for 2022 EU rapeseed production to end up near 18.4 million tons from 17.7 million previous, a 4 percent increase over the previous year. Sunflower seed production was seen at 10.7 million
tons, a 700,000 ton increase from previous and up 6.9% from last year.

·        
Meanwhile, Strategie Grains looks for EU sunflower production to reach 10.9 million tons, up 200,000 tons estimated last month and about 5 percent above their 2021 forecast.

·        
September EU wheat futures were down 8 euros per ton from improving weather. France will see showers this week. 

·        
Coceral increased its EU soft wheat production estimate to 127.4 million tons from 126.8 million in March.

·        
Algeria seeks optional origin wheat on Tuesday for July/August shipment. Algeria looks for wheat production to end up between 3.0-3.2 million tons. They also said they have enough wheat stocks to
last over the next 10 months, and they have imported 3.0 million tons of wheat so far this year.

·        
Pakistan’s TCP bought 500,000 tons of milling wheat for June-July shipment at $515.49/ton, C&F. Over the weekend Pakistan’s government agreed to buy 2.0 million tons of Russian wheat in a government
to government transaction. This comes after Russia wheat shipments have slowed as export quotas are exhausting. The quota terminates at the end of June.  Russia did export 329,000 tons of wheat last week, up nearly 8%.

·        
Russia said again they are ready to facilitate more grain export from Ukraine’s ports and will coordinate with Turkey.

·        
Ukraine May grain exports reached 1.06 million tons, down from 2.8 million during May 2021.

·        
Bangladesh is getting offers for their 50,000 ton wheat import tender. Lowest was $464.55/ton.

·        
A 55,600 ton Indian wheat cargo was rejected by Turkey back earlier this month due to kernel bunt.

·        
India was asked to supply more than 1.5 million tons of wheat from several countries in effort to ease global grain shortages.

·        
China and EU corn futures traded slightly lower on Monday.

·        
Jordan’s wheat reserves are sufficient for 13 months. 

·        
Brazil second corn crop harvest pace is off to a good start with IMEA reporting 2.4 percent of the crop collected across Mato Grosso.

·        
The Philippines approved a cut to their corn import tariff from 35 percent to 5 within the countries current quota and from 50% to 15 for volumes outside the quota.

·        
Vietnam January through May rice exports were 2.86 million tons, up 10.3 percent from same period year ago.

 

 

 

 

Weather

1-day
precip

 

Past
7 days

 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Tuesday,
May 31:

• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am

• U.S.
  crop planting data for corn, soybeans, spring wheat and cotton; winter wheat harvesting; cotton, corn winter wheat condition, 4pm
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Malaysia’s
  May palm oil export data
• U.S.
  agricultural prices paid, received
• EARNINGS:
  FGV

Wednesday,
June 1:

• USDA
  soybean crush, DDGS production, corn for ethanol, 3pm
• Global
  Food Forum 2022 in Melbourne
• Australia
  Commodity Index
• HOLIDAY:
  Indonesia, Korea

Thursday,
June 2:

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• HOLIDAY:
  Italy, UK

Friday,
June 3:

• FAO
  World Food Price Index
• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• HOLIDAY:
  China, Hong Kong, Thailand, UK

Source:
Bloomberg and FI