FI Evening Grain Comments 05/31/22

PDF Attached

 

CALLS:

Soybeans
steady

Soybean
meal steady to lower

Soybean
oil steady to higher

Corn
steady to lower

Chicago
and KC steady to 4 lower

MN
spring wheat advancement was good.  6-8 lower

 

USDA
crop conditions were as expected for winter wheat conditions while US spring wheat seedings advanced more than expected (6 points above the trade average). US corn plantings were up 14 points to 86 percent, just below its 5-year average. US soybean plantings
were up 16 points to 66 percent, also slightly below average.

 

WTI
crude oil was up sharply earlier but pair most of its gains by the time CBOT agriculture markets closed.  Same thing happened to the USD. US agriculture futures fell sharply led by the wheat markets on end of month positioning, improving
US weather and expectations Ukraine exports could soon resume. After grains made several legs lower, poor export inspections kicked off selling in soybeans. Traders are disappointed USDA 24-hour sales have been quiet.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weather

 

World
Weather Inc.

WEATHER
EVENTS AND FEATURES TO WATCH

• Short
  term  drying in eastern Canada’s Prairies after this morning
• Drying
  will continue in the southwestern Canada Prairies until “possibly” next week
• Tropical
  cyclone possible near Yucatan Peninsula may impact Florida this weekend
• Good
  mix of weather for U.S. Midwest
• West
  Texas crop areas may get waves of rain Tuesday night into Friday night
• SE
  Canada (Ontario and Quebec) will trend wetter
• U.S.
  Midwest to see alternating periods of rain and sunshine
• Mexico
  to turn wetter
• Europe
  rainfall to increase this weekend into next week, but mostly in the central and north
• France
  received some dryness relief late last week and more likely this weekend
• CIS
  plenty wet
• China
  too wet in the south and more flooding likely
• North
  China Plain too dry and will stay that way until the weekend; then partial relief next week
• Western
  Argentina wheat areas still too dry
• Southern
  Brazil, southern Paraguay becoming too wet
• Argentina
  and far southern Brazil will be cold this week
• No
  weather threat to coffee, citrus or sugarcane in Brazil this week

 

 

WORLD
WEATHER DETAILS

• Canada’s
  eastern Prairies received rain during the weekend once again with moisture totals of 0.72 to 2.40 inches in eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba
• Several
  areas in southern Manitoba reported up to 3.35 inches
• Manitoba
  is too wet once again and fieldwork will be on hold for a while
• A
  full week of dry weather is expected in the majority of the Prairies after today with a few exceptions
  
• Rain
  will fall in the Interlake region of Manitoba Wednesday into Thursday
• Showers
  will occur periodically along the front range of mountains in Alberta during the coming week
• Some
  rain will fall near the U.S. border Sunday and Monday
• All
  other areas will be dry or mostly dry through the first part of next week
• The
  dry bias will briefly improve field conditions in eastern parts of the Prairies for spring planting after frequent precipitation in recent weeks stalled field progress. Planting progress will be well behind the norm and dry weather must occur now to support
  planting before insurance cutoff dates arrive in mid-June.
• Fieldwork
  could begin late this week and advance into early next week, but confidence in persistent dry weather is low
• Dryness
  remains a serious concern for the southwestern Canada’s Prairies; including east-central and southern Alberta and west-central and southwestern Saskatchewan where recent rainfall was restricted and temperatures were warming up
• These
  areas will see little to no rain for the next week to ten days raising crop moisture stress to a new height especially with temperatures rising into the 70s and lower 80s Fahrenheit frequently during the forecast period
• Some
  forecast models are offering a few showers this weekend and more later next week, but confidence is low for now
• A
  tropical cyclone is predicted to evolve near the Yucatan Peninsula during the second half of this week before moving east northeast across southern Florida during the coming weekend
  
• The
  storm will produce a band of heavy rain and strong wind speeds possibly inducing a little damage to Florida central west coastal properties and some citrus areas
• The
  storm has not formed yet and predicting its intensity with confidence is a little difficult today, but a tropical storm is quite likely with some potential for a weak hurricane to evolve especially after moving across Florida as it moves northeast out into
  the Atlantic Ocean
• Very
  little impact is expected on citrus unless then storm proves to be more intense than advertised
• U.S.
  southeastern states will experience lighter than usual precipitation over the next two weeks, but at least some rain will fall to support crop needs
• Completely
  dry weather is not expected, but precipitation may be a little lighter and more sporadic than usual this week and early next week
  
• Some
  net drying should be expected
• U.S.
  Midwest will receive waves of rain through the next ten days slowing fieldwork at times, but progress will be made between events.
  
• Weekend
  precipitation was limited enough to support some planting progress in quite a few areas, but not in the upper Midwest where it was wettest
• U.S.
  Midwest weekend rain was greatest from eastern South Dakota and parts of Nebraska through northwestern Iowa to Minnesota
  
• Amounts
  of 0.40 to 1.85 inches resulted and local totals over 3.00 inches in northeastern and central Minnesota
• U.S.
  central and southern Plains weekend weather was generally dry and warm with highest temperatures in the 90s to 104 degrees Fahrenheit
  
• Some
  areas were cooler Monday afternoon than either Saturday or Sunday
• Strong
  wind speeds were noted throughout the region Monday afternoon
• West
  Texas cotton areas will receive rain nightly from Tuesday night into Friday night this week offering some improved topsoil moisture for better planting and early development
• Rainfall
  will vary from 0.75 to 2.00 inches in the Panhandle and northern counties of West Texas proper and 0.20 to 0.60 inch in the south with a few totals over 1.00 inch
• Relief
  to dryness is expected and improved planting conditions will result
• U.S.
  mid-south and southeastern states were largely dry during the weekend with seasonably warm temperatures
• Highest
  readings were in the 80s and lower 90s Fahrenheit
• Rain
  was limited to Virginia, North Carolina and coastal areas of South Carolina
• Florida
  reported rain in the northeast and far south, but dry in central areas
• South
  America’s greatest weekend rain occurred from southern Paraguay and far southern Mato Grosso do Sul into Parana, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul
• Amounts
  varied from 0.40 to nearly 2.00 inches with a few areas in Misiones, Argentina reporting 3.00 to more than 5.00 inches resulting in some local flooding
  
• Late
  season crops should not have been seriously impacted by the wet weather
• Winter
  wheat likely benefited from the moisture
• Most
  of other Safrinha corn and cotton areas along with most sugarcane, citrus and coffee areas were dry and not threatened by any extreme temperatures.
• Most
  of Argentina was dry leaving most western grain areas in need of moisture – more so for the winter crops rather than summer crops
• Cold
  air in Argentina this week should stay in Argentina with a little advancement into southern Brazil
• No
  threatening cold is seen for Safrinha crops in southern Brazil
• The
  cold in Argentina will induce some waves of rain in southern Brazil keeping the interior south wetter than usual.
  
• Mato
  Grosso and Goias Safrinha crop areas are expected to remain mostly dry, although there will be some risk of showers next week
• The
  resulting rainfall will not be great enough to change Safrinha crop development potentials
• Rio
  Grande do Sul to Parana and Paraguay, Brazil precipitation over the next ten days will vary from 2.00 to more than 6.00 inches possibly raising some potential for flooding after previous rain has the ground saturated
• Argentina’s
  dry areas will not get much precipitation over the next ten days leaving a growing need for moisture in wheat planting areas from La Pampa to Santiago del Estero.
  
• Western
  central Europe weather was dry Friday through Monday and temperatures were seasonable except in the Mediterranean Sea region where readings were warmer than usual reaching into the 80s and lower 90s Fahrenheit.
  
• Europe
  will be drier biased through Friday and then showers and thunderstorms will begin to evolve and continue through much of next week – favoring the central and north
• The
  precipitation will be most favorable for spring, winter and summer crops that have been drying out for an extended period of time.
  
• Soil
  moisture is mostly rated favorably except from central through southern France and from Spain and Portugal through Italy to the Baltic Countries
• Some
  of the areas needing rain most may have to wait a while before that happens since precipitation will favor the central and north parts of the continent and not the south
• Europe
  temperatures over the next two weeks will be near to above normal in the south and closer to normal in the north, although for several days this week the north will be warmer- biased as well.
• CIS
  soil moisture is still rated adequate to excessive with the wettest areas from the Russia New Lands
• Portions
  of southern and central Ukraine have marginally adequate soil moisture
• North-central
  and northeastern Kazakhstan is driest, but most key crop areas still have favorable soil moisture
• CIS
  weather will continue to generate alternating waves of rain and sunshine over the next two weeks favoring winter crop development and early spring crop development
  
• Some
  of the wetter areas in the eastern New Lands may need a little break from the rain soon to support better spring planting and early crop development, but most of the region is suspected of being in good shape for crop development
• Drying
  in China’s North China Plain continued during the weekend leaving unirrigated crops with very short topsoil moisture and marginally adequate to very short subsoil moisture
• Another
  five days of dry weather is expected before there is at least some opportunity for rain to evolve
• The
  moisture will be welcome, but follow up precipitation will be very important since this initial rainfall is expected to be light
• Weekend
  temperatures were in the 90s to near 100 Fahrenheit which exacerbated the drying and stress for young summer crops         
  
• Unirrigated
  winter wheat may have been stressed by heat and dryness, although the crop should be filling and maturing making the drier bias of little concern
  
• Heavy
  rain fell in portions of southern China Friday through Monday with many areas south of the Yangtze River reporting 8.00 to 9.50 inches of rain
• One
  location in eastern Guangxi reported 18.78 inches of rain since Friday morning
• Some
  flooding resulted especially since previous rainfall already had the region much too wet
• Most
  areas south of the Yangtze River are considered too dry; including rice, sugarcane and minor corn production areas
• Daily
  rainfall will continue in southern China near and especially south of the Yangtze River where flooding will continue periodically into the first half of June
• Northeast
  China is plenty wet and would benefit from less rain, but that is not likely to occur for a while
• Liaoning,
  Hebei and parts of Jilin will be wettest this weekend and early next week
• Some
  net drying is possible through Friday
• China’s
  temperatures will be seasonable this week except in the dry areas of the North China Plain where readings will continue warmer than usual
• Xinjiang,
  China weather will include some showers in the northeast and across the mountainous areas, but no serious bolstering in soil moisture is expected
• Planting
  progress in corn and cotton areas will advance normally
• Water
  supply has been increasing with improved mountainous rainfall this spring, but reservoir levels may still be below normal.
  
• Southern
  India rainfall will be scattered this week from southern Maharashtra to Tamil Nadu and Kerala, but the greatest rain will fall in the far Eastern States
• Net
  drying is expected elsewhere
• Australia
  soil moisture is rated mostly well, but there will be need for rain in Western Australia in June especially in northern crop areas to restore favorable soil moisture
  
• South
  Australia also needs a moisture boost
• New
  South Wales and many areas in southeastern Queensland have favorable soil moisture for autumn planting and establishment of wheat, barley and canola
• Ontario
  and Quebec rainfall is expected to increase over the next two weeks bolstering soil moisture for long term crop use
• The
  wetter conditions will slow farming activity
• South
  Africa weather is expected to be mostly dry for a while
• Both
  the harvest of summer crops and the planting of winter grains will advance well in the drier weather this week
• Temperatures
  will be near to above normal this week
• All
  of Southeast Asia will get rain at one time or another over the next couple of weeks.
• The
  precipitation will be good for most crop needs; however, it will be heavy along the Myanmar lower coast and in parts of both Laos and Vietnam into Cambodia
• Northwestern
  Luzon Island, Philippines and Taiwan will also be wet
• Thailand
  may not be included in the heavier rainfall that other Southeast Asia nations will experience for a while, but scattered showers and thunderstorms are still expected
• West-central
  Africa rainfall during the next ten days will be favorable for coffee, cocoa, sugarcane, rice and cotton
  
• East-central
  Africa rainfall will be most significant in Ethiopia, southwestern Kenya and Uganda during the next ten days while Tanzania’s Pare region dries down seasonably
• North
  Africa rainfall will be limited in the next two weeks, although some rain is expected very lightly
• Most
  wheat and barley in the region is maturing and being harvested keeping the need for rain very low
• Most
  of the rain expected will be limited and should not adversely impact crop conditions or field progress
• Turkey
  crop areas will be the only ones in the Middle East to get significant rainfall during the next week to ten days
• A
  boost in rain is needed in many areas, but this is the beginning of the dry season
  
• These
  areas may have experience a decline in wheat, rice and cotton production this year – at least in unirrigated areas
• Mexico
  rainfall is expected to slowly increase in central and southern parts of the nation during the next ten days
• The
  moisture will be welcome and should be a part of the developing monsoon season
• A
  small tropical cyclone may form off the upper west coast of Central America and near the Mexico lower west coast today and Saturday
• The
  storm could bring heavy rain to a part of southern Mexico in Chiapas and especially Oaxaca as landfall takes place early next week
• Central
  America will see periodic rain in the coming ten days with some of it to become heavy this weekend and next week from Costa Rica into Panama.
  
• Today’s
  Southern Oscillation Index was +18.85 and it will steadily decline over the next few weeks
• New
  Zealand rainfall will be trending wetter over the next week
  

Source:
World Weather Inc.

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Tuesday,
May 31:

• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am

• U.S.
  crop planting data for corn, soybeans, spring wheat and cotton; winter wheat harvesting; cotton, corn winter wheat condition, 4pm
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Malaysia’s
  May palm oil export data
• U.S.
  agricultural prices paid, received
• EARNINGS:
  FGV

Wednesday,
June 1:

• USDA
  soybean crush, DDGS production, corn for ethanol, 3pm
• Global
  Food Forum 2022 in Melbourne
• Australia
  Commodity Index
• HOLIDAY:
  Indonesia, Korea

Thursday,
June 2:

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• HOLIDAY:
  Italy, UK

Friday,
June 3:

• FAO
  World Food Price Index
• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• HOLIDAY:
  China, Hong Kong, Thailand, UK

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

USDA
inspections versus Reuters trade range

Wheat                 
343,927                 versus   250000-500000  range

Corn                     
1,390,851             versus   1000000-1800000             range

Soybeans           
378,262                 versus   300000-800000  range

 

 

 

              
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT

  
               REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING MAY 26, 2022

                           
— METRIC TONS —

————————————————————————-

                                                  
CURRENT     PREVIOUS 

             ———–
WEEK ENDING ———-  MARKET YEAR  MARKET YEAR

 
GRAIN      05/26/2022  05/19/2022  05/27/2021    TO DATE     TO DATE  

 

BARLEY            
73           0           0       10,229       33,143 

CORN       
1,390,851   1,752,461   2,104,363   42,277,507   51,181,479 

FLAXSEED           
0           0           0          324          509 

MIXED              
0           0           0            0            0 

OATS               
0           0         499          600        7,013 

RYE                
0           0           0            0            0 

SORGHUM      
143,710     199,288     236,955    6,119,839    6,206,079 

SOYBEANS     
378,262     581,067     205,108   49,477,106   56,667,708 

SUNFLOWER          
0           0           0        2,260          240 

WHEAT        
343,927     275,541     317,278   19,994,985   25,329,215 

Total      
2,256,823   2,808,357   2,864,203  117,882,850  139,425,386 

————————————————————————-

CROP
MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND

FLAXSEED; 
SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.

INCLUDES
WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

 

Macros

101
Counterparties Take $1.979 Tln At Fed Reverse Repo Op (prev $2.007 Tln, 99 Bids)

US
House Purchase Price Index (Q/Q) Q1 4.6% (prev 3.3%; prevR 3.6%)

US
Oil Seen Averaging $97.82 In 2022 And $87.18 In 2023 (prev $96.21 And $85.04) – Reuters Poll

Canadian
GDP Annualized Q1: 3.1% (est 5.2%; prev 6.7%; prevR 6.6%)

Canadian
GDP (M/M) Mar: 0.7% (est 0.5%; prev 1.1%; prevR 0.9%)

–
Canadian GDP (Y/Y) Mar: 3.5% (est 3.7%; prev 4.5%)

POLL:
Canada House Prices Seen Rising 10.0% On Avg In 2022, Falling 2.2% In 2023 (Vs +9.2%, +1.5% In March Poll) – RTRS

EIA:
US Total Oil Demand In March Up 6.8% Or 1.308M Bpd Vs Last Year At 20.512M Bpd (Vs 17.2% Rise In Feb)

–
March Gasoline Demand Up 3.3% Or 279K Bpd Vs Last Year At 8.856M Bpd (Vs +11.0%)

EIA:
US Crude Output In March Rose To 11.7M Bpd, Highest Since November

 

Corn

·        
US corn futures
were lower throughout the day and ended off 15.25-23.75 cents on good US weather, slowing US export developments and Ukraine potentially resuming corn exports. Wheat prices had a good influence on corn. There is concern inflation is softening US red meat demand.
Funds sold an estimated net 24,000 corn contracts.

·        
WTI crude oil was up nearly $4.00 earlier this morning and USD up 43 points, but both of those markets gave up much of their gains by the time US ag markets closed. The European Union will impose a partial ban on Russian mineral
oil.

·        
There was a headline that OPEC could suspend Russia from OPEC+.

·        
USDA US corn export inspections as of May 26, 2022 were 1,390,851 tons, within a range of trade expectations, below 1,752,461 tons previous week and compares to 2,104,363 tons year ago. Major countries included China for 268,818
tons, Japan for 263,701 tons, and Mexico for 238,624 tons.

·        
USDA NASS reported US corn planting progress at 86 percent, 1 point above trade expectations, above 72 week earlier and compares to 94 percent year ago and 87 for the five-year average.

·        
There was not a corn rating. We were looking for 70 percent good/excellent for initial 2022 ratings, same as the 5-year average and down from 76 year ago.

·        
We lowered our US corn for ethanol use for the 2021-22 crop year by 35 million bushels to 5.340 billion, and compares to USDA’s estimate of 5.375 billion, and 5.033 billion for 2020-21.

·        
Mexico plans to buy 521,000 tons of corn to help ease rising inflation.

·        
China will buy 40,000 tons of frozen pork for reserves on June 2, tenth round of procurement.

·        
Brazil second corn crop harvest pace is off to a good start with IMEA reporting 2.4 percent of the crop collected across Mato Grosso.

·        
Brazil livestock producers have been buying corn from Paraguay.

·        
China will see heavy rain across the southern growing areas this week.

·        
The Philippines approved a cut to their corn import tariff from 35 percent to 5 within the countries current quota and from 50% to 15 for volumes outside the quota.

 

Export
developments.

·        
None reported

 

U
of I – Wet, Cold, & Gloomy: Comparing Early Spring 2022

Ford,
T. “Wet, Cold, & Gloomy: Comparing Early Spring 2022.” farmdoc daily (12):78,  Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, May 27, 2022.

https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2022/05/wet-cold-gloomy-comparing-early-spring-2022.html

 

 

 

Updated
5/31/22

July
corn is seen in a $7.25 and $8.25 range

December
corn is seen in a wide $5.50-$8.00 range

 

Soybeans

·        
The CBOT soybean complex ended sharply lower on end of month positioning, improving US weather and weakness in wheat. After grains made several legs lower, poor export inspections kicked off selling in soybeans. Traders are disappointed
USDA 24-hour sales have been quiet. There was chatter today China could have been in the market. China’s Shanghai is preparing to ease Covid restrictions.

·        
Funds sold an estimated net 15,000 soybean contracts, sold 8,000 meal and sold 4,000 soybean oil.

·        
EIA reported US soybean oil used for biodiesel for the month of March at 908 million pounds, 30 million below our expectations. We will likely lower our SBO for biodiesel use for the current crop year post USDA NASS crush report.

·        
USDA NASS reported US soybean planting progress at 66 percent, 1 point below trade expectations, above 50 week earlier and compares to 83 percent year ago and 67 for the five-year average.

·        
The Indonesian government resumed palm oil export permits to exporters. Up to 1.0 million tons will be allowed for export over an unspecified period.

·        
USDA US soybean export inspections as of May 26, 2022 were 378,262 tons, within a range of trade expectations, below 581,067 tons previous week and compares to 205,108 tons year ago. Major countries included China for 63,585 tons,
Egypt for 60,492 tons, and Mexico for 58,313 tons.

·        
Expect good US Midwest plantings this week.

·        
The European Commission reported July 2021 through May 29 soybean imports at 13.26 million tons, down from 13.85 million tons during the same period year ago.

·        
Ukraine crop year to date sunflower oil exports are 3.53 million tons, 20 percent below the same period year ago of Sep-May, according to AgriCensus.

·        
Coceral looks for 2022 EU rapeseed production to end up near 18.4 million tons from 17.7 million previous, a 4 percent increase over the previous year. Sunflower seed production was seen at 10.7 million tons, a 700,000-ton increase
from previous and up 6.9% from last year.

·        
Meanwhile, Strategie Grains looks for EU sunflower production to reach 10.9 million tons, up 200,000 tons estimated last month and about 5 percent above their 2021 forecast.

·        
Indonesia set the June crude palm oil reference export prices at $1,700.12 per ton, up from $1,657.39/ton for May.

·        
Malaysia palm oil exports during May were 1.362 million tons, according to AmSpec, up from 1.113 million tons month earlier, a 22.4 percent increase. ITS reported a 24.6 percent increase to 1.416 million tons.

 

Export
Developments

·        
China plans to sell 500,000 tons of soybeans from reserves on June 1.

·        
The USDA seeks 5,710 tons of packaged veg oil for use in export programs for shipping July 1-25 on June 1, with notice following day.

 

 

 

Updated
5/24/22

Soybeans
– July $15.75-$18.00

Soybeans
– November is seen in a wide $12.75-$16.50 range

Soybean
meal – July $375-$465

Soybean
oil – July 77-84

 

Wheat

·        
Wheat futures plunged on heavy fund selling on improving US weather and expectations Ukraine wheat exports will resume this summer. Funds sold an estimated net 21,000 Chicago wheat contracts.

·        
Russia said again they are ready to facilitate more grain export from Ukraine’s ports and will coordinate with Turkey.

·        
Egypt seeks wheat on Wednesday. They last bought wheat April 13. Lowest offer was $460/ton.

·        
September EU wheat futures were down 15.50 euros per ton from improving weather. France will see showers this week.

·        
US winter wheat harvest was not reported.

·        
USDA NASS reported US spring planting progress at 73 percent, 6 points above trade expectations, above 49 week earlier and compares to 97 percent year ago and 92 for the five-year average.

·        
US winter wheat crop conditions increased one point to 29 percent G/E, at trade expectations. This was the lowest rating for this week since 2006. Below is what we predict USDA will report next week for US wheat by class.

 

 

·        
USDA US all-wheat export inspections as of May 26, 2022 were 343,927 tons, within a range of trade expectations, above 275,541 tons previous week and compares to 317,278 tons year ago. Major countries included Nigeria for 78,726
tons, Philippines for 64,999 tons, and Mexico for 58,763 tons.

·        
Manitoba, Canada, “provincial seeding progress sits at 40% completion, behind the 5-year average of 91% for Week 21. Progress remains highly variable within each region, and even from farm to farm, depending on localized rainfall
and soil conditions.”

·        
The European Commission reported July 2021 through May 29 soft wheat exports at 24.63 million tons, down from 24.72 million tons during the same period year ago.

·        
Coceral increased its EU soft wheat production estimate to 127.4 million tons from 126.8 million in March.

·        
Russia will increase their export tax on wheat for the May 27-June 2 timeframe from $110.50/ton to $121.20/ton.

·        
Ukraine May grain exports reached 1.06 million tons, down from 2.8 million during May 2021.

·        
A 55,600-ton Indian wheat cargo was rejected by Turkey back earlier this month due to kernel bunt.

·        
India was asked to supply more than 1.5 million tons of wheat from several countries in effort to ease global grain shortages.

·        
India’s monsoon weather forecast was seen “normal” for 2022, according to the state-run weather office.

·        
Egypt banned third party trading in the local wheat market.

·        
Jordan’s wheat reserves are sufficient for 13 months.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Egypt seeks wheat. Shipping for fob offers will be from July 20-31 and/or August 1-10, while shipping for c&f will be from August 1-20, it added.

·        
The Philippines are in for 55,000 tons of feed wheat on June 1 for July 15 through September 27 shipment.

·        
Jordan bought 60,000 tons of wheat at $499.50/ton c&f for shipment during the second half of August.

·        
Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons of wheat for shipment within 40 days and lowest offer over the weekend was $464.55 per ton.

·        
Algeria seeks optional origin wheat on Tuesday for July/August shipment. Algeria looks for wheat production to end up between 3.0-3.2 million tons. They also said they have enough wheat stocks to last over the next 10 months,
and they have imported 3.0 million tons of wheat so far this year.

·        
Pakistan’s TCP bought 500,000 tons of milling wheat for June-July shipment at $515.49/ton, C&F. Over the weekend Pakistan’s government agreed to buy 2.0 million tons of Russian wheat in a government-to-government transaction.
This comes after Russia wheat shipments have slowed as export quotas are exhausting. The quota terminates at the end of June.  Russia did export 329,000 tons of wheat last week, up nearly 8%.

 

Rice/Other

·        
After local Indian traders said no rice export ban would be considered Thursday, on Friday India’s government said they are again mulling over banning it.  Russia is also now considering banning rice exports from July 1 until
the end of the year. We interpret this as supportive for the wheat market as importing nations may need replacement. And Thailand along with Vietnam are looking to raise their prices to support domestic producers.

·        
Russia is also looking to ban rice exports from July 1 through December 31. 

·        
Vietnam January through May rice exports were 2.86 million tons, up 10.3 percent from same period year ago.

 

Updated
5/24/22

Chicago
– July $10.50 to $13.00 range, December $8.50-$12.50

KC
– July $11.50 to $13.75 range, December $8.75-$13.50

MN
– July $11.75‐$14.00, December $9.00-$14.00