FI Evening Grain Comments 07/14/22

PDF Attached

 

Another
yo-yo session. Outside markets had heavy influence on CBOT ag prices prior to the day session open but some agriculture markets found a grove with help of funds influencing direction. Adverse US weather and China interest for US corn supported corn. Wheat
ended lower on a higher USD despite robust export sales. Product spreading and expectations USDA is too high on current year exports pressured soybeans.

 

 

Weather

The
US CPC warned La Nina conditions may continue through the rest of 2022. Conditions may decrease for the northern hemisphere late this summer and increase this fall and early winter.

 

 

 

 

Argentina
to see very cold temps 14-20 period (min below), normal for winter  Following up with a comment with a coworker, he suggested that could be more of a problem for natural gas supplies for crushers.

 

World
Weather Inc.

WEATHER
TO WATCH AROUND THE WORLD

• No
  big theme changes were noted around the world overnight
• Hot
  and dry weather is expected from South Dakota to Texas as well as portions of the northern Delta and western and southern Missouri
• High
  temperatures will be in the 90s to 108 degrees Fahrenheit frequently in the next week to ten days from South Dakota to Texas and in the upper 80s and 90s from southern Minnesota through Missouri and the northern Delta
• A
  few extremes near 100 will occur as far east as the Missouri River
• Rainfall
  will be minimal in most of these areas, although some weekend rain is possible in a part of Missouri and Sunday into Monday for the northern Delta
• Missouri
  rainfall is likely overdone by the European model forecast
• Crop
  moisture and heat stress will be greatest in the  Plains states, but there will also be some milder heat and dryness from southwestern Iowa and eastern Kansas through the northern Delta; including most of Missouri
  
• Crop
  stress will also present a threat to yields especially late season crops
• Cotton,
  corn and sorghum in the southern Plains has already lost production potential and more losses are likely
• Timely
  rainfall will impact other areas in the northern and eastern U.S. Midwest through the next ten days and that should help support favorable corn and soybean development
• A
  few pockets of dryness will prevail and must be watched for possible expansion later in the summer
• Lower
  U.S. Delta and southeastern states weather will be most favorable for crop development during the next two weeks
• U.S.
  Pacific Northwest will be dry and very warm to hot at times over the next ten days
• No
  drought relief in most of the far western U.S.
• Much
  of Europe continues to drying out and this trend will last for the next ten days with temperatures hot in much of the west through the weekend and eventually spreading into central parts of the continent next week
  
• Heat
  and dryness will prevail through all next week, despite a few showers
• Extreme
  highs in the 80s and 90s will be common across the continent this weekend into next week while western areas see some extremes of 96 to 108 degree readings across France and to 113 in Spain
• Germany
  could eventually see a couple of extreme temperatures near 100 as well
• Crop
  and livestock stress will threaten production for grains, oilseeds, milk, fruits and vegetables as well as result in lower animal weight gains
• Cooling
  fuel demand will be quite strong
• Far
  northeastern Europe will receive most of the significant rainfall in the continent over the next ten days
• Europe
  weather Wednesday was mostly dry and heating up in the west
• Highest
  temperatures were in the 90s and lower 100s from southwestern France into Spain and Portugal
  
• Highest
  temperatures in the remainder of France were in the 90s while the U.K reached into the upper 70s and 80s. Western Germany warmed to the 80s and lower 90s
• Rain
  fell mostly in easternmost parts of the continent
• Russia’s
  Southern Region will experience some periodic showers over the next ten days supporting some improvement for crop and field conditions after recent drying, but much more rain will be needed.
  
• Most
  other areas in Russia, northern Ukraine, Belarus and the Baltic States will see rain routinely during the next couple of weeks resulting in moisture abundance
• Canada’s
  southern Prairies will experience net drying conditions during much of the coming week to ten days
• Southern
  Saskatchewan will be driest and have the greatest need for rain as time moves along
• Most
  of the Prairies except western and northern Alberta will experience net drying conditions for a while during the coming week with possibly better rainfall in parts of the region during the July 21-27 period
• Parts
  of Ontario, Canada need rain while Quebec crops continue to develop favorably
• Drought
  in northeastern Mexico and the southern U.S. Plains is unlikely to change in the next two weeks unless the tropical disturbance noted above in the north-central Gulf of Mexico moves to Texas in which there might be some relief from dryness in Texas, but confidence
  is very low
• Most
  likely any rain from such an event as this will not seriously relief drought conditions
• Mexico
  rain will be most abundant in the west and southern parts of the nation
• Argentina
  rainfall will continue restricted during the next ten days except in east-central and northeastern parts of the nation where rain is expected periodically
• Some
  showers will occur in the west-central and southwest Friday into Saturday, but resulting rainfall is unlikely to seriously change the moisture profile
• Greater
  rain will still be needed throughout the wheat region, but especially in the west where it has been driest for the longest period of time
• The
  GFS model suggested some late July rainfall will be possible, but confidence is very low
• South
  America temperatures over the next two weeks will be near to below average in Argentina, Uruguay and far southern Brazil and near to above normal elsewhere in Brazil
• Brazil
  rainfall will be minimal except in Atlantic coastal areas and from the southernmost parts of Mato Grosso do Sul and southwestern Sao Paulo into Rio Grande do Sul and Paraguay during the next ten days
• Some
  of the advertised rain will be heavy from Uruguay into Rio Grande do Sul where 1.00 to 3.00 inches are expected
  
• Good
  drying conditions are likely elsewhere supporting Safrinha crop maturation and harvest progress
• India’s
  monsoon will continue to perform aggressively over the next two weeks with widespread rain of significance expected along the west coast and from Odisha and northeastern Andhra Pradesh to Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Rajasthan
• Only
  far southern and some east-central India locations will receive lighter than usual precipitation
• Summer
  crop development will advance well, although flooding is expected to become a problem for a few production areas and replanting may be necessary
• China
  rainfall is expected to be periodic and often abundant in east-central China and the northeastern Provinces while the interior southeast drier biased
• Excessive
  rain events should not occur as often as they have been, but the nation will continue very wet and would benefit from some drying
• Recent
  drier and warmer weather in east-central China has helped to improve crop and soil conditions
• Parts
  of China need sunnier weather to induce better drying conditions after recent excessive rainfall. Crop damage has occurred in various areas in recent weeks because of too much moisture and serious flooding.
• China’s
  Xinjiang province continues to experience relatively good weather
• A
  few showers and thunderstorms are expected, but most of the region will be dry with temperatures varying greatly over the week to ten days
• Sumatra,
  Indonesia will continue receiving lighter than usual rainfall over the coming week, although there will be sufficient amounts to support most crop needs
• Greater
  rain is expected in the July 21-27 period
• All
  other Southeast Asian nations will experience an abundance of rainfall during the next few weeks resulting in some flooding
  
• Crop
  damage potentials from flooding will be greatest in Philippines, some mainland areas and New Guinea.
  
• Southern
  Australia will get periodic rainfall southern wheat, barley and canola production areas through the next ten days
• Winter
  crops are establishing well
• South
  Korea rice areas are still dealing with a serious drought, despite some rain that fell recently.
  
• Some
  rain is expected over the next couple of weeks and it should gradually be enough to ease dryness and crop stress
• East-central
  Africa rainfall will be greatest in central and western Ethiopia and lightest in parts of Uganda.
  
• Tanzania
  is normal dry at this time of year and it should be that way for the next few of weeks
• Some
  areas in Kenya are expected to trend wetter in the next ten days
• West-central
  Africa rainfall has been and will continue sufficient to support coffee, cocoa, sugarcane, rice and cotton development normally
• Some
  greater rain would still be welcome in the drier areas of Ivory Coast
• South
  Africa’s crop moisture situation is favorable for winter crop emergence, although some additional rain might be welcome
• Some
  rain will fall in the southwestern crop areas periodically over the next couple of weeks maintaining good soil moisture for winter crop establishment
• Central
  America rainfall will continue to be abundant to excessive and drying is needed
• Rain
  in the Greater Antilles will occur periodically, but no excessive amounts are likely
• Today’s
  Southern Oscillation Index was +14.44 and it will move erratically lower during the coming week
• New
  Zealand weather is expected to be well mixed over the next ten days
• Temperatures
  are expected to be a little milder than usual

Source:
World Weather INC

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Thursday,
July 14:

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• HOLIDAY:
  France

Friday,
July 15:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• China’s
  1H pork output and hog inventory
• Malaysia’s
  July 1-15 palm oil export data
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• The
  Cocoa Association of Asia releases 2Q cocoa grind data

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

USDA
Export Sales

Big
wheat sales of 1.017 million tons with net increases for China (265,300), South Korea and Mexico. The wheat sales are largest since 10/24/2013 when USDA reported 1,308,837 tons. On a current year and new-crop combined basis, they were largest in two years.

 

US
corn sales were good on combined basis.  China bought 90,500 tons of new-crop corn. Soybean sales were poor, especially for old crop with net reductions of 362,800 tons. Increases for current crop year soybeans (mostly EU) were offset by reductions primarily
for unknown destinations (367,600 MT), China (130,800 MT), Egypt (68,900 MT), and Costa Rica (16,000 MT).  Soybean meal sales were ok, not old but new-crop and shipments. Soybean oil sales were again poor.

 

 

 

Macros

US
Jobless Claims Jul 9: 244K (est 235K; prev 235K)

US
Continuing Claims Jul 9: 1331K (est 1380K; prev 1375K)

US
PPI Final Demand (M/M) Jun: 1.1% (est 0.8%; prevR 0.9%)

US
PPI Final Demand (Y/Y) Jun: 11.3% (est 10.7%; prevR 10.9%)

97
Counterparties Take $2.207 Tln At Fed Reverse Repo Op (prev $2.155 Tln, 96 Bids)

 

Corn

·        
CBOT corn
turned higher after the day session open despite a sharply higher USD, lower WTI and lower trade in US equity futures. Corn was the steadiest market for ags today, after trading two-sided overnight. Adverse weather conditions for the US was noted. US and European
weather is starting to chip away at yields and should be overlooked. Funds bought an estimated net 6,000 contracts. 

·        
There have been a number of stories floating around over China approving and buying Brazil corn exports. One source suggests it will not happen until next year. Another thinks it could happen this summer. China does not currently
buy a large amount of corn from Brazil.  But the government is looking to increase it. China’s import agreement with Brazil still requires formal approval, but I expect this to fast-track as they are looking for replacing some of the Ukraine corn business
that was lost. China does buy Brazil corn, but it is in small amounts. From what we read from an independent source, 35,000 tons was sold to China during April, the only “large” shipment since 2019.

·        
August WTI crude oil touched an April 11 level, but well off session lows as of 1:15 pm CT, in part to expectations for the US Fed to hike interest rates over the next two upcoming decision making FOMC meetings.
US
gasoline demand plunged per EIA, something that may cut into ethanol demand. We lowered our corn for ethanol use projection on Wednesday (see evening comment).
Cash
Brent crude was trading below $100 earlier this morning, WTI was at around $94 for the nearby.

·        
We look for US ethanol production to decline again when updated next week.

·        
Traders will be monitoring Black Sea grain shipment talks between Ukraine, Russia, UN and Turkey.

·        
Argentina’s Rosario Grains Exchange increased their 2021-22 corn production estimate to 51.0 million tons from previous 49.2 million.

·        
US weather over the next couple of weeks offers several heat waves with a ridge of high pressure centered over the western Hard Red Winter Wheat belt, oscillating east occasionally.

 

Export
developments.

·        
South Korea’s NOFI group bought 135,000 tons of corn from South America or South Africa at $325.49/ton c&f for arrival around October 20 for one cargo, and October 30 for a second shipment.

 

EIA:
U.S. monthly average Henry Hub spot price nearly doubled in 12 months

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=53039&src=email

 

Updated
7/1/22

September
corn is seen in a $5.50 and $7.50 range

December
corn is seen in a wide $5.00-$8.00 range

 

Soybeans

·        
The US soybean complex traded two-sided, with soybeans ending mostly lower despite unfavorable US weather forecasts. Corn/soybean spreading should not be ruled out. Meal gained on soybean oil and the oil share is getting cheap,
all the way though the December position. Calling a bottom in Dec oil share seems to be out of reach, but if it dips to 38 percent, we will consider it to be a buy. Funds sold an estimated net 5,000 soybeans, bought 2,000 meal and sold 3,000 soybean oil.

 

August
oil share hit its lowest level since Q2 2021 (not a rolling basis)

Source:
Reuters and FI

 

·        
USDA export sales were ok for new-crop meal (old crop was poor), poor for current crop year soybeans and poor for soybean oil. China cancelled US soybeans, aa signal they might be updating their books to step in and buy soybeans
at cheaper prices. They bought US wheat and new-crop corn. China’s vegetable oil supplies likely shrank last month, and they will eventually need to crush soybeans for soybean oil.

·        
Some analysts are penciling in a smaller US soybean export projection for 2021-22. Current crop year commitments are just shy of USDA’s estimate, but shipments need to increase to reach that level.

·        
Brazil rolled out legislation that favors a tax advantage on biofuels over fossil fuels. Reuters noted “Brazil’s lower house approved the government-sponsored bill that among other things includes a provision saying biofuels should
enjoy lower taxes than fossil fuels for a period of 20 years.” “The package includes a 1,000 reais ($185) payout for self-employed truckers, benefits for taxi drivers, and 50% increases in social welfare payments.”

·        
This morning we heard parts of China saw temperatures reaching upwards to 108 Fahrenheit.

·        
Ridging across the US is expected to restrict rain through June 28. But if the ridge dies dip in and out of the Midwest, some rain could be generated.

·        
Germany’s association of farm cooperatives estimated the rapeseed crop at 3.77 million tons (3.78 previous), an 8.2 percent increase from last year.

·        
Consultancy Datagro pegged Brazil 2022 soybean sales at 77% through July 8, out of a 126.18 million ton output, or 97 million tons traded, well down from 111.3 million traded at this time a year ago. About 13 percent of new crop
has been sold by producers, down from 19 percent year ago and 19% 5-year average.

 

USDA
Attaché: European Union: Biofuels Annual

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Biofuels%20Annual_The%20Hague_European%20Union_E42022-0048.pdf

 

 

Export
Developments

·        
USDA seeks 2,230 tons of vegetable oils for export on July 17 for Aug 16-Sep 15 shipment.

·        
China looks to sell a half a million tons of soybeans out of reserves on July 15.

 

 

 

Updated
7/14/22

Soybeans
– August $13.90-$16.00

Soybeans
– November is seen in a wide $12.75-$16.50 range

Soybean
meal – August $400-$485

Soybean
oil – August 56.00-62.00

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat futures traded two-sided, ending lower on a higher USD and possible spreading with corn. USDA export sales report rallied prices initially per day session open after USDA reported the largest weekly US wheat export sales
since October 2013. USDA reported big wheat sales with net increases for China (265,300), South Korea and Mexico. On a combined crop year basis, sales are highest in two years. US wheat futures for all three markets are higher. 

·        
Funds sold an estimated net 4,000 Chicago soft red winter contracts.

·        
Ukraine’s largest food grower warned getting commodities to ports could be a challenge if Black Sea shipments resume, citing infrastructure damage and other setbacks.

·        
The morning weather forecast improved a touch for the Midwest & Delta and was unchanged for the Great Plains.

·        
Despite harsh weather, China’s government estimated their wheat crop at 135.76 million tons, a 1 percent increase from 2021, citing a slight increase in acreage and 0.7% increase in the yield. Record domestic prices earlier this
year likely led to low abandonment. The area planted to spring wheat in the northwest expanded at the expense of cotton.

·        
Germany’s association of farm cooperatives estimated the wheat crop at 22.51 million tons (22.65 MMT previous), a 5.3 percent increase from 2021.

·        
IKAR increased their estimate of the Russian wheat crop from 88.7 million tons to 90.5 million and increased exportable supplies by 2 million tons to 44 million. The grain production estimate is now 138.5 million tons, with 56.1
million tons of exportable grain supplies.

·        
Argentina’s Rosario Grains Exchange lowered their wheat production estimate to 17.7 million tons from previous 18.5 million.

·        
Paris wheat was down 0.50 euros at 342.75 euros.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
South Korea’s NOFI group bought 65,000 tons of feed wheat from Australia at $369.88/ton c&f for shipment between September 13 and October 5.

·        
Japan bought 130,900 tons of food wheat for September and January shipment. Original tender details below.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of wheat on July 19 for possible shipment sometime in November and/or December.

·        
Jordan bought 60,000 tons of barley at $352 c&f for LH Nov shipment.

·        
Bangladesh saw one participant in their 50,000 ton wheat import tender, with an offer of $476.38/ton c&f, optional origin.

·        
Pakistan seeks 300,000 tons of wheat, set to close July 18 for Aug 1-25 shipment.

 

Rice/Other

·        
None reported

 

Updated
7/1/22

Chicago
– September $7.75 to $9.50 range, December $8.00-$11.00

KC
– September $8.00 to $10.50 range, December $8.50-$12.00

MN
– September $8.50‐$11.00, December $8.00-$12.50

 

USDA Export Sales

Big wheat sales with net increases for China (265,300), South Korea and
Mexico. US wheat futures for all three markets are higher. 
Current crop year wheat sales are largest since 10/24/2013 when USDA reported 1,308,837 tons.

 

US corn sales were good on combined basis.  China bought 90,500 tons of
new-crop corn. Soybean sales were poor, especially for old crop with net reductions of 362,800 tons. Increases for current crop year soybeans (mostly EU) were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (367,600 MT), China (130,800 MT), Egypt (68,900
MT), and Costa Rica (16,000 MT).  Soybean meal sales were ok while soybean oil sales were again poor. The report was seen friendly for meal over oil, wheat, and new-crop corn. 

 

 

 

This
summary is based on reports from exporters for the period July 1-7, 2022.

 Wheat: Net sales
of 1,017,200 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (265,300 MT), South Korea (148,400 MT), Mexico (91,300 MT, including decreases of 1,000 MT), unknown
destinations (74,300 MT), and Guatemala (69,800 MT, including 35,300 MT switched from El Salvador), were offset by reductions for El Salvador (34,900 MT) and Nigeria (4,500 MT).  Total net sales of 30,000 MT for 2023/2024 were reported for Brazil.  Exports
of 270,000 MT were down 6 percent from the previous week and 13 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destination were primarily to South Korea (81,200 MT), Mexico (69,100 MT), Guatemala (36,200 MT), Taiwan (28,500 MT), and Peru (23,900 MT).   

Corn: 
Net sales of 59,000 MT for 2021/2022 were down noticeably from the previous week and down 72 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Japan (124,100 MT, including 120,400 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (57,000 MT, including
decreases of 600 MT), Morocco (30,200 MT – late), El Salvador (11,500 MT), and Nicaragua (7,500 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (113,400 MT) and Canada (54,600 MT).  Net sales of 348,200 MT for 2022/2023 were primarily for
Japan (130,600 MT), China (90,500 MT), Colombia (60,000 MT), Mexico (36,500 MT), and El Salvador (15,000 MT).  Exports of 916,100 MT were down 11 percent from the previous week and 24 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily
to China (404,900 MT), Mexico (227,200 MT), Japan (223,900 MT, including 400 MT – late), Morocco (30,200 MT – late), and Canada (13,800 MT).   

Optional Origin Sales:  For
2021/2022, the current outstanding balance of 108,300 MT is for unknown destinations (65,000 MT), Italy (34,300 MT), and Saudi Arabia (9,000 MT).  For 2022/2023, the current outstanding balance of 35,400 MT is for Italy. 

Late Reporting: For
2021/20222, net sales totaling 30,200 MT of corn were reported late for Morocco.  Exports totaling 30,600 MT of corn were reported late for Morocco (30,200 MT) and Japan (400 MT). 

Barley:  No
net sales were reported for the week.  Exports of 500 MT were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 7 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destination was to Japan.   

Sorghum: 
Net sales reductions of 2,600 MT for 2021/2022 were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  Increases reported for China (77,700 MT, including 68,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), were more than offset by reductions
for unknown destinations (78,000 MT) and Mexico (2,300 MT).  Exports of 186,200 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and up 74 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (147,800 MT) and Mexico (38,100 MT). 

Rice: 
Net sales of 27,400 MT for 2021/2022 were down 10 percent from the previous week and 25 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (16,800 MT), Haiti (8,200 MT), Canada (1,800 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Guatemala (500 MT),
and the Netherlands Antilles (300 MT), were offset by reductions for Costa Rica (300 MT).  Exports of 47,300 MT were up 43 percent from the previous week, but down 20 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (19,600
MT), Costa Rica (14,700 MT), Japan (8,100 MT), Canada (2,800 MT, including 100 MT – late), and Taiwan (700 MT).  

Late Reporting: For
2021/20222, exports totaling 100 MT of long grain, brown rice were reported late for Canada. 

Soybeans:  Net
sales reductions of 362,900 MT for 2021/2022 were a marketing-year low.  Increases primarily for the Netherlands (67,600 MT, including 63,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Germany (64,100 MT), Algeria (42,900 MT, including 45,000 MT switched from
unknown destinations and decreases of 2,100 MT), Vietnam (14,800 MT), and Peru (12,400 MT, including 10,500 MT switched from unknown destinations), were more than offset by
reductions primarily for unknown destinations (367,600 MT), China (130,800 MT), Egypt (68,900 MT), and Costa Rica (16,000 MT).  Net sales of 113,900 MT for 2022/2023 were primarily for China (90,000 MT), Costa Rica (16,000 MT), and Japan (7,700 MT).  Exports
of 440,900 MT were down 13 percent from the previous week and 16 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (84,800 MT), Mexico (68,900 MT), the Netherlands (67,600 MT), Germany (64,100 MT), and Egypt (57,100 MT).    

Export for Own Account: For
2021/2022, the current exports for own account outstanding balance is 6,300 MT, all Canada. 

Late Reporting:
For 2021/2022, exports totaling 1,200 MT of soybeans was reported late for Taiwan. 

Export Adjustment: Accumulated
exports of soybeans to the Netherlands were adjusted down 64,059 MT for week ending June 23^rd.  The correct destination for this shipment is Germany.   

Soybean Cake and Meal:  Net
sales of 8,200 MT for 2021/2022 were down 95 percent from the previous week and 92 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Canada (8,700 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), Mexico (7,500 MT), El Salvador (6,000 MT), Japan (5,400 MT),
and Guatemala (3,400 MT switched from Honduras), were offset by reductions primarily for Colombia (24,000 MT) and Honduras (5,000 MT).  Net sales of 145,900 MT for 2022/2023 were primarily for Ecuador (90,000 MT), Guatemala (22,600 MT), El Salvador (13,500
MT), Canada (11,200 MT), and Panama (8,300 MT).  Exports of 149,600 MT were down 37 percent from the previous week and 38 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (36,800 MT), Japan (31,500 MT), Venezuela (26,100 MT),
Canada (21,400 MT), and Morocco (20,000 MT).   

Soybean Oil:  Net
sales of 1,000 MT for 2021/2022 were down noticeably from the previous week and down 54 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were reported for Guatemala (500 MT) and Canada (500 MT).  Exports of 16,900 MT were up noticeably from the previous week
and from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to South Korea (11,900 MT) and Mexico (4,300 MT).   

Cotton: 
Net sales of 10,200 RB for 2021/2022–a marketing-year low–were down 73 percent from the previous week and 68 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Turkey (7,500 RB, including decreases of 900 RB), Mexico (2,800 RB), Algeria (1,500
RB), China (1,200 RB, including 600 RB switched from India and decreases of 200 RB), and Taiwan (900 RB), were offset by reductions for Pakistan (3,200 RB), India (600 RB), and Japan (400 RB).  Net sales of 139,300 RB for 2022/2023 primarily for Turkey (73,800
RB), Pakistan (33,900 RB), India (13,200 RB), Nicaragua (8,800 RB), and Peru (7,000 RB), were offset by reductions for Vietnam (4,100 RB), Guatemala (3,500 RB), and Mexico (600 RB).  Exports of 312,700 RB were down 17 percent from the previous week and 14
percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (74,000 RB), Turkey (64,800 RB), India (39,000 RB), Vietnam (30,600 RB), and Pakistan (28,100 RB).  Total net sales of 1,300 RB of Pima were up 43 percent from the previous week
and 36 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were for Thailand.  Net sales reductions of 100 RB for 2022/2023 resulting in increases for India (400 RB), were more than offset by reductions for Peru (500 RB).  Exports of 4,400 RB were down 59 percent
from the previous week and 40 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were to China (2,800 RB), India (1,300 RB), Egypt (200 RB), and Italy (100 RB).   

Optional Origin Sales: 
For 2021/2022, the current outstanding balance of 12,700 RB is for Vietnam (10,200 RB) and Pakistan (2,500 RB).   

Export for Own Account: For
2021/2022, new exports for own account totaling 19,400 RB were primarily to China (9,800 RB).  Exports for own account totaling 3,500 RB to China were applied to new or outstanding sales.  The current exports for own account outstanding balance of 66,100 RB
is for China (37,700 RB), Vietnam (23,600 RB), and Indonesia (4,800 RB). 

Hides
and Skins:  Net
sales of 280,600 pieces for 2022 were down 11 percent from the previous week and 34 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (210,700 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 2,800 pieces), Brazil (31,900 whole cattle hides,
including decreases of 700 pieces), Mexico (24,600 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 600 pieces), Taiwan (10,900 whole cattle hides), and Colombia (3,200 whole cattle hides), were offset by reductions for Thailand (3,100 pieces).  Exports of 279,200
pieces were down 19 percent from the previous week and 32 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Whole cattle hides exports were primarily to China (160,400 pieces), South Korea (41,800 pieces), Mexico (32,300 pieces), Thailand (17,900 pieces), and Brazil
(9,700 pieces).   

Net
sales of 141,900 wet blues for 2022 were down 44 percent from the previous week and 25 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases reported for Italy (73,300 unsplit, including decreases of 200 grain splits), Thailand (38,500 unsplit, including decreases
of 100 unsplit), Vietnam (21,900 unsplit), China (9,500 unsplit), and Mexico (900 unsplit), were offset by reductions for Brazil (1,900 unsplit).  Exports of 70,100 wet blues were down 16 percent from the previous week and 48 percent from the prior 4-week
average.  The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (24,000 unsplit), Italy (13,900 unsplit and 3,000 grain splits), Thailand (14,900 unsplit), China (12,000 unsplit), and Brazil (1,600 unsplit).  Net sales of 46,400 splits were down 92 percent from the previous
week and 77 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were reported for China (44,000 pounds) and South Korea (2,400 pounds, including decreases of 1,700 pounds).  Exports of 320,000 pounds were down 38 percent from the previous week and 36 percent
from the prior 4-week average. The destination was to Vietnam. 

Beef:  Net
sales of 9,200 MT for 2022–a marketing-year low–were down 17 percent from the previous week and 35 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Japan (3,800 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), Mexico (2,900 MT), Canada (900 MT), China
(500 MT, including decreases of 900 MT), and Taiwan (400 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), were offset by reductions for South Korea (700 MT).  Exports of 17,100 MT were down 16 percent from the previous week and 13 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The
destinations were primarily to Japan (6,300 MT), South Korea (4,500 MT), China (2,300 MT), Mexico (1,000 MT), and Canada (700 MT).   

Pork:  Net
sales of 18,300 MT for 2022 were down 42 percent from the previous week and 37 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Mexico (10,100 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), Japan (3,400 MT, including decreases of 800 MT), China (1,600
MT, including decreases of 200 MT), South Korea (1,200 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), and Colombia (800 MT).  Exports of 23,100 MT were down 28 percent from the previous week and 21 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily
to Mexico (10,800 MT), China (3,600 MT), Japan (2,900 MT), South Korea (2,100 MT), and Colombia  (1,000 MT). 

 

U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING 
7/7/2022

 

	CURRENT MARKETING YEAR						NEXT MARKETING YEAR
COMMODITY	NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES		WEEKLY EXPORTS	ACCUMULATED EXPORTS		NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES
		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO
	THOUSAND METRIC TONS
WHEAT
HRW	240.9	1,530.7	1,613.7	69.4	505.7	739.3	0.0	0.0
SRW	212.1	1,140.6	884.4	75.3	266.3	231.0	30.0	30.0
HRS	233.1	1,387.8	1,584.8	94.4	621.9	577.0	0.0	0.0
WHITE	301.0	1,173.4	1,111.6	30.8	305.0	323.6	0.0	0.0
DURUM	30.0	124.4	8.4	0.0	18.0	41.7	0.0	0.0
TOTAL	1,017.2	5,356.8	5,202.9	270.0	1,716.9	1,912.7	30.0	30.0
BARLEY	0.0	12.8	23.7	0.5	2.7	1.4	0.0	0.0
CORN	59.0	7,001.8	10,111.4	916.1	53,414.5	59,747.7	348.2	6,836.3
SORGHUM	-2.6	452.2	822.1	186.2	6,503.5	6,408.4	0.0	0.0
SOYBEANS	-362.9	6,920.6	3,234.2	440.9	52,542.3	58,691.8	113.9	13,851.6
SOY MEAL	8.2	1,915.3	2,147.2	149.6	9,358.1	9,374.0	145.9	722.2
SOY OIL	1.0	65.9	19.1	16.9	620.7	657.4	0.0	0.0
RICE
L G RGH	9.4	58.2	184.7	33.7	1,280.2	1,575.8	0.0	13.1
M S RGH	7.2	13.9	8.3	0.1	14.2	25.6	0.0	0.0
L G BRN	0.1	2.8	11.8	0.3	51.9	39.6	0.0	0.0
M&S BR	0.0	8.9	22.9	0.7	78.7	133.9	0.0	0.0
L G MLD	9.6	80.6	35.1	2.6	763.4	627.5	0.0	0.0
M S MLD	1.2	106.0	114.0	9.8	430.4	576.0	0.0	0.0
TOTAL	27.4	270.4	376.8	47.3	2,618.8	2,978.4	0.0	13.2
COTTON		THOUSAND RUNNING BALES
UPLAND	10.2	3,449.1	2,031.3	312.7	12,201.5	14,119.5	139.3	4,587.8
PIMA	1.3	45.4	110.3	4.4	436.7	723.4	-0.1	59.0