Black
Sea grain shipping uncertainty could influence the Sunday night open. One day after an agreement was reached, Russia bombed Odesa, a major Ukraine grain hub.
Sunday
Night Calls
Soybeans
8-12 higher
Soybean
oil 50-100 higher
Soybean
meal $2-$5 higher
Corn
3-5 higher
Chicago
Wheat 5-10 higher
KC
Wheat 6-12 higher
MN
Wheat 4-8 higher
Friday,
we saw positioning across the commodity markets. Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the UN reached an agreement to secure grain shipments out of Ukraine, but there is still a lot of uncertainty over actual shipments. The USD grinded lower, WTI was lower led by the
nearby position, and US equities lower. Soybeans rallied led by soybean oil, meal was lower, corn trended lower from sharply lower wheat. US temperatures will increase again this week increasing crop stress.
Last
seven days
World
Weather Inc.
WEATHER
TO WATCH AROUND THE WORLD
- Not
much change occurred overnight for world weather - Europe
heat and dryness will continue a concern for the next ten days - The
region of greatest concern will be from Slovakia into Greece where dryness is already significant in many areas - Warmer
than usual temperatures and restricted rainfall in these areas will keep crops stress and lower production will be inevitable in unirrigated corn, soybean, sorghum and sunseed production areas - Daily
high temperatures in the 90s Fahrenheit with some extremes over 100 are expected - Western
Europe will also continue drier biased, but temperatures will not be as hot as they were earlier this week, and a few showers may occur - Net
drying is expected to continue with France at the center of the most negatively impacted nations - Rain
will fall most often from Czech Republic into the Baltic States and Belarus including Poland where the best soil and crop conditions are likely - U.S.
weather is still advertised to be favorable in the coming ten days with rain for most areas; including some of the drier areas of the Plains and southwestern Corn Belt - Rain
advertised for northern and western Texas and Oklahoma does not occur significantly until late next week and into the following weekend - Some
of the advertised rain may be overdone and it will be totally dependent upon the cold surge from Canada being as great as advertised
- The
cold may be overdone and there is nearly a week between now and then for the model to moderate its outlook – so use some caution - U.S.
second week outlook is expected to trend drier and hotter with the heat first bubbling up in the central and southern Plains and southwestern Corn Belt - The
relief expected in the central Plains, Oklahoma and northern Texas as well as the northern Delta will only last ten days – at the most and since some of these areas do not get rain or any cooling until late next week the period of relief may be restricted
to less than a week - West
Texas cotton, corn and sorghum areas will get “some” showers late next week through the first couple of days in August, but the odds are not high that there will be enough rain to change the bottom line - Northern
U.S. Delta, central Missouri, eastern Kansas and neighboring areas will not likely get much rain or relief from recent hot and dry weather until late next week - Showers
and thunderstorms should evolve late next week and into the following weekend offering a short term bout of relief - Much
more rain will be needed, though, to turn around crops and follow up rainfall may not be very great
- U.S.
northern Plains will get some showers in the next week to ten days, but much of it may be a little too light to change soil moisture especially in the northwest where the driest soil is present
- Excessive
heat in the central U.S. is expected to abate for a little while, but the next few days will continue hot enough to stress crops, livestock and humans from eastern Montana and South Dakota to Texas - Highest
temperatures will be in the upper 90s to 110, although most readings will stay below 107 and the hottest readings will stay mostly in the southern Plains.
- All
of the heat should retreat into Texas next week and into the following week while near to below average temperatures impact the northern Plains and Midwest - Montana
and South Dakota will be hot today and milder after that - Central
U.S. Plains and southwestern Corn Belt will be hottest through Saturday and possibly Sunday before cooling down to more seasonable levels - Drought
in the western United States will be intensified during the latter part of July and early August because of a ridge of high pressure expected in the region and resulting hot and dry conditions - U.S.
southeastern states will continue to experience a favorable mix of weather for a little while longer, but may dry down briefly this weekend into next week before resuming in the second week of the outlook - Drought
in northeastern Mexico and the southern U.S. Plains is unlikely to change in the next two weeks
- Most
likely the only way drought will break in these areas will be from a tropical cyclone and none is expected for a while – at least not in that region.
- Many
corn, sorghum, citrus, sugarcane and dry bean crops are being negatively impacted in Mexico along with various other fruit and vegetable crops - Mexico
rain will be most abundant in the west and southern parts of the nation - India’s
monsoon is expected to continue performing favorably with widespread rain across most of the nation during the next couple of weeks - Central
and some northern parts of the nation may be a little too wet at times resulting in some flooding - Sufficient
breaks in the rain are expected to prevent a major flood from occurring - Russia’s
Southern Region will receive periods of rain and drizzle during the next several days while temperatures are cooler than usual - The
environment will be good for improving summer crops that have been recently stressed and strained by dryness
- Other
areas in Russia will experience a good mix of weather during the next ten days - Portions
of western and southern Ukraine are expected to miss out on rainfall during the next ten days to two weeks and that may raise the potential for crop moisture stress as time moves along - Argentina
rain potentials remain good for next week as two waves of moisture come into wheat production areas
- The
rain will bolster topsoil moisture for better germination, emergence and establishment, although follow up rain will be imperative
- Canada’s
Prairies weather will trend a little drier the remainder of this week and into next week, although some showers will occur periodically - Temperatures
will be near to normal with restricted rainfall - Crop
development should advance relatively well in most areas, but timely rain will soon be needed once again
- The
southwestern Prairies are expecting to be drier than normal for at least the next ten days - Southeastern
Canada crop conditions are rated favorably with little change likely for a while - South
America temperatures over the next week will be near to above average with some cooling likely in Argentina and southern Brazil during the middle to latter part of next week - Brazil
rainfall will be minimal except in Atlantic coastal areas and in far southern Brazil - Rainfall
will be light, and some areas will experience net drying - Drying
in other areas of Brazil will be great for Safrinha crop harvesting - Most
of China’s crop region east of Tibet and north of the Yangtze River Valley will get rain at one time or another during the next two weeks and all of it will be good for summer crop development - The
greatest rainfall may occur in east-central and northeastern parts of the nation
- Southeastern
China is expected to continue drying out through the next ten days and perhaps longer - Soil
conditions will eventually become a little too dry raising concern for the region’s late season rice and eventually stressing some sugarcane and a few other crops - Dryness
is not a problem today, but a couple of weeks from now the situation will be different
- Temperatures
will continue near to above normal - China’s
Xinjiang province continues to experience relatively good weather - A
few showers and thunderstorms are expected, but most of the region will be dry with temperatures varying greatly over the week to ten days - There
were no organized tropical cyclones in the world today, although a new disturbance is expected to evolve in the eastern Pacific in the coming week
- Sumatra,
Indonesia rainfall remained restricted Thursday - Below
average precipitation has occurred in many areas from northern and central Sumatra into northwestern Borneo in recent weeks and greater rain is needed - Locally
heavy rain fell in central Sumatra briefly Tuesday, but only a few areas were impacted - Some
increase in rain is expected in coming days, but amounts may continue lighter than usual in many areas
- Precipitation
will become more widespread next week - All
other Southeast Asian nations will experience an abundance of rainfall during the next few weeks resulting in some flooding in the Philippines and the Maritime provinces - Recent
rain has improved soil moisture in parts of Thailand after a drier than usual bias earlier this season - Australia
weather in the coming ten days will be favorable for most winter crops - Central
Queensland received rain Wednesday and Thursday favoring a boost in topsoil moisture for a part of winter crop country
- Western
Australia will get most of the significant rain this coming week, but some rain will eventually reach the southeastern parts of the nation in time next week.
- South
Korea rice areas are still dealing with a serious drought, despite some rain that fell recently.
- Some
additional rain is expected over the next couple of weeks, and it should gradually be enough to ease dryness and crop stress, but production will be down - East-central
Africa rainfall will be greatest in central and western Ethiopia and lightest in parts of Uganda.
- Tanzania
is normally dry at this time of year, and it should be that way for the next few of weeks - Some
areas in Kenya are expected to trend wetter in the next ten days - West-central
Africa rainfall has been and will continue sufficient to support coffee, cocoa, sugarcane, rice and cotton development normally - Some
greater rain would still be welcome in the drier areas of Ivory Coast - Seasonal
rains are shifting northward leading to some drying in southern areas throughout west-central Africa - Cotton
areas are expecting much greater rainfall in the next couple of weeks and there is some potential for flooding - Flooding
is also possible in Guinea, Sierra Leone and southern Mali over the next couple weeks
- Mali
has been drier than usual over the past 30 days and rain would benefit cotton and many other crops – at least for a while - South
Africa’s crop moisture situation is favorable for winter crop establishment, although some additional rain might be welcome - Restricted
rainfall is expected for a while, but the crop is rated better than usual - Central
America rainfall will continue to be abundant to excessive and drying is needed - Rain
in the Greater Antilles will occur periodically, but no excessive amounts are likely - Today’s
Southern Oscillation Index was +9.13 and it will continue to move lower over the next several days - New
Zealand weather is expected to be well mixed over the next ten days - Temperatures
are expected to be a little cooler than usual - Rainfall
will be greater than usual in North Island in this coming week and near to below average in South Island
Source:
World Weather INC
Bloomberg
Ag Calendar
Monday,
July 25:
- USDA
export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am - US
June poultry slaughter, 3pm - US
crop conditions for spring and winter wheat, corn, soybeans and cotton; spring wheat harvest, 4pm - Brazil’s
Unica to release cane crushing and sugar output data (tentative) - Malaysia’s
July 1-25 palm oil export data
Tuesday,
July 26:
- EU
weekly grain, oilseed import and export data - Earnings:
ADM
Wednesday,
July 27:
- EIA
weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am - Earnings:
Bunge
Thursday,
July 28:
- USDA
weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am - Buenos
Aires grains exchange weekly crop report - HOLIDAY:
Thailand
Friday,
July 29:
- Vietnam
July coffee, rice and rubber export data - FranceAgriMer
weekly update on crop conditions - ICE
Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report - US
agricultural prices paid, received, 3pm - CFTC
commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm - HOLIDAY:
Thailand
Below
tables were updated to reflect end of close Friday
CFTC
COT
Traders
missed it for corn and soybeans
Reuters
table
SUPPLEMENTAL
Non-Comm Indexes Comm
Net Chg Net Chg Net Chg
Corn
35,949 -30,925 381,692 -9,861 -374,576 32,505
Soybeans
26,451 -4,202 146,682 -9,650 -140,592 13,486
Soyoil
-2,481 -2,931 90,123 -1,894 -91,831 3,798
CBOT
wheat -47,233 941 118,733 -2,787 -62,736 1,726
KCBT
wheat -9,675 -4,157 49,564 -150 -36,708 4,780
FUTURES
+ OPTS Managed Swaps Producer
Net Chg Net Chg Net Chg
Corn
125,303 -25,871 256,617 -6,201 -375,936 35,578
Soybeans
87,832 -7,879 95,111 -4,946 -143,128 14,052
Soymeal
66,588 -1,703 81,642 907 -191,420 -1,496
Soyoil
17,844 -1,033 77,952 1,001 -103,883 1,693
CBOT
wheat -6,816 -372 63,805 1,486 -50,858 221
KCBT
wheat 11,868 -4,519 26,943 781 -30,811 4,549
MGEX
wheat 982 -1,672 1,235 2 -4,153 1,170
———- ———- ———- ———- ———- ———-
Total
wheat 6,034 -6,563 91,983 2,269 -85,822 5,940
Live
cattle 19,665 1,585 59,798 161 -95,971 -568
Feeder
cattle -2,544 3,265 3,486 85 4,413 -1,481
Lean
hogs 45,345 5,411 47,404 -2,290 -81,174 -3,399
Other NonReport Open
Net Chg Net Chg Interest Chg
Corn
37,084 -11,785 -43,067 8,279 1,878,222 -28,592
Soybeans
-7,275 -1,592 -32,540 366 782,719 -7,722
Soymeal
21,354 2,141 21,836 150 444,043 3,953
Soyoil
3,898 -2,687 4,190 1,027 436,352 8,919
CBOT
wheat 2,633 -1,455 -8,763 120 411,445 13,273
KCBT
wheat -4,820 -337 -3,180 -474 178,991 6,361
MGEX
wheat 2,016 -662 -80 1,160 62,770 -417
———- ———- ———- ———- ———- ———-
Total
wheat -171 -2,454 -12,023 806 653,206 19,217
Live
cattle 19,426 -854 -2,916 -324 326,211 -4,658
Feeder
cattle 178 -430 -5,534 -1,439 49,753 -2,744
Lean
hogs -1,045 -236 -10,531 514 257,851 1,466
Macros
Canada
Retail Sales M/M May: 2.2% (est 1.6%, prevR 0.7%)
Retail
Sales Ex Auto M/M May: 1.9% (est 1.8%, prev 1.1%)
101
Counterparties Take $2.229 Tln At Fed Reverse Repo Op (prev $2.272 Tln, 101 Bids)
Corn
·
CBOT corn
rallied earlier but lack of news led to fund selling and positioning ahead of the weekend. US and EU weather forecast changes were seen as minimal as of Saturday afternoon. Sunday weather was not available at the time this was written.
·
China’s adverse weather is abating, easing some concerns over corn and oilseed crop production losses.
·
Brazil’s weather favors second crop corn harvesting.
·
Technical buying was noted earlier Friday after a three day selling spree by the investment funds and higher soybeans. Sharply lower wheat chipped away at those gains and corn prices closed lower from widespread commodity selling
pressure and a 40+ cent decline in nearby US wheat.
·
Ukraine’s deal to ship grain safely through the Black Sea was seen bearish for corn, IMO, as bulk commodities take up storage space. But don’t expect significant quantities to be shipped over the medium term. Short term it might
be bearish US corn export demand. Long-term bullish US demand as it will be hard to move inventories from farms to ports.
·
Getting 60 million tons of grain shipped out of Ukraine during the remainder of local marketing year 2022-23 is unlikely. Too many logistical problems will hinder exports over the next several months, including rebuilding infrastructure
to move the grain from the country to ports.
·
After the weekend bombings traders should be cautious selling gains. Ukraine over the weekend said Russia cannot be trusted.
·
USDA Cattle on Feed showed July 1 inventories slightly above expectations, placements higher than expected and marketing near expectations.
·
Look for cattle prices to appreciate this week as rangers cull herds amid hot temperatures and dry conditions.
·
South Korea’s KFA bought about 65,000 tons of corn from SA and/or SAf At $310.39/ton c&f for arrival around November 10.
·
South Korea’s FLC bought about 65,000 tons of optional-origin feed corn at an estimated $317.22 a ton c&f for arrival in South Korea around Nov. 15.
Trade
News Service
September
corn is seen in a $5.50 and $7.50 range
December
corn is seen in a wide $5.00-$8.00 range