FI Evening Grain Comments 07/26/21

PDF Attached

 

Crop
conditions are viewed friendly for corn, soybeans and spring wheat. Corn was down one point for the G/E, soybeans down two and spring wheat down two.  Trade was looking for unchanged corn and soybeans and spring wheat down one. The midday weather models indicated
a drier outlook for the 1-5 & 6-10 day outlooks, and a warmer northern Plains and northern Midwest for the 11-15 day.  Attached is our updated Baltic Dry Index charts. 

 

Calls:

Soybeans
6-12 higher (ECB did improve, WCB and Delta declined)

Corn
4-7 higher (WCB declined 5.1% using our adjusted index, ECB was up 1.1%)

Wheat
5-10 higher bias MN upside

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weather

 

 

WORLD
WEATHER INC.

CHANGES
OVERNIGHT

• Heavy
  rain continued to fall in central India Sunday after beginning Saturday
• Weekend
  amounts through dawn today (India time) have ranged from 1.73 to 4.00 inches in southern Rajasthan, northwestern Madhya Pradesh and eastern Gujarat which was nearly perfect for summer crops
• Rain
  totals in western Gujarat reached 8.20 inch and varied from 5.07 to 8.93 inches in from eastern Madhya Pradesh to northeastern Maharashtra
• Some
  heavy rain also fell along the middle west coast  while lighter rain fell elsewhere in the nation
• Additional
  rain will fall in the northern and eastern portions of India during the coming ten days while net drying occurs from interior Maharashtra southward through Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka to Tamil Nadu
• Rainfall
  will be restricted in far northwestern Rajasthan, central and southern Pakistan and western Gujarat
  
• Rainfall
  elsewhere in the central, east and far north will var5y from 3.00 to 8.00 inches and locally more
• Flooding
  is possible in some of the wetter areas in the north
• Excessive
  rain fell in a few parts of China during the weekend
• North-central
  Inner Mongolia reported 3.15 to more than 8.00 inches resulting in some flooding
  
• Heavy
  rain also occurred in northeastern Heilongjiang where 4.00 to nearly 8.00 inches resulted
• Tropical
  Storm In-Fa brought nearly 16.00 inches to northern Zhejiang
• Port
  activity and shipping delays occurred in the mouth of China’s Yangtze River and around the Shanghai area during the weekend with general rainfall of 3.00 to more than 10.00 inches
• Local
  totals to nearly 16.00 inches occurred as noted above
• Additional
  rain delays are expected through mid-week, but the heaviest rainfall should be abating
• Shipping
  activity will slowly resume, but normal loading patterns are not expected before the second half of this week
• Heavy
  rain continued to fall over western Luzon Island, Philippines Sunday after beginning early in the weekend
•  3-day
  rainfall ending at dawn today varied from 5.43 to 11.83 inches with one location reporting 15.87 inches
• Flooding
  resulted in much of western Luzon
• Additional
  rain is expected in the same areas periodically this week with daily rain lighter than that of the weekend
• Additional
  rain fell in Laos, eastern Thailand and along the middle Myanmar coast during the weekend resulting in some flooding
• Rain
  totals varied from 4.00 to 6.65 inches except in coastal areas of Myanmar where up to 10.00 inches was reported
• Interior
  western Thailand, western Cambodia and Vietnam’s Central Highlands did not get much rain
• Southeast
  Asia rainfall recently and that which is expected in the next two weeks will continue somewhat erratic
  
• Laos,
  eastern Cambodia and northwestern Philippines will see the greatest rainfall
• Southern
  Sumatra and Java, Indonesia may experience less than usual rainfall for a while
• Thailand
  will also experience less than usual rainfall in pockets, although there has been some beneficial moisture recently

 

WEATHER
OF GREATEST INTEREST ELSEWHERE

• U.S.
  weather early to mid-week this week will be quite warm with restricted rain and net drying in much of the Midwest corn and soybean production areas
• Showers
  and thunderstorms will occur in the Great Lakes region while rain elsewhere will not be great enough to counter evaporative moisture losses
• Temperatures
  will be in the 90s with extremes near and over 100 in the northern and central Plains early this week and in the central Plains and western fringes of the Corn Belt briefly during mid-week
• Nighttime
  low temperatures will be in the 70s during the early to middle part of this week, but they should cool down to the 60s and lower 70s during the late week and weekend
• Extreme
  high temperatures in the eastern Dakotas and southwestern Minnesota southward into Missouri and Kansas will range from 95 to 105 Tuesday through Thursday
• Kansas
  and Missouri and parts of Illinois will be warm into the latter part of this week
• Any
  rain that falls will not counter evaporation through Thursday and into Friday morning outside of the Great Lakes region
• U.S.
  weather at the end of this week and during the weekend will increase in a part of the western Corn Belt with coverage reaching 40% and rainfall varying from 0.20 to 0.80 inch with a few amounts over 1.00 inch
  
• Additional
  rain is possible in a part of the western Corn Belt during the early to middle part of next week
• The
  southwestern Corn Belt is expected to be driest
• Showers
  will also impact a part of the eastern Midwest during the weekend and next week, but there will be many holes in the precipitation raising the need for follow up rain.
• Temperatures
  will not be as hot during the week and early next week as they will be over the first five days of the two week forecast, but readings will remain above normal.
  
• August
  weather is still expected to be dominated by a ridge of high pressure over western North America and a northwesterly flow pattern aloft in the east half of the continent
• Temperatures
  in the central and eastern Midwest will be below normal in the second half of the month if not sooner
• Western
  Corn Belt temperatures will still be a little warmer than usual
• Rainfall
  should continue lighter than usual in the western and northern Midwest, although these areas may not be completely dry
• Timely
  rain will fall farther to the east maintaining good eastern Midwest soil moisture
• Texas
  crops will benefit from drier and warm biased weather over the next two weeks
• Totally
  dry weather is not likely, but much of the rain that falls will not be enough to counter evaporative moisture losses
• Degree
  day accumulations in West Texas are a little below average and the warming trend will prove favorable for cotton, corn, sorghum and other crops
• Excellent
  harvest weather is expected in South Texas over the coming ten days
• U.S.
  Delta and southeastern states will experience a good mix of weather during the next two week supporting normal crop development
• The
  Delta started to dry down during the weekend as did parts of the southeastern states
• Southeast
  Canada corn, soybean and wheat production areas are seeing a very good mix of weather this summer and production potentials are high for all three crops
• Wheat
  harvesting is under way
• U.S.
  Far west will continue quite dry, although not as hot as in recent weeks
• Monsoon
  moisture in the southern U.S. Rocky Mountain region and Arizona will be frequent and significant enough to improve soil moisture and induce a little runoff
• Weekend
  rainfall in Arizona ranged from 1.00 to 2.79 inches bolstering soil moisture and easing drought.
  
• More
  than 3.00 inches occurred in north-central Arizona
• Crop
  conditions will steadily improve in Arizona because of expected rainfall
• The
  bottom line for the U.S. will maintain status quo conditions in the eastern Midwest over the next couple of weeks, but western crop areas will experience pockets of dryness and crop moisture stress will be rising in portions of the western Corn and Soybean
  Belt.
• No
  change in Canada Prairies drought status is expected over the next two weeks, despite some shower activity
• Rain
  will return to northern and western Alberta early this week and temperatures will be milder there than anywhere else
• Some
  of the rain will shift through northern and eastern parts of the Prairies late this week and into the weekend, but moisture totals will not be great enough to counter evaporation in most areas
• Another
  wave of showers will move through the northern and eastern Prairies during the first half of next week
• Rainfall
  of 0.10 to 0.60 inch will be possible in both of these rain events
• Above
  normal temperatures will continue in the central and southern Prairies minimizing the benefit from rain noted above due to high evaporation rates
• Crop
  stress and falling yield potentials will also continue
• Tropical
  Storm Nepartak will move across northern Honshu Japan Tuesday into Wednesday producing 20-40 mph wind speeds and 1.50 to 5.00 inches of rain
• The
  system will come inland as a weak tropical storm and it will then turn to the east passing through Hokkaido
• No
  crop damage is expected
• Remnants
  of Tropical Storm In-Fa will produce flooding rain from northern Zhejiang and Anhui through Jiangsu to southern Shandong this week. Rainfall of 3.00 to 8.00 inches will occur in the mouth of the Yangtze River; including the major ports and shipping areas in
  the region and including Shanghai.
• Flooding
  is expected to continue
• Rainfall
  in Jiangsu and southern Shandong will vary from 3.00 to 9.00 inches.
• Some
  rain may also impact a part of Hebei and Henan where flooding occurred last week
• Brazil
  coffee areas in Sul de Minas, northeastern Sao Paulo and southern Rio de Janeiro will be cold Friday and Saturday mornings with frost and some freezes possible
• Lowest
  temperatures will be in the range of 0 to 4 Celsius in the coolest areas of Sul de Minas while in the range of 3 to 8C in other areas from northern Parana to Sul de Minas
• A
  few harder freezes are possible
• Damage
  to coffee is expected
• Brazil
  citrus and sugarcane areas may experience a little frost during the latter part of this week
• crop
  damage should be low, but there could be some impact in a few of the coldest areas
• Frost
  and light freezes are expected in Parana to northern Rio Grande do Sul grain areas Wednesday through Friday with lows in the upper 20s and 30s Fahrenheit (-3 to +3C).
  
• Flooding
  in Hebei and Henan from last week’s record setting rainfall will continue this week, but the situation will slowly improve
• Crop
  and property damage assessments will begin as the flood water abates
• Losses
  are suspected of being tremendous
• Xinjiang,
  China was warm and dry during the weekend with highest temperatures in the 90s and lowest morning readings in the 60s and lower 70s.
  
• No
  significant rain was noted
• Weather
  over the coming week to ten days will seasonably warm with a few showers and thunderstorms, but no general soaking
• Europe
  weather was trending wetter again in the west during the weekend it will continue wet in the west this week while expanding to the east
• A
  brief break from frequent rain last week helped improve crop maturation and harvest conditions in small grain and unharvested winter rapeseed production areas
• Some
  concern over returning rainfall and crop quality declines are expected
• Periodic
  rain will continue into the first week of August maintaining some concern for the situation
• Limited
  rainfall is expected from eastern Ukraine through the middle and lower Volga River Basin and Kazakhstan during the next ten days
  
• Temperatures
  will be warmer than usual
• Some
  crop stress is expected in unirrigated areas because of already dry conditions in parts of this region
• Ivory
  Coast and Ghana rainfall will be restricted over the next couple of weeks
• Seasonal
  rainfall should return normally in September, but August rainfall will be lighter than usual
• Nigeria
  and Cameroon will receive more rain than Ghana and Ivory Coast, but amounts will still be less than usual
• East-central
  Africa rainfall will continue favorable for coffee and cocoa, although some areas in Uganda and Kenya may receive less than usual rainfall
• Ethiopia
  rainfall is expected to continue improving after a slow start to the rainy season
• Southern
  Oscillation Index has reached +15.32 and it is peaking after a strong rising trend since June 22 when the index  was -3.36
• Brazil
  will see some periodic rain in the south over the next week to ten days favoring wheat development and improving topsoil moisture for use in the early corn planting season which is approaching next month
• However,
  frost and freezes late this week could temporarily injure some of the wheat crop
• Argentina
  weather will be mostly dry over the next ten days
• Showers
  will occur briefly in the east today into Monday
• Some
  winter wheat would welcome rain especially in the west, but crop  conditions are much better than last year at this time
• Crops
  are mostly semi-dormant right now
• No
  meaningful precipitation fell during the weekend
• Australia
  weather this month has been ideal for improving winter wheat, barley and canola establishment in much of the nation
• Some
  additional rain is still needed in South Australia, northwestern Victoria and from western New South Wales to Queensland
• Most
  of the nation except Queensland will get rain over the next ten days
• South
  Africa has been cold during the past week with waves of rain in the southwest
• Weekend
  weather was still cool, but rain ended in many areas
• The
  moisture has been good for future wheat development
• Dryness
  remains in some of the unirrigated eastern wheat production areas
• Some
  warming is expected over the coming week, but the precipitation anomalies will prevail
• Cool
  weather has wheat development semi-dormant
• Mexico
  weather has improved with increased rainfall in the south and west parts of the nation
• Drought
  conditions are waning, and crops are performing better
• Dryness
  remains in Chihuahua and northeastern parts of the nation
• Weather
  over the next ten days will offer some relief, but more rain will be needed in the drier areas
• Central
  America rainfall has been plentiful and will remain that way
• Both
  Honduras and Nicaragua have received frequent bouts of rain this month easing long term dryness, but more may be needed in some locations
• New
  Zealand rainfall during the coming week will be near to above normal in western portions of South Island while near to below average in most other areas
• Temperatures
  will be seasonable

Source:
World Weather Inc. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Monday,
July 26:

• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• U.S.
  crop conditions – corn, cotton, soybeans, wheat, 4pm
• MARS
  monthly EU crop conditions report
• Malaysia
  July 1-25 palm oil export data (tentative)
• UN
  Food Systems Pre-Summit in Rome
• Ivory
  Coast cocoa arrivals
• HOLIDAY:
  Thailand

Tuesday,
July 27:

• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• UN
  Food Systems Pre-Summit in Rome
• EARNINGS:
  ADM

Wednesday,
July 28:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
• Brazil
  Unica cane crush, sugar production (tentative)
• UN
  Food Systems Pre-Summit in Rome
• HOLIDAY:
  Thailand
• EARNINGS:
  Bunge, Pilgrim’s Pride

Thursday,
July 29:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
• International
  Grains Council monthly report
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports

Friday,
July 30:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• U.S.
  agricultural prices paid, received

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

USDA
inspections versus Reuters trade range                                            

Wheat            
477,964           versus  300000-600000           range

Corn               
1,036,910        versus  700000-1200000         range

Soybeans        
241,897           versus  90000-300000             range

 

 

 

GRAINS
INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT

                 
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING JUL 22, 2021

                           
— METRIC TONS —

————————————————————————–

                                                  
CURRENT     PREVIOUS 

             ———–
WEEK ENDING ———-  MARKET YEAR  MARKET YEAR

 
GRAIN      07/22/2021  07/15/2021  07/23/2020    TO DATE     TO DATE  

 

BARLEY           
698         200           0        2,817          416 

CORN       
1,036,910   1,076,668     840,796   61,276,281   37,358,824 

FLAXSEED          
24           0           0           24          317 

MIXED              
0           0           0           48            0 

OATS               
0           0           0          100          600 

RYE                
0           0           0            0            0 

SORGHUM       
90,792      63,192      84,084    6,710,753    4,350,597 

SOYBEANS     
241,897     143,934     505,331   58,041,712   38,826,741 

SUNFLOWER        
  0           0           0          240            0 

WHEAT        
477,964     532,898     544,010    3,344,650    4,130,890 

Total      
1,848,285   1,816,892   1,974,221  129,376,625   84,668,385 

————————————————————————-

CROP
MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND

FLAXSEED; 
SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.

INCLUDES
WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

 

Macros

US
New Home Sales Jun: 676K (est 800k; prev 769K; prevR 724K)

–
US New Home Sales (M/M) Jun: -6.6% (est 4.0%; prev-5.9%; -7.8%)

–
US Median Sales Price (Y/Y)Jun: $361,800 (prev $374,400)

70
Counterparties Take $891.203 Bln At Fed’s Fixed-Rate Reverse Repo (prev $877.251 Bln, 76 Bidders)

 

Corn

• Corn
  opened lower but closed higher after the midday weather models turned drier for the WCB.  USDA export inspections showed China took nearly 500,000 tons of US corn, a positive sign they still need the grain.  Earlier corn and soybeans were on the defensive
  in part to increasing concerns over China/US political relations.  CZ traded below its 100-day MA of 5.3650 on and off before rallying to settle higher by 3.75 cents.  
  
• Minnesota
  through WI and Michigan saw good rain over the past week that improved conditions.  The US weather forecast does still call for some rain to develop across the US WCB over the next seven days.
  
• Funds
  bought an estimated net 3,000 corn contracts. 
• US
  corn conditions fell one point to 64 percent good/excellent, one point below a 5-year average.  Traders were looking for US corn conditions to be unchanged from the previous week.  IL was up 3, IN unchanged and IA down 3.  ND was down 8, KS down 5, CO down
  4, and MN fell 4 points.  MI increased 8 points. 
• At
  this stage for the development of the US corn crop, it’s possible to see the ECB, Delta and some parts of the southeast to offset losses for the upper and far northwestern Corn Belt yield losses.  Our thinking is we see at least a 175 plus national US corn
  yield when updated by USDA in August.  We are currently at 177.0 for the August yield.  ECB corn conditions are running about 1.9% above a 5-year average while WCB off 3.7%, on our adjusted CP index. 
  

• The
  US weather forecast for August still calls for a ridge of high pressure over western North America and a northwesterly flow pattern aloft in the east half of the continent, according to World Weather.  Temperatures for the western Corn Belt will be warmer
  than normal while the ECB temperatures near to below normal.  Rainfall will be lighter than usual in the western and northern Midwest. 
  
• USDA
  US corn export inspections as of July 22, 2021 were 1,036,910 tons, within a range of trade expectations, below 1,076,668 tons previous week and compares to 840,796 tons year ago. Major countries included China for 489,820 tons, Japan for 251,546 tons, and
  Mexico for 213,778 tons.
• JBS
  noted they purchased 30 shiploads of corn from Argentina for their Brazil feedlots, about 25% of the corn it is using as feed (surpassing 1 million tons). 
  
• Argentina
  declared a 180-day state of water emergency.  A Reuters exclusive noted Argentina grain shipping must be cut by 25 percent due to severely low water levels.  About 80 percent of Argentina’s Parana river carries farm goods.  Water levels are at their lowest
  level in 77 years. 

 

USDA
Attaché: Argentina Grain and Feed update https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Grain%20and%20Feed%20Update_Buenos%20Aires_Argentina_07-20-2021.pdf

Post
warned a dry spring could prompt Argentina producers to plant late planted corn.  We heard the Argentina soybean area could be down around 3% next season, in part to higher returns for corn, but it makes sense that producers expecting a delayed start to spring
seedings would wait and plant corn instead.  Post has 2021 corn production at 48.8 million tons, 300,000 higher than USDA official.  2022 is expected to be 51.5 million tons, 500,000 above USDA. 

 

 

Since
April 20, managed money managers were net sellers of corn 11 out of the last 14 weeks.  Last week they added 14,503 contracts to the long position. 

 

Export
developments.

• Jordan
  seeks 120,000 tons of feed barley on July 28 for Nov/Dec shipment. 

 

Updated
07/26/21

September
corn is seen is a $5.00-$6.25 range (up 25, unch)

December
corn is seen in a $4.25-$6.00 range.

 

Soybeans

• Soybean
  complex traded lower on improving US weather this morning but turned higher in part to a drier midday weather forecast and rally in soybean oil.  Some noted the weakness earlier in soybeans was due to the US/China political/trade relations breaking down, and
  rising cases of Covid-19.  The White House this morning said they will not lift Covid travel restrictions.  USDA export inspections were within expectations. 
  
• SX
  ended at 13.5775, up 6.0 cents near its 20-day MA of 13.59/bu. 
• Funds
  bought an estimated net 7,000 soybeans, sold 1,000 soybean meal and bought 4,000 soybean oil. 
  
• US
  soybean conditions fell an unexpected 2 points to 58 percent, below a 5-year average of 64 percent.  Traders were looking for US soybean conditions to be unchanged.  IL increased 4 points, IM was down 1 and IA declined 5 points.  KS fell 6 and MN dropped 7. 
  MI increased 8 points and Missouri was up 5. 

• USDA
  US soybean export inspections as of July 22, 2021 were 241,897 tons, within a range of trade expectations, above 143,934 tons previous week and compares to 505,331 tons year ago. Major countries included Mexico for 106,726 tons, Bangladesh for 59,547 tons,
  and Indonesia for 20,177 tons.
• CBOT
  soybean registrations are now zero after 13 were cancelled Friday evening. 
  

• November
  Canadian canola rebounded to end higher.  
• Palm
  oil futures rallied Monday, and this lent support to soybean oil.  ITS reported July 1-25 Malaysian palm exports at 1.137 million tons, down 0.5% from the same period a month earlier.  AmSpec reported a 4% decrease to 1.127 million tons and SGS was not out
  at the time this was written. 
• India
  import margins favor RBD palm oil over crude palm and SBO.  Sunflower oil is also profitable to import. 
  
• Latest
  palm production figures indicate a 6% decrease during the July 1-25^th period versus 5% decline through the 20^th. 
  

 

Export
Developments

• Last
  week the USDA bought 14,500 tons of vegetable oil under the PL480 program.  Prices reportedly range from $2186.52 to $2777.77 per ton. 
  
• The
  USDA seeks 2,880 tons of packaged oil for use under the PL480 program on August 3 for Sep 1-30 shipment. 
  

 

Updated
7/26/21

August
soybeans are seen in a $13.50-$15.00 range (up 25, down 25);
November $11.75-$15.00

August
soybean meal – $330-$400 (unch, down $10);
December $320-$425

August
soybean oil – 64.50-70.00; December 48-67 cent range

 

Wheat

• US
  wheat ended
  lower in all three markets on improving US weather, but there is still uncertainty over global supplies.  The US spring wheat tour will begin this week and we don’t look for much in the way for positive news. September Chicago wheat finished 7 cents lower,
  September KC down 7 cents, and September Minneapolis 4.50 cents lower.  The three day break in futures caught the attention for a couple major importers.  US export developments have been quiet over the past few business days, but this afternoon Turkey floated
  an import tender for wheat and barley.  Then Egypt announced they are in for wheat for September 20-30 shipment. 
  
• Funds
  sold an estimated net 5,000 SRW wheat contracts. 
• US
  spring wheat conditions fell two points to nine for the good/excellent categories. Traders were looking for a one point drop in US spring wheat conditions.  Montana was down 8 and Minnesota off 6.  Idaho increased 5 points.  We lowered our spring and durum
  wheat production estimate but remain close to USDA’s latest estimate.  We may adjust lower our spring and durum yield for the purpose of the August USDA
  Crop
  Production
  survey based results of this week’s spring wheat crop tour. 
  Winter wheat harvest progress was 84 percent complete, as expected.  US spring wheat harvest was 3 percent complete, one point below expectations. 
  

• USDA
  US all-wheat export inspections as of July 22, 2021 were 477,964 tons, within a range of trade expectations, below 532,898 tons previous week and compares to 544,010 tons year ago. Major countries included Mexico for 91,036 tons, China for 67,634 tons, and
  Philippines for 57,200 tons.
• Canada
  Prairies drought conditions will persist over the next two weeks, but some rain is expected here than there.  
  
• After
  trading lower most of the day, December milling wheat closed 0.75 or 0.35% higher at 215 euros a ton.
  
• Argentina’s
  shipping woes due to low water levels may extend into the fourth quarter (OND) that could disrupt 2021 wheat shipments.  Argentina harvests wheat December through January.  
  
• Russia’s
  southern region of Krasnodar harvested a record grain crop of 12.4 million tons, according to its governor.  Krasnodar is one of the largest wheat producing and exporting areas of the country, according to Reuters. 
  
• Russian
  wheat export prices with 12.5% protein loading from Black Sea were $248 a ton at the end of last week, up $7 from the previous week, according to IKAR. SovEcon reported a $6 rise to $245 per ton.
• USDA
  Attaché: Australia wheat production in the 2021-22 season that starts in October is now seen at 29.5 million tons, above the official USDA estimate of 28.5 million tons.
  
• Political
  tensions have increased in Tunisia after the president removed the prime minister out of office and froze parliament.  Some are calling it a coup. 
  https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/tunisian-president-relieves-prime-minister-his-post-2021-07-25/
  
• Morocco
  harvested 10.3 million tons of grains, up 221% from last year, according to the AgMin, including 5.6 million tons of soft wheat, 2.48 million durum and 2.78 million barley.

Export
Developments. 

• Turkey’s
  TMO seeks up to around 900,000 tons of 11.5-12.5% milling wheat (395k) and feed barley (515k) for late September 16-30 shipment.  The barley is sought on August 3 and wheat on August 4. Turkey is one of Russia’s best customer. 
  
• Results
  awaited: Ethiopia seeks 400,000 tons of wheat on July 19. 

• Pakistan’s
  TCP seeks 500,000 tons of wheat on July 27.  200,000 tons are for August shipment, and 300,000 tons are for September shipment.

 

Rice/Other

• Mauritius
  seeks 6,000 tons of white rice on July 27 for October through December shipment. 
  

 

Updated
7/26/21

September Chicago wheat is seen in a $6.25-$7.50 range

September KC wheat is seen in a $5.90-$7.25

September MN wheat is seen in a $8.10-$9.25
(up 35, down 25)